JessN: Texas A&M preview: Vegas may have this one wrong

crimsonaudio said:

I've not said much about this game, and I hope I'm wrong, but I've got a bad feeling about this one.

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If you had asked me before the season, "which game scares you the most"?, it would have been this one.
They can light us up in the secondary if we don't rush the passer.
However, they haven't even slowed down a good running game this season and that's where we should have a huge advantage. Plus, their secondary isn't playing very well either.
I wish they weren't rolling in off two consecutive losses, but they are, and that will give them some motivation.
At the end though, i think we'll take them.

UA90 said:

Pretty sure JessN has this one wrong. I respect your opinion, but if I were going to predict a home loss to stir up the natives, and show how impartial I am, I think I would have gone with Miss State or Auburn.

This A&M game won't be that close.

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I've been reading JessN's predictions for years, just as you probably, but I don't think he's trying to stir up the natives. He's not a sunshine pumper so when he's predicting a loss he's concerned.

Problem is, we would probably shutter to hear what he thinks a matchup with MSU or even Auburn RIGHT NOW might be.

But hopefully we get our ducks in a row in this game and hopefully we show steady improvement as we get ready for our next few games!

with all due respect, the prediction department has been less than stellar this season so far. I will take the Tide at home.

Say it ain't so, Joe; err, Jess

BamaMoon said:

I've been reading JessN's predictions for years, just as you probably, but I don't think he's trying to stir up the natives. He's not a sunshine pumper so when he's predicting a loss he's concerned.

Problem is, we would probably shutter to hear what he thinks a matchup with MSU or even Auburn RIGHT NOW might be.

But hopefully we get our ducks in a row in this game and hopefully we show steady improvement as we get ready for our next few games!

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Very true. This doesn't have to be as good as it gets.

his breakdown is spot on. I picked us close at home is the only difference, but the breakdown kinda is what i expected to be. I just wonder how many people picking us to shoot the moon change their picks on the prediction boards.

I respect Jess's analysis on a weekly basis. And he may be correct here. But I keep remembering that A & M was behind at Miss. St 48-17 and 35-7 at HOME to Ole Miss before late meaningless scores. Does any one think that the Tide would ever be behind by those scores against either of those teams? Bama wins if they are able to run the ball- Jess's prediction will come true if they cannot.

ptw1961 said:

I respect Jess's analysis on a weekly basis. And he may be correct here. But I keep remembering that A & M was behind at Miss. St 48-17 and 35-7 at HOME to Ole Miss before late meaningless scores. Does any one think that the Tide would ever be behind by those scores against either of those teams? Bama wins if they are able to run the ball- Jess's prediction will come true if they cannot.

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If Bama can't run the ball against the aggies, they might lose 4 more games after this one.

twofbyc said:

If Bama can't run the ball against the aggies, they might lose 4 more games after this one.

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Call Sims' number to run early and force A&M to keep an eye on him freeing up Yeldon etc to have much better success than last week. I cant understand why we dont exploit his ability.

Here is what I love about being an Alabama fan in 2014 vs. 2004. I feel like we can win any game we play now. Do I feel good about the game on Saturday, no. At least I feel that we have a chance if we will just play smart, disciplined football. I hope Jess is wrong, but from what I have seen lately, I just don't know. If anybody can get things straightened out though, it is Coach Saban.

Bamaro said:

Call Sims' number to run early and force A&M to keep an eye on him freeing up Yeldon etc to have much better success than last week. I cant understand why we dont exploit his ability.

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Especially after the way Bo Wallace killed them on the zone read.


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I have no problem with Jess' preview. If feel we can win if we clean up the horrendous special teams play, re-establish the running game, and at least limit their offense. With that said, I'm in a "show me" mindset right now.

Jess has been reading too many of GrayTide's posts and the negativity is rubbing off.

