Eight of Alabama's Nine Losses Have a Common Theme Based on Opponents

RTR91 · Aug 11, 2014

Brad Edwards filled in for Finebaum a few days last week while he did his book tour. Brad started talking about how some think the Auburn and Oklahoma games are signs of Alabama's dynasty coming to an end. He disagreed and provided a few examples. One of which was the record of the teams that have beaten Alabama since 2008. Take a look:

2008 Florida: 13-1
2008 Utah: 13-0
2010 South Carolina: 9-5
2010 LSU: 11-2
2010 Auburn: 14-0
2011 LSU: 13-1
2012 Texas A&M: 11-2
2013 Auburn: 12-2
2013 Oklahoma: 11-2

All of the teams but 2010 South Carolina won at least 11 games. That South Carolina team did win the SEC East, though. We haven't had a game like the 2006 USC-UCLA game where we lose to a 6-5 team. Edwards pointed to those type games as "cracks" in the dynasty.

selmaborntidefan · Aug 11, 2014

I want to wring the necks of the pundits who want to pretend, yes I said PRETEND, that we "have a problem with the HUNH." Go back and look at those games. In most of those we lost the turnover battle, in all of them we made some stupid penalties, and ABSOLUTELY in all of them we failed to capitalize at critical junctures (the second half of 2010 IB and fourth quarter of 2013 IB are frighteningly similar as far as failing to capitalize).

They dynasty will be over (and yes folks, it will end one day) when we lose to a 41-point underdog (2007 USC-Stanford).

JBama_in_PCOLA · Aug 11, 2014

selmaborntidefan said:
I want to wring the necks of the pundits who want to pretend, yes I said PRETEND, that we "have a problem with the HUNH." Go back and look at those games. In most of those we lost the turnover battle, in all of them we made some stupid penalties, and ABSOLUTELY in all of them we failed to capitalize at critical junctures (the second half of 2010 IB and fourth quarter of 2013 IB are frighteningly similar as far as failing to capitalize).

They dynasty will be over (and yes folks, it will end one day) when we lose to a 41-point underdog (2007 USC-Stanford).

Agreed, but I don't think we will lose to a 41 point dog though.

BamaMoon · Aug 11, 2014

In almost everyone of those losses you can trace it back to three things:

1. They had a "hot" qb that game.
2. We missed some key field goals and/or lost fumbles that the other team turned into points.
3. We lost focus after having a big first half lead.

Bamabuzzard · Aug 11, 2014

BamaMoon said:
In almost everyone of those losses you can trace it back to three things:

1. They had a "hot" qb that game.
2. We missed some key field goals and/or lost fumbles that the other team turned into points.
3. We lost focus after having a big first half lead.

Gary Danielson has long said that a "hot qb" is a MUST to beat Alabama. In almost all of those games that is exactly what happened. Number #3 has also unfortunately been the case. I'm not sure why. Maybe it had something to do with winning too much. (I can't believe I just typed that.)

bamaslammer · Aug 11, 2014

I think we have had a problem with the HUNH teams and we are going to be force fed it until we defeat it but most of that problem in my opinion had more to do with personnel than schematic. We adjusted recruiting two years ago to address it but it just takes time to get in and coach em up. I think you start seeing the benefit this season.

The press wants to phrase it like Gus is some mad genius and Saban is a dumb ape who can't adjust. There is nothing new or hard to figure out about this variation, you just have to have the type of players who can counter it.

I still say our reason for losing to Auburn and Oklahoma were on the offensive side of the ball. We couldn't buy a first down in the second half of either game. If you convert 3rd downs we win, period, as in ALWAYS.

BamaMoon · Aug 11, 2014

Bamabuzzard said:
Gary Danielson has long said that a "hot qb" is a MUST to beat Alabama. In almost all of those games that is exactly what happened. Number #3 has also unfortunately been the case. I'm not sure why. Maybe it had something to do with winning too much. (I can't believe I just typed that.)

