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JessN: Texas A&M preview: Vegas may have this one wrong

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JessN

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Texas A&M preview: Vegas may have this one wrong
by Jess Nicholas
TideFans Editor-In-Chief
October 15th, 2014 11:38 PM

TideFans.com doesn't often make reference to betting lines, as that’s not our thing. But when Alabama opened up as roughly a two-touchdown favorite over Texas A&M, it got everyone’s attention in the sports media world. Alabama, a team that had just scraped to a 14-13 victory […]

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PacadermaTideUs

PacadermaTideUs

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Everybody always gives Vegas credit for accurately predicting games. But Vegas doesn't predict games. They predict how the betting public will bet. Then they adjust based on how the bets come in. In that sense, it's the betting public (as a whole) that deserves credit for accurately predicting games. And in that sense, Vegas has already got it right.

Most books opened on this game on the 12th at Bama -12, give or take a half point. Early on the line quickly moved up to -13 and even as high as -14.5 in some books. That indicates that more early money was coming in on Bama. It then quickly dropped to -11 to -11.5 by the 14th, with a few books dropping as low as -10, indicating later money came in on A&M. The line hasn't moved in a couple of days now, indicating that currently, roughly even money is split between Bama and A&M at around Bama -11.5 (ish). See: Vegas got it right, as they almost always do.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college...exas-am-@-alabama.cfm/date/10-18-14/time/1530

Now, whether or not the betting public got it right or not won't be determined until Saturday. Personally, I agree with your analysis to the point that I think Bama's being given too much credit in this matchup, and A&M is likely being given too little. But I still think Bama wins. This game's hard to predict though - neither team is playing particularly consistently. It's hard to tell which two teams are going to show up.
 
twofbyc

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I would only differ with Jess to say, two, not three, of the best defensive lines in the SEC. I would put neither SC nor Arkansas in that category. Both are better then Vandy, but I don't think will be in the top 4 at the end - or the top five. Bama has played one of those two and, in comparison, did very well (statistically).
JMO but I think Bama's front seven is the deciding factor in this game - mainly the line, since they will probably be 5 db's playing the whole game. If A&M wins it won't be close. IMO.
 
GrayTide

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IMO this score is a little high for us at 24 in that it assumes we kick a FG which is not likely to happen. Our secondary I am afraid is going to get schooled and we simply cannot win in a track meet type game.
 
BamaGreek

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Well I just hope Jess has this wrong and Bama plays a great game at home and gets the win. I know ATM has been the one team that has given Saban's defense the most trouble but maybe our defense will be better prepared for what they do this time. I also think our offense might break out of their funk this week and put a bunch of points on the board. Guess we will see.
 
CajunCrimson

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Johnny Football is in Cleveland. Without him the last two games ain't close...

I get the breakdowns and all. We saw the fire at the end of the Arkansas game. At some point that fire begins to rage. I think we see more concentration, less mistakes, and we control the ball for 40+ minutes. If we get pressure from the front 4, it's not even close
 
BamaJackPA

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I agree about the fire turning to rage on the defensive side... I watched the Ole Miss game last night and feel like that Bama offensive team (396 yards)-- minus the turnovers, critical penalties and drops, is going to show up and make a statement this Saturday. Obvious that the D is progressing. Time for the O to feel the fire.
 
theballguy

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Stout-hearted Alabama men (the fans). Yeah right. Sound like wimps to me. Always afraid the Tide will embarrass *them.* Personally, I don't see how we *don't* win this game. If we lose, the sun still comes up and Bama is still #1 in my book.
 
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bamakeeb

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The Aggies will get their yards but they don't have Manziel/Evans, who combined for about 300 yards last year. I'm willing to throw last week's rushing performance out the window due to the rain. I first thought it was a indication of miscommunication due to Kelly's absence. But, Saban says they were on the right guys but just didn't finish blocks. That tells me that sloppy play probably was caused by poor footing and leverage. This hasn't been an issue the past couple of years, but let's face it, we're not as good on OL as we have been. Still, with fewer external factors I expect us to have a more normal rushing day. This will take a lot of pressure off of Sims, which should allow him to play more like we've seen earlier in the year.

Bama 38
Aggies 24
 
selmaborntidefan

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I can't really disagree with JessN's analysis at all. Every point is spot on. My HOPE at this point is this: we have not played anywhere close (imho) to our "best" game this year. I think the Aggies have. Consequently, that one intangible favors us IF we show up and do it. Then again, our common opponents are Ole Miss (we lost by 6 on the road, the Aggies lost by 15 at home) and Arkansas (took them overtime at a presumed "neutral" site and we ducked OT by a blocked PAT). Common opponents slightly favors us as well. But my fear of the slice and dice of the secondary is a bigger issue. We can't fall 20-0 behind like we did in 2012 and climb off the mat to win (or as in that case, come within six feet of winning).

And so if I were him I'd have made the same prediction based upon straight-up analysis. I'm with CA, though - I have a bad feeling about this game. Then again.....Saban's history with the exception of late 2007 (and not only was that NOT his team but we can thank the infamous Textbook Scandal for costing us key players down the stretch) is that he rarely has two bad games in a row.

Then again - that's intangible, not analysis of matchups.

I hope we win but this game has me a bit edgy.
 
Bamaro

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Another week where the QB advantage goes to the opponent. Is that 2 & 5 or 3 & 4, and if remember one week was pretty much a draw but went to us because of backups.
 
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