I always think Alabama will win, even when there's no real reason to. The difference in Jess and me is that Jess is giving an honest assessment based on what he's seen on the field and both teams performance to date where I and probably a lot of us go by feelings or what we consider as Bama's potential upside. In this case based on past performance there's no real reason to expect anything significantly different from what we've seen so far, but I sure hope that's wrong. I appreciate him being totally straightforward, especially in a game like this one. Roll Tide

BadgerTidefan said:

I always think Alabama will win, even when there's no real reason to. The difference in Jess and me is that Jess is giving an honest assessment based on what he's seen on the field and both teams performance to date where I and probably a lot of us go by feelings or what we consider as Bama's potential upside. In this case based on past performance there's no real reason to expect anything significantly different from what we've seen so far, but I sure hope that's wrong. I appreciate him being totally straightforward, especially in a game like this one. Roll Tide

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I think that's probably true, at least in my case. I know that in my predictions, I generally factor in "what we are capable of" in addition to "what we have shown". In this context, I think "what we are capable of" is probably best depicted by a return to pre-Ole Miss form, while "what we have shown" is best depicted by the last two games.

I don't think I usually do that so much with our opponents, leaning more heavily on the "what they have shown" aspect. And I certainly haven't done that in my prediction for this weekend (31-21 Bama). If I'm only considering "what we have shown" for both teams, that margin narrows, but still not enough to result in an A&M win. Maybe a 28-24 ballgame.

Few points here.

The match ups are units vs units. Our OL isn't facing their OL. IMO we matchup well enough with them to absolutely be competitive in this game.

Reading some posts you'd think that losing two straight by 30 points and then going to on the road is a good thing! aTm is reeling right now.

If the roles were reversed and we were 4-2 and going into Kyle Field would we have some strange, intangible advantage? No, some of our fans would be predicting a blood bath and insinuating that CNS has lost it.

Finally, maybe it's just me and my goal to enjoy football again (the loss to OM bothered me for about 2 hours...the IB last year almost killed me) but it's exciting to see our team growing and being challenged. No game is a gimme this year and that makes it even more interesting.

Nolan said:

Few points here.

The match ups are units vs units. Our OL isn't facing their OL. IMO we matchup well enough with them to absolutely be competitive in this game.

Reading some posts you'd think that losing two straight by 30 points and then going to on the road is a good thing! aTm is reeling right now.

If the roles were reversed and we were 4-2 and going into Kyle Field would we have some strange, intangible advantage? No, some of our fans would be predicting a blood bath and insinuating that CNS has lost it.

Finally, maybe it's just me and my goal to enjoy football again (the loss to OM bothered me for about 2 hours...the IB last year almost killed me) but it's exciting to see our team growing and being challenged. No game is a gimme this year and that makes it even more interesting.

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Great post! We barely lost and barely won and we are not very confident in winning Saturday. I can only imagine what their fan base is thinking right now.

BadgerTidefan said:

I always think Alabama will win, even when there's no real reason to. The difference in Jess and me is that Jess is giving an honest assessment based on what he's seen on the field and both teams performance to date where I and probably a lot of us go by feelings or what we consider as Bama's potential upside. In this case based on past performance there's no real reason to expect anything significantly different from what we've seen so far, but I sure hope that's wrong. I appreciate him being totally straightforward, especially in a game like this one. Roll Tide

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We see things differently. I have seen two games (and watched almost all of them) where A&M receivers dropped a lot of passes (9-11 in one, depending on who you ask, and at least 3 or 4 in another). This is a chronic problem and as much as I love Julio, he still drops passes for the Falcons, just like he did for Bama. No one catches them all, but you don't drop a ball squarely in your hands with no one contesting. That is not a problem you fix in a week, or a month, or sometimes ever, IMO, when it happens week after week. A&M's receivers are tall but not really that good (except Kennedy/Noil). I have also seen KH missing a lot of passes.
Bama's O-line >>>>A&M D-line
Bama's D-line>>>>A&M O-line
If Bama fails to prove both of those, it's game/set/match; but from everything I have seen (last week was Bama's only really bad O-line performance, penalties notwithstanding), both of the above are true. Tomorrow we will know one way or the other.

I think Hill is over-rated, and it goes back to the SC game. He just happened to have his career game in his first start.

Our second team could score 24 points on the TAMU defense.

I don't buy the negativity. We get some of the swag back with this one.:biga2: