News Article: Treatment Of New Sea Ice Study Highlights Alarmist View Of Conflicting Evidence

CajunCrimson

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The Earth is billions of years old. We have quality data for about 50 of those years.

Sort of like How Oregon over values their place in College Football History.

Seems to me that the better the equipment used to measure this stuff, the less Global Warming exists.
 

twofbyc

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Um, not really. The global warming predictions, which are still only half-formed, if that, because of the complexities of climate, predict more extremes - which may shift. Stormier storms, etc. I used to live in New York. If you'd suggested that there might be a tornado in NY in July, I'd've thought you were crazy...
This is precisely why I think most of us on here look up to you, because you make sense with every post. Almost all of the rest of us (myself included) are guilty of taking positions that don't, for various reasons.
Having been born and raised and spent 99 percent of my life living in the Mobile area, I can say with certainty that we NEVER had tornadoes here before, at least through my first 50-plus years. And I'd wager (yeah, I might lose) that there weren't any in the 50 before that. Climate IS changing - we are having mornings in the 60s in July...in Mobile. Unheard of. We've already broken a few morning low records and are about to break more. There have only been a few days this summer that have had highs over 95, and more than a few where the high never reached 90 (and some had nothing to do with rain). In Mobile. Again, unheard of.
 

NationalTitles18

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This is precisely why I think most of us on here look up to you, because you make sense with every post. Almost all of the rest of us (myself included) are guilty of taking positions that don't, for various reasons.
Having been born and raised and spent 99 percent of my life living in the Mobile area, I can say with certainty that we NEVER had tornadoes here before, at least through my first 50-plus years. And I'd wager (yeah, I might lose) that there weren't any in the 50 before that. Climate IS changing - we are having mornings in the 60s in July...in Mobile. Unheard of. We've already broken a few morning low records and are about to break more. There have only been a few days this summer that have had highs over 95, and more than a few where the high never reached 90 (and some had nothing to do with rain). In Mobile. Again, unheard of.
Let's just say you would lose the bet. Badly.
 

gmart74

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Um, not really. The global warming predictions, which are still only half-formed, if that, because of the complexities of climate, predict more extremes - which may shift.
The point I'm making is that if you have the coldest winter on record. Then based on averaging, you would then need the summer to be twice as hot above normal to get the average to be overall hottest on record for the yr. I realize that is dumbing it down quite a bit, generalizing quite a bit, etc. But especially when we saw the brutally cold winter in euroope a couple yrs ago, yet that summer wasnt out of the ordinary hot, it makes it hard to believe we have this continuous "hottest yr ever" streak happening.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_2009–10_in_Europe
up to -20 below average
so you would need to balance that -20 with some other dramatic increase in summer. where is this dramatic temp increase? i would guess the oceans rise a little bit, and bc of their massive area/volume, that creates an overall rise in average temp. fine, i agree with that explanation. however i have one problem with it- land always has more extreme temp fluctuations than water. so if we are seeing -20 temps from average, why arent we seeing +20 over average for the summer. i understand el nino and polar vortexes can change things up yr to yr but why are we not seeing +20 anywhere on earth for a week or two in summer in any yr since then?
 
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PacadermaTideUs

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This is precisely why I think most of us on here look up to you, because you make sense with every post. Almost all of the rest of us (myself included) are guilty of taking positions that don't, for various reasons.
Having been born and raised and spent 99 percent of my life living in the Mobile area, I can say with certainty that we NEVER had tornadoes here before, at least through my first 50-plus years. And I'd wager (yeah, I might lose) that there weren't any in the 50 before that. Climate IS changing - we are having mornings in the 60s in July...in Mobile. Unheard of. We've already broken a few morning low records and are about to break more. There have only been a few days this summer that have had highs over 95, and more than a few where the high never reached 90 (and some had nothing to do with rain). In Mobile. Again, unheard of.
I'm not saying you're wrong that the climate is changing. It may or may not be. But as a point of fact, Mobile and Baldwin counties are historically an Alabama hotspot for tornadoes. All I can say is that maybe during your first 50 years, you just didn't become aware of them until recently.



As for temperature variability, the United States is actually on a downswing for the number of records set per year as compared to past decades. That says nothing about whether or not the US is, on average, warmer or cooler than it was in the past. But we do set fewer records nowadays than we used to. So maybe a low of 60 in July is shocking to you. But in the grand scheme of things, it's really not that unusual to set a new record. By the way, the record low for Mobile for the upcoming month of August (which for Mobile is statistically just as warm as July) is 59 according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center, 57 according to the Weather Channel.

 

NationalTitles18

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search by yr with the upper tab it goes back to 1950. and yes there were tornadoes back in the day.
Yes, but I couldn't tell what you were trying to say. Of course there were tornadoes. IIRC, the first recorded tornado in the history of Alabama occurred in Mobile-Washington Co.'s and occurred in 1774. I may be off by a few years and it may not be the first.

As for two's cold summer temps, I doubt even he is old enough to remember the year without a summer, so it probably never happened either.
 

Bamaro

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They don't specifically say, and that is a pertinent question with regard to the overall debate concerning total ice growth or shrinkage. The actual study however does repeatedly use terms such as "coverage" and "extent", while avoiding terms like "mass", etc. So I have to think that its focus was restricted to area vs volume.