Exactly. Can't usually do much about the random "hot" qb other than hope it doesn't happen to you.

There are steps to take to help with #2: especially turnovers, but turnovers and missed fgs are a part of the game the seem to rise up and bite you when you least expect it.

#3: NEEDS TO BE FIXED, LIKE YESTERDAY.

Bamabuzzard · Aug 11, 2014

bamaslammer said:
I think we have had a problem with the HUNH teams and we are going to be force fed it until we defeat it but most of that problem in my opinion had more to do with personnel than schematic. We adjusted recruiting two years ago to address it but it just takes time to get in and coach em up. I think you start seeing the benefit this season.

The press wants to phrase it like Gus is some mad genius and Saban is a dumb ape who can't adjust. There is nothing new or hard to figure out about this variation, you just have to have the type of players who can counter it.

I still say our reason for losing to Auburn and Oklahoma were on the offensive side of the ball. We couldn't buy a first down in the second half of either game. If you convert 3rd downs we win, period, as in ALWAYS.

This is about as sure of a thing as the sun coming up. We can sit here and talk about the HUNH hasn't been our "problem" in the games we just so happened to lose against teams that ran them. Personally, I agree with Saban and others in that it really isn't the HUNH in and of itself giving us the problems. But it is a perceived problem and other teams are going to pick at it like a festering sore until we consistently shut it down.

cuda.1973 · Aug 11, 2014

bamaslammer said:
I think we have had a problem with the HUNH teams and we are going to be force fed it until we defeat it but most of that problem in my opinion had more to do with personnel than schematic. We adjusted recruiting two years ago to address it but it just takes time to get in and coach em up. I think you start seeing the benefit this season.

The press wants to phrase it like Gus is some mad genius and Saban is a dumb ape who can't adjust. There is nothing new or hard to figure out about this variation, you just have to have the type of players who can counter it.

I still say our reason for losing to Auburn and Oklahoma were on the offensive side of the ball. We couldn't buy a first down in the second half of either game. If you convert 3rd downs we win, period, as in ALWAYS.

So, which one is it? Either we have problems with HUNH, or the reason we lost is on the offensive side.? I say the latter. Add the first aTm game to that list, and for the same reason.

BamaMoon · Aug 11, 2014

bamaslammer said:
I think we have had a problem with the HUNH teams and we are going to be force fed it until we defeat it but most of that problem in my opinion had more to do with personnel than schematic. We adjusted recruiting two years ago to address it but it just takes time to get in and coach em up. I think you start seeing the benefit this season.

The press wants to phrase it like Gus is some mad genius and Saban is a dumb ape who can't adjust. There is nothing new or hard to figure out about this variation, you just have to have the type of players who can counter it.

I still say our reason for losing to Auburn and Oklahoma were on the offensive side of the ball. We couldn't buy a first down in the second half of either game. If you convert 3rd downs we win, period, as in ALWAYS.

No reasons we should have given up the lead we had against Auburn, in 2010 and 2013. With Oklahoma we got bit by two things:

1. They had a hot qb.
2. We lost too many fumbles that they turned into points.

Ironically, I also think we were pretty focused at the beginning of the game (remember our first drive?), but we may have lost that when they picked up the intensity as the game wore on.

GrayTide · Aug 11, 2014

I don't think anyone, especially me, has ever said or indicated that our "dynasty" is coming to an end now or any time soon. What some of us have said, is that the SEC is a brutal conference and in spite of all our perceived advantages in talent and coaching, we can still lose.

bamaga · Aug 11, 2014

Delete

RTR91 · Aug 11, 2014

BamaMoon said:
In almost everyone of those losses you can trace it back to three things:

I tend to agree with you. Since I'm bored at work, I decided to look at the three points and their relation to each game.

