I think your analysis is good. If Bo Wallace plays like he has all year, Ole Miss isn't in this game. If he plays well the game is close; if he plays way over his head, Ole Miss might win. . Their D is good and at home it will be even better.
Unless the scoring comes off of turnovers I don't either. Ole Miss is usually just Ole Miss, and if we get "Bad Bo Wallace," that could be the case this time around too. They're defense is really good though. They've got 1 or 2 future NFL players at every position group on the defensive side of the ball, some of whom get be stars at the next level. Honestly, I think the first team to 30 wins.