I always try to participate in this thread and feel like it would be bad luck not to do so this week. But for the first time I can ever remember for a mid-season game, I have no clue, none, how this game will go.
We could play like we did against Florida (their D is better than A&M's) and score six touchdowns. Our front seven could be in Hill's face all day and force a bunch of throwaways and interception chances. They have lost two in a row and it easily could have been three. If they get behind, they may start to give up. Just being back at BDS may be just the medicine the team needs. Maybe hurting players return to form this week and stupid turnovers and penalties stop.
On the other hand, we match up poorly with them on defense (how many times did Arky have that route across the middle wide open and not hit it? 4-5 maybe? the time they did was for a TD). They'd be happy to toss it every down and we defend the run better than anything. Their defense is supposedly not very good, but they beat Arkansas, including stoning them cold in OT when supposedly the big o-line should have worn them down. They put 400 yards on Mississippi, whose defense (especially DB) is playing better than ours the last two weeks. We may continue to lay the ball on the ground on special teams, not know what to do with it when Cooper isn't open, and the o-line was still shifting bodies around in practice today. Will we have another embarrassing 2.1 ypc average with running backs in the stable like Yeldon and Henry?
Truly, I have no feel for this game and find (nearly) every prediction on the board fairly reasonable or at least I can imagine a set of circumstances to make it happen. So, I am taking the consensus betting line today (Alabama -11.5 O/U 60), converting it to something close that looks like a real football score, and saying:
Alabama 35
Texas A&M 24
We don't cover (by .5) and have the Under (by 1). 36-24 gets me right on it, but 36 is a hard score to get.