Perhaps.
A few points.
First, the "43%-more-in-Federal-spending-than-paid-in-taxes" goes, in large measure, for the US military installations like Fort Hood, Fort Sam Houston, Fort Bliss, Lackland AFB, Corpus Christi NAS etc. Activities that would have to be moved to the United States in the event of Texas leaving the Union. But then again, Texas would not need to maintain those activities for the entire United States either.
Second, Federal social safety net money comes with mandatory social safety net expenses. An independent Texas would no longer face Federally-mandated social safety net spending requirements. I'd wager that in an independent Texas you'd see a significant drop in Texas organic social safety net spending (followed by a significant emigration of recipients of social safety net recipients).
Third, with Solyndra, Fast & Furious, Benghazi, weaponizing the IRS against political opponents, executive amendment of law, refusing to interdict illegal immigration (and forbidding states and localities from enforcing the law), and now, asserting the executive power to bomb a country without Congressional authorization, the current lot in Washington has already given potential Texas leaders a run for their money in enacting harmful policies.
When British officials told Gandhi that Indian muslims and Hindus would have serious problems running their own country, Gandhi responded, (appropriately enough, I believe), "Perhaps. But they will be our problems, not yours." Texans could probably make the same argument.
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