Automation is coming, no avoiding it, how will we cope?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU#t=72
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU#t=72
Humans need not apply
- Thread starter crimsonaudio
- Start date
i've seen that video trending on Reddit for days and never watched. I can see why it was trending with that young crowd
it is very worrisome, and very true. I've been selling IT for decades and my work now has me involved in Big Data, Analytics and the Cloud. All 3 are directly taking jobs.
The Cloud is a reason that Cisco, Microsoft, HP, IBM and others have announced layoffs over the last few years. The ability to easily and more important cheaply gain compute and storage resources with a swype of a credit card means less need for individual companies to buy gear. You can see this in the numbers of all of the server manufacturers with one exception, Cisco as a late entrant which is growing their Data Center business. It's not just the death of the PC that is hurting these guys.
Software based Analytics are coming after the jobs of business analysts, marketing teams, advertizing teams etc. An in memory database running custom analytics code can in seconds tell you what people are buying where and give you the kind of insights into marketing and advertizing that used take teams of dozens months to figure out. Know anyone that is a business analyst? I'd recommend that they brush up on their skills
Big Data is rapidly coming on and combined with things like the Analytics tools above will effect customer service jobs, support jobs, customer retention specialists etc.
We need to start thinking strongly about how we deal. 30-40% unemployment is not at all out of the question in the next few decades
it is very worrisome, and very true. I've been selling IT for decades and my work now has me involved in Big Data, Analytics and the Cloud. All 3 are directly taking jobs.
The Cloud is a reason that Cisco, Microsoft, HP, IBM and others have announced layoffs over the last few years. The ability to easily and more important cheaply gain compute and storage resources with a swype of a credit card means less need for individual companies to buy gear. You can see this in the numbers of all of the server manufacturers with one exception, Cisco as a late entrant which is growing their Data Center business. It's not just the death of the PC that is hurting these guys.
Software based Analytics are coming after the jobs of business analysts, marketing teams, advertizing teams etc. An in memory database running custom analytics code can in seconds tell you what people are buying where and give you the kind of insights into marketing and advertizing that used take teams of dozens months to figure out. Know anyone that is a business analyst? I'd recommend that they brush up on their skills
Big Data is rapidly coming on and combined with things like the Analytics tools above will effect customer service jobs, support jobs, customer retention specialists etc.
We need to start thinking strongly about how we deal. 30-40% unemployment is not at all out of the question in the next few decades
Yah, for now, trades are the ticket for future-proof work - it'll be a long time before a robot can come ou to your house and repair your AC unit, fix your plumbing, or repair your auto. I can see white color jobs being absolutely pummeled before the trades as the costs of employment as well as the ease of transferring the data load to the machines is far easier.
Creative-based jobs (such as mine) will also be difficult to replace as so much of the work is subjective, not objective, but even my gig will eventually be replaced my machines, though I suspect that will likely be long after I've retired.
Creative-based jobs (such as mine) will also be difficult to replace as so much of the work is subjective, not objective, but even my gig will eventually be replaced my machines, though I suspect that will likely be long after I've retired.
disagree on 2/3 of your trade examples
Cars especially. Years ago you would take your car to a trusted mechanic who would drive it, listen to and maybe hook a rudimentary diagnostic machine or two up to see if they could figure out the issue. Through trial and error and a bit of time they would diagnose and attempt repair. All that work has been replaced now with an on board computer that when hooked to a hand held scanner tells the tech much of what needs to be done. The cars themselves have also become so modular that rarely do mechanics spend time replacing or rebuilding components. My wifes Benz had a transmission slipping. Ten years ago that would have been handled by cracking open the tranny and replacing the gears that were damaged, today they simply replace the tranny entirely and send the old one to the third world to be rebuilt for the next guy to complain about a slipping tranny. This doesn't even begin to address the need to actually own a car. When driverless cars become the norm why own when you can use an app like Uber and have a car any time you need it, anywhere you need it in minutes for a miniscule fraction of the cost?
On AC units you'll see the same thing soon. Company will simply replace the whole thing with another leased unit rather than try to service it onsite.
Plumbers should be somewhat safe, for now
That's the thing though, repairs are no longer the norm. Replacement is cheaper and easier. I've had friends get new or rebuilt engines to fix oil leaks. The engine is then shipped back to germany to be rebuilt there, how does that help anyone in this country with a job?
I certainly am not training my kids to do this kind of work
I think you're still missing my point - until robots exist that can replace the entire engine, or the entire AC unit, skilled workers will be needed. Your average person can't swap out a modern engine, clear all the codes, etc., and it will be long time before robots are cheap and plentiful enough to do that work.
When they start replacing twenty million dollar helicopters instead of repairing them, I'll be out of a job.
I agree.
Either learn to create, or maintain the bot or learn something it can't replicate cost effectively. Nothing is future proof, and keeping ahead of the curve is only going to get tougher.
There is always the option to move to areas of the world that are behind the trend if one wants to continue doing what they know.
that is true today, but it won't be long. I talked to the tech at my MB dealer (he is a buddy), the person who replaced the tranny in my wifes car was a barely above minimum wage 20 something kid, not a certified MB Master Tech. Put it on the lift, pull out a few bolts and mounting brackets, unplug the wires to OB2 computer, drop the old tranny slide the new one in replace the bolts and brackets and wires and tell the computer you are done. You and I with no real automotive skills could be replacing transmissions in a modern car with an afternoon of training. That is reality today. Think the Baxster unit in the video you posted could that? I do. It's simply cheaper to have a minimum wage kid do it today as they don't do enough of them to be cost effective to automate.
I nominate audio for the best "that's what she said," opportunity to present itself in weeks, maybe months.
We must remember the Three Laws:
1. A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
2. A robot must obey the orders given to it by human beings, except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
3. A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.
1. A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
2. A robot must obey the orders given to it by human beings, except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
3. A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.
I've been aware of this for many years. I've come to the conclusion that robots can be taught to do almost anything - except fix itself when it breaks. That's where I come in. I doubt my job will be automated anytime soon. :biggrin2:
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