ADMIN NOTE: New Ebola thread reset...

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TIDE-HSV

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This is an attempt to have a thread addressing what is a serious problem abroad, which could turn out to be a serious problem for our country in the future. I'd like a serious discussion. That doesn't mean that there can't be humor, even gallows humor. However, I don't want to see comments which are barely (or not even barely) racist or which advocate mass murder, whether it's a failed attempt at humor or not. I do know that some content on this board has been used in the past against us in recruiting in the vein of "See what they're really like?" Posters might keep that tucked away in a few brain cells in the back of the brain before posting. This will be the only thread on the Ebola menace...
 

TIDE-HSV

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Well, I guess I'll take a stab at it first. I'm not sure what can be done against this outbreak that coming on as quickly as it is coming. It seems as though just going there to help is certain death. That's scary.
Well, in the military, if they tell you to go, you go. What worries me is that we have medical professionals, taking every known preventative measure, still coming down with it. It tells me that there are modes of infection which are poorly understood at this time...
 
Well, in the military, if they tell you to go, you go. What worries me is that we have medical professionals, taking every known preventative measure, still coming down with it. It tells me that there are modes of infection which are poorly understood at this time...
You are correct about the military, which is unfortunate unless they have a quarantine zone. But how do you even establish that when it's coming in at all angles.

It seems like if you just open your eyes you get it. The one guy that was "cured" seemed like the step in the right direction, but that same "cure" from what I heard has had 0 effect on everyone else.
 

TIDE-HSV

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You are correct about the military, which is unfortunate unless they have a quarantine zone. But how do you even establish that when it's coming in at all angles.

It seems like if you just open your eyes you get it. The one guy that was "cured" seemed like the step in the right direction, but that same "cure" from what I heard has had 0 effect on everyone else.
Well, as I said way back at the beginning of the other thread, the virus is "learning." It used to kill 90%. I think it's down to around half. That's a two-edged sword. Yes, you have a residual resistant population (at least to that strain). OTOH, it broadens the horizon for the virus to spread, because it no longer self-limits, as it did in the past...
 

NationalTitles18

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The actual death rate is 70.8% in confirmed cases, per the WHO. Going by current deaths/current cases is not an accurate measure with the current rate transmission. The death rate lags due to the high rate of transmission. Over time that will change and the true number will become more evident as the epidemic comes under control.

What has made Ebola so intriguing all these years is just this possibility - widespread infection with massive deaths. It's very sad this is happening and a bit frightening as well. Even with all the money and manpower going toward this effort, I'm not sure it's enough, and something like 3-4x or more of the present investment may be needed in a short time.
 
Well, as I said way back at the beginning of the other thread, the virus is "learning." It used to kill 90%. I think it's down to around half. That's a two-edged sword. Yes, you have a residual resistant population (at least to that strain). OTOH, it broadens the horizon for the virus to spread, because it no longer self-limits, as it did in the past...

I'm not sure I have heard of a virus learning this fast. It's almost like we are its test subjects to see how fast it can kill. Then it goes back to the drawing board. That's what I'm afraid of. I was shocked when they brought the guy to ATL to treat him. One mishap, then it is over the the States.

Another thing, I don't think the general public understands the risk. They think it is just an African thing and somehow we'll fix it. I just can't look at it like that. This has the potential to worse than any terror cell in history.
 

bamachile

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Here's an eyebrow raiser -

Healthy Briton to be injected in Ebola vaccine trial

A healthy British volunteer became the first person to receive a new vaccine for the Ebola virus in a trial at the University of Oxford on Wednesday
....
The volunteer is one of 60 who will receive the drug at the University of Oxford in testing that will run alongside similar trials in the United States and could mean a vaccine being produced by the end of the year.
Live testing this quickly certainly reflects a sense of urgency. I hope all goes well.
 

DocCrimson

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Previously I never worried too much about Ebola. It's like a fire that burns too hot to sustain itself. Now, with what may be longer incubation periods and a lack of appropriate infrastructure, a lot could happen. I have a hard time imagining that this outbreak never goes away, but it might be around for a lot longer than we anticipated. In the USA, it still should remain relatively well contained unless there are a number of new mutations. A death rate of 50% is still not sustainable for a virus in the USA or Western Europe. But if it continues to linger for another 1-2 years, it might change into something closer to measles (mortality wise) with a number of years until we can develop an appropriate vaccine.
 

