Talking heads don't really get punished for off-the-wall predictions. I've always compared it to a southern weatherman predicting snow. Miss and no one remembers (particularly if you insulated yourself with enough disclaimers). Hit one, and you're a guru for life...
I'm sure you remember Corky Simpson, the AP writer from Arizona who picked Alabama as number one in the 1992 pre-season poll. ESPN went after him in their October 30, 1992 SportsCenter, ridiculing the fact Simpson would not pick either Miami or Washington (or Florida State), teams everyone "knew" would beat Alabama if they played.
But Simpson was classy. When it was over, he penned a column in "The Sporting News" saying that "vindication was not mine, it was Alabama's." He even admitted he was hardly a genius, noting that his "genius" had picked the Patriots to beat the Bears in Super Bowl XX. But that's how the pundit business works: make an absolutely off-the-wall projection that's wrong and nobody remembers (well, I will but that's another story). If it comes to pass, you're an insightful genius. It's the lowest risk proposition there is (other than betting on the fact everyone will die).