My
focus in the original post however was restricted to the LA Times and several of its sources' reaction to the study, and their clear disappointment (in my view, cbi1972's opinion notwithstanding) with expanding antarctic sea ice. Shouldn't this be viewed as good news?
Yes, if the mass/volume is increasing that would be good news as it offsets whats happening in the Atctic
 

gmart74

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Yes, if the mass/volume is increasing that would be good news as it offsets whats happening in the Atctic
that is partially the problem with the area vs volume measurements and what makes the discussion a little more complicated than it simply being a number greater than or less than x yrs ago. a mile thick ice is obviously different than an inch thick ice even if they cover the same area. likewise, if arctic ice reduces area by 10 square miles, yet thickens on average 40 feet, then what do we pull out of that? add in arctic currents, and how they may reduce ice in one area and add ice in another and now we really complicate the issue. now add in a factor of what is more important:
1. area which dramatically influences how much light and heat are absorbed into the ocean vs reflected by ice OR
2. volume where you have ice extending deep into the ocean and thus helping to cool deep currents and perform a higher efficiency cooling overall of ocean temps.

so that is why i openly ridicule manbearpig when he says "the science is settled." not only is it not settled, we dont even know the most important factors on which to settle on. so now it has come out that we dont even have consistent and accurate measurements and every single model has had an incorrect warming bias that they cant explain. that tells me they have no clue what they are doing at this point and it is irresponsible to claim they can make predictions and policy suggestions. their science is terrible.
 

Tidewater

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This whole debates strikes me as having alarming similarities to a religious debate.
There are members of my family who will literally scream "You shall not question!" when it comes to questioning methodology. I mean, it truly brings to mind an image of Cardinal Torquemada in the Inquisition. No medieval monk can outdo my father, for example, in dogmatic, almost violent faith and absolute closed-mindedness when it come to man-made global warming.
Me, I'm willing to discuss the science, evaluate methodologies, and use measurables to improve theories. The earth is a closed environment with trilllions of trillions of variables, so developing a model that will accurately predict how it will behave will be difficult.
 
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Tide1986

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There are members of my family who will literally scream "You shall not question!" when it comes to questioning methodology. I mean, it truly brings to mind an image of Cardinal Torquemada in the Inquisition. No medieval monk can outdo my father, for example, in dogmatic, almost violent faith and absolute closed-mindedness when it come to man-made global warming.
You can't Torquemada anything?
 

Tidewater

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You can't Torquemada anything?
Yeah, I was thinking about that as I was typing.
Seriously, though, you could have a normal conversation with my father and then just mention being a wee skeptical about man-made global warming (or mention the article form the OP here in this thread) and my father will be literally frothing at the mouth and screaming at you in thirty seconds.
Yes, he's an Obama supporter.
 

TIDE-HSV

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Yeah, I was thinking about that as I was typing.
Seriously, though, you could have a normal conversation with my father and then just mention being a wee skeptical about man-made global warming (or mention the article form the OP here in this thread) and my father will be literally frothing at the mouth and screaming at you in thirty seconds.
Yes, he's an Obama supporter.
Ah! The family "aginner"... :D
 

twofbyc

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Let's just say you would lose the bet. Badly.


let me clarify....the Mobile "coastal" area. My Mom is 92 and from here and she swears we never had one in her lifetime up until recently. Calvert is 60 miles inland, so I wasn't going that far. By Mobile area I meant Mobile "metropolitan" area.
 

twofbyc

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I'm not saying you're wrong that the climate is changing. It may or may not be. But as a point of fact, Mobile and Baldwin counties are historically an Alabama hotspot for tornadoes. All I can say is that maybe during your first 50 years, you just didn't become aware of them until recently.





As for temperature variability, the United States is actually on a downswing for the number of records set per year as compared to past decades. That says nothing about whether or not the US is, on average, warmer or cooler than it was in the past. But we do set fewer records nowadays than we used to. So maybe a low of 60 in July is shocking to you. But in the grand scheme of things, it's really not that unusual to set a new record. By the way, the record low for Mobile for the upcoming month of August (which for Mobile is statistically just as warm as July) is 59 according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center, 57 according to the Weather Channel.

because they happened outside of Mobile (at the time they hit) and were in unincorporated areas of the county...? So, yes, we probably would not have heard about them when I was 1-10. Weather reporting was nowhere near what it is today. I stick with my "none in Mobile 'proper' " except the last 15-20 years. A lot of these locations were well outside of the city limits (at the time) when they hit, and in sparsely populated areas (at the time). and some of them on the list I am looking at have a "'0" under the F-scale - waterspout maybe? Doesn't it actually have to be an F1 at least to be a tornado? If not, then, yeah, we have had thousands. As for the year with no summer....no, at 61 I don't remember that. Since I played outside all summer long since I was 3 I think I might have remembered.
 
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PacadermaTideUs

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because they happened outside of Mobile (at the time they hit) and were in unincorporated areas of the county...? So, yes, we probably would not have heard about them when I was 1-10. Weather reporting was nowhere near what it is today. I stick with my "none in Mobile 'proper' " except the last 15-20 years. A lot of these locations were well outside of the city limits (at the time) when they hit, and in sparsely populated areas (at the time). and some of them on the list I am looking at have a "'0" under the F-scale - waterspout maybe? Doesn't it actually have to be an F1 at least to be a tornado? If not, then, yeah, we have had thousands. As for the year with no summer....no, at 61 I don't remember that. Since I played outside all summer long since I was 3 I think I might have remembered.
No. An F0 is still a tornado. Most waterspouts are FO-strength, though truly, you really need to look at the damage it caused to measure its strength on the Fujita scale. Unfortunately (or fortunately), there's very little damage to inspect out over the water.
 

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