TIDE-HSV

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Previously I never worried too much about Ebola. It's like a fire that burns too hot to sustain itself. Now, with what may be longer incubation periods and a lack of appropriate infrastructure, a lot could happen. I have a hard time imagining that this outbreak never goes away, but it might be around for a lot longer than we anticipated. In the USA, it still should remain relatively well contained unless there are a number of new mutations. A death rate of 50% is still not sustainable for a virus in the USA or Western Europe. But if it continues to linger for another 1-2 years, it might change into something closer to measles (mortality wise) with a number of years until we can develop an appropriate vaccine.
The CDC just came out with an estimate of 1.4 million, but that it would eventually burn out. The original document is so hard to read, I've linked the NYT abstract below...

LINK. Also, here is the CDC link: LINK
 

TIDE-HSV

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I'm not sure I have heard of a virus learning this fast. It's almost like we are its test subjects to see how fast it can kill. Then it goes back to the drawing board. That's what I'm afraid of. I was shocked when they brought the guy to ATL to treat him. One mishap, then it is over the the States.

Another thing, I don't think the general public understands the risk. They think it is just an African thing and somehow we'll fix it. I just can't look at it like that. This has the potential to worse than any terror cell in history.
True, but 15 above may have a point. The rapid spread may be meaning that a lot of morbidity out there will turn into mortality. Also, I'd think there'd be a strong propensity to under-report, particularly since they're also under-reporting morbidity currently...
 

CajunCrimson

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Good news: 2 less people are dead from the ebolas virus;

bad news: every zombie movie you have ever watched.

Liberia: Dead Ebola Patients Resurrect?


Note: I have no idea of the reliability of the sight but thought it was interesting one way or the other.
I saw that too. Drudge linked to it. I'd invite Darrel Dixon over to your house if this is true.

Apparently it's freaking out the locals though.
 

bamachile

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We touched on this earlier, but here's another news release confirming some of the difficulties faced by volunteers.

Red Cross team attacked while burying Ebola dead

A Red Cross team was attacked while collecting bodies believed to be infected with Ebola in southeastern Guinea, the latest in a string of assaults that are hindering efforts to control West Africa's current outbreak....Family members of the dead initially set upon the six volunteers and vandalized their cars, said Mariam Barry, a resident. Eventually a crowd went to the regional health office, where they threw rocks at the building....The attack is the most recent in a series that have plagued teams working to bury bodies safely, provide information about Ebola and disinfect public places....Resistance to efforts to control the disease — from outright denials that Ebola exists to fears that the very people sent to combat it are in fact carriers — has frustrated efforts to end or slow the disease's spread in all three of the most affected countries, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, say officials.
The years of distrust and alienation are greatly complicating things in some of these areas.

ETA - If anyone is curious as to why Western African nations are distrustful, research the civil wars in Liberia and Sierra Leone. US support/non-support of William Tolbert, Samuel Doe, and Charles Taylor figured greatly in their retention and loss of power. European interference has not been forgotten, either. The distrust is, unfortunately, not without reason.
 
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Displaced Bama Fan

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It's being reported on some alternative news websites that they are setting up Ebola "death" camps for those infected to isolate them from the others. Chilling.

I'm wondering if that's why we're sending 3,000 troops there to help enforce a quarantine.
 

92tide

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We touched on this earlier, but here's another news release confirming some of the difficulties faced by volunteers.

Red Cross team attacked while burying Ebola dead



The years of distrust and alienation are greatly complicating things in some of these areas.

ETA - If anyone is curious as to why Western African nations are distrustful, research the civil wars in Liberia and Sierra Leone. US support/non-support of William Tolbert, Samuel Doe, and Charles Taylor figured greatly in their retention and loss of power. European interference has not been forgotten, either. The distrust is, unfortunately, not without reason.
at our previous church, we had two large families who had escaped the brutality of the taylor regime. it sounded horrific
 
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