I'm upset with the loss, and I'm upset with the injuries. It wouldn't have been an enjoyable game for me either way, but Alabama lost and that's that. However, several undefeated teams lost, several ranked teams lost, and that's important here.
I don't trust the committee. The BCS formula would have been so much better. But, they set up the rules and it will be hard for them to break them blatantly. Alabama didn't fall far in the polls due to all the chaos and their loss was a good as loss as a contender can hope to have. The committee will likely try to hold not being conference champions against Alabama if nothing changes, but perhaps two stupid things can cancel themselves out, since they also are supposed to take injuries into account as well.
It appears as though Alabama is likely to end up in any top 4 if they win out. A quick look at Sagarin relaxed my anxiety a bit. Here's how that looks:
1 Auburn A = 96.61 5 0 75.40( 9) 0 0 | 3 0 | 96.75 1 | 95.65 1 | 95.98 1
2 Oklahoma A = 93.27 4 1 75.59( 8) 0 1 | 2 1 | 95.22 2 | 92.20 2 | 91.98 4
3 Mississippi A = 92.45 5 0 70.19( 28) 1 0 | 1 0 | 90.63 7 | 91.90 3 | 92.82 3
4 Alabama A = 91.79 4 1 72.48( 18) 0 1 | 2 1 | 93.60 4 | 90.29 4 | 93.27 2
5 Baylor A = 91.40 5 0 62.74( 104) 0 0 | 0 0 | 94.08 3 | 90.18 5 | 90.55 7
6 Texas A&M A = 89.99 5 1 69.76( 34) 0 1 | 1 1 | 88.59 8 | 89.81 6 | 88.47 10
7 TCU A = 89.01 4 0 65.64( 76) 1 0 | 1 0 | 91.40 5 | 87.36 9 | 91.12 6
8 Mississippi State A = 88.72 5 0 68.83( 42) 1 0 | 2 0 | 91.21 6 | 87.15 11 | 90.24 8
Now, if we had the old BCS standings, Alabama would already be on the verge of getting in at this point. They're still in, in some computers and #7 in both polls. Winning out would insure that. Instead, I can only surmise that committee will act in a sane manner. The key here is that no team outside of the SEC West has beaten an SEC West team. While this probably won't hold up, to a certain extent the SEC West has locked in a very high SoS for the rest of the year, and that will keep climbing as they play each other. For instance, a couple of weeks ago Alabama had an SoS in the 70s, now it's 18.
A look over that list though, shows what Alabama has to do in order to get in. They already used their mulligan, it's practically certain they have to win out now. But, if they do, that means beating #1, #6, and #8 (or if you go by the AP, #2, #3, and #14). On the field they can clear a path that puts them at least #4 in the polls (Florida State and Notre Dame play each other), and that would certainly put them in the top 4 of the computers.
Now, of course the committee could still look at a top ten SoS, a top 4 ranking, top 4 in the computers, and still keep them out. But, they couldn't do that and retain an ounce of respect. At this point I think Alabama controls their destiny, and while I think it's extremely unlikely that they do win out, given the issues they have, only a travesty from the committee can keep them out if they do.
Edit: If I look at the teams according to rank, and just assume the top ranked teams win out (and Alabama does as well) it comes out like this:
#1 FSU
#2 Ole Miss
#3 Baylor
#4 Alabama
The only major conference team left, that I'm aware of, that could be undefeated in that scenario is Arizona and they're a heck of a long shot to run the table (they only beat UTSA by a single score and all but 4 of their wins are by a single score).
I don't trust the committee. The BCS formula would have been so much better. But, they set up the rules and it will be hard for them to break them blatantly. Alabama didn't fall far in the polls due to all the chaos and their loss was a good as loss as a contender can hope to have. The committee will likely try to hold not being conference champions against Alabama if nothing changes, but perhaps two stupid things can cancel themselves out, since they also are supposed to take injuries into account as well.
It appears as though Alabama is likely to end up in any top 4 if they win out. A quick look at Sagarin relaxed my anxiety a bit. Here's how that looks:
1 Auburn A = 96.61 5 0 75.40( 9) 0 0 | 3 0 | 96.75 1 | 95.65 1 | 95.98 1
2 Oklahoma A = 93.27 4 1 75.59( 8) 0 1 | 2 1 | 95.22 2 | 92.20 2 | 91.98 4
3 Mississippi A = 92.45 5 0 70.19( 28) 1 0 | 1 0 | 90.63 7 | 91.90 3 | 92.82 3
4 Alabama A = 91.79 4 1 72.48( 18) 0 1 | 2 1 | 93.60 4 | 90.29 4 | 93.27 2
5 Baylor A = 91.40 5 0 62.74( 104) 0 0 | 0 0 | 94.08 3 | 90.18 5 | 90.55 7
6 Texas A&M A = 89.99 5 1 69.76( 34) 0 1 | 1 1 | 88.59 8 | 89.81 6 | 88.47 10
7 TCU A = 89.01 4 0 65.64( 76) 1 0 | 1 0 | 91.40 5 | 87.36 9 | 91.12 6
8 Mississippi State A = 88.72 5 0 68.83( 42) 1 0 | 2 0 | 91.21 6 | 87.15 11 | 90.24 8
Now, if we had the old BCS standings, Alabama would already be on the verge of getting in at this point. They're still in, in some computers and #7 in both polls. Winning out would insure that. Instead, I can only surmise that committee will act in a sane manner. The key here is that no team outside of the SEC West has beaten an SEC West team. While this probably won't hold up, to a certain extent the SEC West has locked in a very high SoS for the rest of the year, and that will keep climbing as they play each other. For instance, a couple of weeks ago Alabama had an SoS in the 70s, now it's 18.
A look over that list though, shows what Alabama has to do in order to get in. They already used their mulligan, it's practically certain they have to win out now. But, if they do, that means beating #1, #6, and #8 (or if you go by the AP, #2, #3, and #14). On the field they can clear a path that puts them at least #4 in the polls (Florida State and Notre Dame play each other), and that would certainly put them in the top 4 of the computers.
Now, of course the committee could still look at a top ten SoS, a top 4 ranking, top 4 in the computers, and still keep them out. But, they couldn't do that and retain an ounce of respect. At this point I think Alabama controls their destiny, and while I think it's extremely unlikely that they do win out, given the issues they have, only a travesty from the committee can keep them out if they do.
Edit: If I look at the teams according to rank, and just assume the top ranked teams win out (and Alabama does as well) it comes out like this:
#1 FSU
#2 Ole Miss
#3 Baylor
#4 Alabama
The only major conference team left, that I'm aware of, that could be undefeated in that scenario is Arizona and they're a heck of a long shot to run the table (they only beat UTSA by a single score and all but 4 of their wins are by a single score).
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