Sagarin Poll??

DallasRTR

3rd Team
Jul 26, 2007
260
8
37
Who the heck is this Sagarin guy? I know he is some super smart MIT type guy, but do his formulas even make any sense at all?

We are ranked 6th - ok, fine, I think a bit high, but ok, I can live with that.

MSU - ranked 3rd after destroying 3 top 10 teams in 3 weeks -
Auburn - ranked 1, even though they just got destroyed by MSU.

A&M is ranked 9th, after 2 losses - not even close losses to Ole Miss and MSU.

Ok, I'll be quiet now.
 

DallasRTR

3rd Team
Jul 26, 2007
260
8
37
Re: Sagarin Pole??

Oh, and I just checked - the Dallas Cowboys are ranked 15th - with a 5 win 1 loss team.
KC Chiefs with a 2-3 record and NO Saints with a 2-3 record are both ranked above them -

NO - 30th most difficult schedule
Cowboys - 9th most difficult schedule
 

Jon

Hall of Fame
Feb 22, 2002
15,635
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Atlanta 'Burbs
Re: Sagarin Pole??

deleted as a mod change to the title makes this no longer makes sense
 
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Tidewater

Hall of Fame
Mar 15, 2003
22,401
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Hooterville, Vir.
Re: Sagarin Pole??

Who the heck is this Sagarin guy? I know he is some super smart MIT type guy, but do his formulas even make any sense at all?

We are ranked 6th - ok, fine, I think a bit high, but ok, I can live with that.

MSU - ranked 3rd after destroying 3 top 10 teams in 3 weeks -
Auburn - ranked 1, even though they just got destroyed by MSU.

A&M is ranked 9th, after 2 losses - not even close losses to Ole Miss and MSU.

Ok, I'll be quiet now.
The Sagarin poll (vice the Sagarin pole) is simply a mathematical acknowledgement that defeating a 0-10 team is probably less impressive than defeating a 10-0 team.
Plus, he takes it one step further. If the 0-10 team played the ten best teams in the country, and the 10-0 team played the ten weakest teams in the country, then being 10-0 or 0-10 is not that impressive. Obviously, this requires some math skills and some data to put into the formulae.
 

TexasBama

TideFans Legend
Jan 15, 2000
25,824
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Houston, Texas USA
Re: Sagarin Pole??

Supposedly, his poll is designed to include all sorts of variables and isn't really accurate towards the end of the season. It is more about getting to the right result at the end than having a continuous ranking of the current state of things. So it always has that sort of craziness.
For this reason, his early season NCAA Basketball rankings are always a hoot.
 

dWarriors88

All-American
Jan 4, 2009
4,236
879
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Tulsa, OK
Check out his conference divisional rankings. SEC West head and shoulders beyond any one else by a large margin.

 
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dWarriors88

All-American
Jan 4, 2009
4,236
879
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Tulsa, OK
Ya, this particular poll doesn't represent an accurate picture until at least week 8. Strength of Schedule is a huge variable included in his formula. Who your opponent plays and beats affects your ranking as much as who you play and beat -as well as by how much-
 

GreatDanish

Hall of Fame
Nov 22, 2005
6,079
0
0
TN
Three things about Sagarin's Ratings...
1. They are not polls. They are rankings of ratings.
2. He even acknowledges that they are not good until about week 7 of the year (when they are "well-connected").
3. There are several different Sagarin ratings.

"Golden Mean" - uses margins of victory but is not intended to predict head-to-head matchups.
1. Auburn
2. Oklahoma
3. Mississippi State
4. Alabama
5. Baylor

"Predictor" - Is used to predict outcomes of games and also uses margin of victory.
1. Auburn
2. Ole Miss
3. Georgia
4. Oklahoma
5. Baylor

This indicates that Auburn would be favored against anyone in the country. Their high ranking is probably largely due to their thrashing of LSU. This early in the season, one dominant performance like that weighs very heavily but this will balance out by the end of the season.

"Elo Chess" - The only thing that matters is W/L record. This is a chess formula that was used in the BCS since they required computer formulas to ignore margin of victory.
1. Ole Miss
2. Mississippi State
3. Auburn
4. Alabama
5. Baylor

The fact that the SEC West hasn't lost a game outside of the division explains why the top 4 teams in Elo Chess are SEC West teams.
 

KrAzY3

Hall of Fame
Jan 18, 2006
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It's a computer poll, it's not like he's sitting there just picking what he sees as the top teams. I've mentioned it before, but SoS can get skewed once some OOC things get locked in, well as has been mentioned, so far it's skewing towards the SEC West. The SoS is going through the roof, and as such, a loss doesn't mean much inside the SEC West.

There's a cold logic to it though, why should A&M be ranked lower? They lost to two of the best teams in the country, that doesn't make them a bad team does it?
 
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Bama Reb

Suspended
Nov 2, 2005
14,446
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On the lake and in the woods, AL
Re: Sagarin Pole??

Oh, and I just checked - the Dallas Cowboys are ranked 15th - with a 5 win 1 loss team.
KC Chiefs with a 2-3 record and NO Saints with a 2-3 record are both ranked above them -

NO - 30th most difficult schedule
Cowboys - 9th most difficult schedule
You know there are 3 primary football conferences. The AFC, the NFC and the SEC.
 

Redwood Forrest

Hall of Fame
Sep 19, 2003
11,042
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I have used the Sagarin ranking on a spreadsheet for four years in my pick 'ems. It is the most accurate of the computer rankings. Last week it beat the "line" on picking 27 college games and actually beat the other stats I use. It is not perfect by any means, and it does get more accurate as the seanson progresses, as is the case with most stat based systems.
 

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