1. They had a "hot" qb that game.

2008, Florida: Tim Tebow had a 83.0 QBR.
2008, Utah: Brian Johnson had a 85.5 QBR.
2010, South Carolina: Steven Garcia had a 87.8 QBR.
2010, LSU: Jarrett Lee had a 24.5 QBR, and Jordan Jefferson had a 35.5 QBR.
2010, Auburn: Cam Newton had a 61.0 QBR.
2011, LSU: Jordan Jefferson had a 39.9 QBR, and Jarrett Lee had a 7.0 QBR.
2012, Texas A&M: Johnny Manziel had a 82.4 QBR.
2013, Auburn: Nick Marshall had a 80.9 QBR.
2013, Oklahoma: Trevor Knight had a 84.2 QBR.

2. We missed some key field goals and/or lost fumbles that the other team turned into points.

Game	Fumbles	INTs	FGs	Opponent Points Off Turnovers and Missed FGs
2008, Florida	0	1	2/2	0
2008, Utah	1	2	1/3	10
2010, South Carolina	1	0	2/3	7
2010, LSU	1	1	0	6
2010, Auburn	2	0	2/2	0
2011, LSU	0	2	2/6	6
2012, Texas A&M	1	2	1/1	13
2013, Auburn	0	0	0/4	13
2013, Oklahoma	3	2	1/2	28
Total	9	10	11/22	83

3. We lost focus after having a big first half lead.

Bama only held the lead at halftime in three of those games.

A bigger factor, along with the missed FGs, is the failure to convert third and fourth downs.

Game	Third Down	Fourth Down	Opponent Points Off Failed Conversions
2008, Florida	5-12	0-1	24
2008, Utah	4-13	0-0	14
2010, South Carolina	5-13	2-3	14
2010, LSU	7-14	0-0	15
2010, Auburn	3-12	3-4	7
2011, LSU	5-13	0-0	0
2012, Texas A&M	7-15	1-2	13
2013, Auburn	4-13	1-2	7
2013, Oklahoma	6-12	0-0	7
Total	46-117	7-12	101

RTR91 · Aug 11, 2014

GrayTide said:
I don't think anyone, especially me, has ever said or indicated that our "dynasty" is coming to an end now or any time soon. What some of us have said, is that the SEC is a brutal conference and in spite of all our perceived advantages in talent and coaching, we can still lose.

Brad wasn't really talking about fans. He was talking about members of the media.

BamaMoon · Aug 11, 2014

RTR91 said:
I tend to agree with you. Since I'm bored at work, I decided to look at the three points and their relation to each game.

2008, Florida: Tim Tebow had a 83.0 QBR.
2008, Utah: Brian Johnson had a 85.5 QBR.
2010, South Carolina: Steven Garcia had a 87.8 QBR.
2010, LSU: Jarrett Lee had a 24.5 QBR, and Jordan Jefferson had a 35.5 QBR.
2010, Auburn: Cam Newton had a 61.0 QBR.
2011, LSU: Jordan Jefferson had a 39.9 QBR, and Jarrett Lee had a 7.0 QBR.
2012, Texas A&M: Johnny Manziel had a 82.4 QBR.
2013, Auburn: Nick Marshall had a 80.9 QBR.
2013, Oklahoma: Trevor Knight had a 84.2 QBR.

Game Fumbles INTs FGs
2008, Florida 0 1 2/2
2008, Utah 1 2 1/3
2010, South Carolina 1 0 2/3
2010, LSU 1 1 0
2010, Auburn 2 0 2/2
2011, LSU 0 2 2/6
2012, Texas A&M 1 2 1/1
2013, Auburn 0 0 0/4
2013, Oklahoma 3 2 1/2
Total 9 10 11/22

Bama only held the lead at halftime in three of those games.

A bigger factor, along with the missed FGs, is the failure to convert third and fourth downs.

Game Third Down Fourth Down
2008, Florida
5-12 0-1
2008, Utah 4-13 0-0
2010, South Carolina 5-13 2-3
2010, LSU 7-14 0-0
2010, Auburn 3-12 3-4
2011, LSU 5-13 0-0
2012, Texas A&M 7-15 1-2
2013, Auburn 4-13 1-2
2013, Oklahoma 6-12 0-0
Total 46-117 7-12

You should get "bored" at work more often! Good stuff!

One of those fumbles against the Barn in 2010 was the one MI fumbled (when it looked like we would score again) and the ball inexplicably rolled 30 yards down the sideline without ever bouncing out of bounds and out of the back of the endzone. Craziest thing I've ever seen and it was the best proof anyone could have offered of it being a "God thing."

Sometimes blind luck goes against you and sometimes it works for you. That time it went against us!

TouchThatThang · Aug 11, 2014

Bamabuzzard said:
This is about as sure of a thing as the sun coming up. We can sit here and talk about the HUNH hasn't been our "problem" in the games we just so happened to lose against teams that ran them. Personally, I agree with Saban and others in that it really isn't the HUNH in and of itself giving us the problems. But it is a perceived problem and other teams are going to pick at it like a festering sore until we consistently shut it down.

Jordan Jefferson, the option, and the numbers 21-0 came to mind when I read this post.

Rolltide_PA · Aug 11, 2014

doesn't hurt to run for 100+ yards either

142 = Florida 2008
13 = Utah 2009
110 = South Carolina 2010
225 = LSU 2010
108 = Auburn 2010
148 = LSU 2011
165 = Texas A&M 212
296 = Auburn 2013
81 = Oklahoma 2014

so to beat Bama you should have a team capable of winning 11+ games, hopefully have a qb put up an 80+ rating, rush for 100 yards, and force 2 turnovers/game. easy enough

Really Big Bama Fan · Aug 11, 2014

bamaslammer said:
I think we have had a problem with the HUNH teams and we are going to be force fed it until we defeat it but most of that problem in my opinion had more to do with personnel than schematic. We adjusted recruiting two years ago to address it but it just takes time to get in and coach em up. I think you start seeing the benefit this season.

The press wants to phrase it like Gus is some mad genius and Saban is a dumb ape who can't adjust. There is nothing new or hard to figure out about this variation, you just have to have the type of players who can counter it.

I still say our reason for losing to Auburn and Oklahoma were on the offensive side of the ball. We couldn't buy a first down in the second half of either game. If you convert 3rd downs we win, period, as in ALWAYS.

I agree about the offense. You beat the HUNH teams the old-fashioned way with smash-mouth power football. Eat up the clock with ball control; they can't use the HUNH if they are sitting on the bench watching your offense grind up their defensive line.

Ole Man Dan · Aug 11, 2014

BamaMoon said:
In almost everyone of those losses you can trace it back to three things:

1. They had a "hot" qb that game.
2. We missed some key field goals and/or lost fumbles that the other team turned into points.
3. We lost focus after having a big first half lead.

My vote would be... We lost focus, or we didn't really want to play what we considered a consolation game...

We have to go back to 4 quarters of hitting em in the mouth. No taking foot off the gas...
Do that and we win.

JamieSPC · Aug 11, 2014

Bamabuzzard said:
This is about as sure of a thing as the sun coming up. We can sit here and talk about the HUNH hasn't been our "problem" in the games we just so happened to lose against teams that ran them. Personally, I agree with Saban and others in that it really isn't the HUNH in and of itself giving us the problems. But it is a perceived problem and other teams are going to pick at it like a festering sore until we consistently shut it down.

PRECISELY. 8 of those 9 losses were to very good to great teams, sure. And 6 of those 8 run some form of HUNH. It is what it is. Saban admits our defensive coaching style isn't as compatible with HUNH (http://www.al.com/alabamafootball/index.ssf/2014/08/watch_live_stream_as_nick_saba.html). Our chief rival uses it very effectively and has ridden it to two BCSNC games—with, admittedly, a once-in-a-generation player in 2010 and a once-in-a-generation play in 2013, but you can't ignore their offensive numbers.

We have to see changes. I trust we will.

Eight of Alabama's Nine Losses Have a Common Theme Based on Opponents

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