2014 NCAA Playoff-Can they keep Alabama out now?

mittman

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Jun 19, 2009
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Me too. Everyone is expecting Ole Miss to lose one of the remaining games without expecting us to. I do think our team is overall better than Ole Miss if both play their A game, but like them we do have two top 5 teams and a dangerous away game at LSU lurking. Not to mention Tennessee with a target on our OC's back compared to their bout with Arkansas. I wouldn't be surprised If CLK is still on the sideline next week that they have an umbrella for him. Again our team has a great deal to overcome to even be considered.
 

AgentAntiOrange

1st Team
Dec 30, 2009
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I don't expect us to win out. I believe that we are capable and I am hopeful that we do. And that's what this thread is intended to be about. The likelihood that we will make the playoff if we win out. Should we lose again then we are out of the conversation anyways. Also, for those who feel threads like this are premature...We are 8 days away from the inaugural committee ranking and only 5 days away from the week's game that will factor into those rankings. I'd say this conversation is right on time. ;)
 

Bama1985

1st Team
Jan 18, 2006
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I make that assumption because that is exactly how the process will work. They'll go to a hotel somewhere, deliberate for a couple of hours and release their top 4. There may be a press conference, but you're not going to know whether or not it's honest. It won't be difficult at all for them to justify their results, and if a 1-loss SEC team like Alabama is left out, only Alabama fans are ticked off. The rest of the country, especially outside of SEC territory, will be thrilled.

By "tamper expectations", I just think folks expecting us to make it in automatically if we win out are going to be disappointed. But I do hope I'm wrong.
Yes--it will be easier for the committee to justify putting in a one loss conference champion vs a one loss SEC team that did not win their division. Remember it was the LSU vs Alabama rematch National Title game that finally got the other conferences to want to restructure and create a playoff. Many of their commissioners insisted that conference champions be a qualifying criteria. Slive fought against this, but I am not so sure it isn't still an implied qualification.
 

TideEngineer08

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Well sure.. we have to win or this is all moot. I thought that was the assumption we were operating under, that we win out.

Of course, I am aware of what happens when one assumes.:smile:
 

mittman

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Jun 19, 2009
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I don't expect us to win out. I believe that we are capable and I am hopeful that we do. And that's what this thread is intended to be about. The likelihood that we will make the playoff if we win out. Should we lose again then we are out of the conversation anyways. Also, for those who feel threads like this are premature...We are 8 days away from the inaugural committee ranking and only 5 days away from the week's game that will factor into those rankings. I'd say this conversation is right on time. ;)
I agree. No problem with discussing it and hoping. Just my opinion that our team has a daunting task, and even if they accomplish it, it is in others hands. An Ole Miss loss is our best friend, and that is way more likely than other scenarios that have played out recently giving our team another opportunity.
 

B1GTide

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Apr 13, 2012
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Looking at this a little more deeply, I see a few real possibilities:

* FSU wins out - weak schedule (they would be a lock if they win out)
* ND wins out - will be very difficult for them to do so (would also be a lock with the narrow loss to FSU if they win out)
* A team other than Alabama wins the SECCG (SEC winner is in)

That leaves one spot:

* If Alabama wins out, they would be 11-1 with the most impressive record in FBS football (other than the winner of the SECCG)
* If Oregon wins out, they would be 12-1 with a decent SoS and a huge win over the likely winner of the B1G. They would probably get in ahead of Alabama.
* If Michigan State wins out they would be 12-1 but with a weak record and a loss to their only tough OOC opponent I don't see them making it over Alabama, especially if Oregon loses to another team along the way.
* If Ohio State wins out, we would be 12-1 but it is pretty hard to image anyone putting us in over Alabama with a loss to Virginia Tech at home considering the difference in our schedules.
* The Big 12 needs a bunch of miracles to happen to even have a team considered at this point.

Alabama has to win out and have either ND or Oregon drop another game to get in. The later is likely to happen. The real question - will Alabama win out?
 

Bama1985

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Looking at this a little more deeply, I see a few real possibilities:

* FSU wins out - weak schedule (they would be a lock if they win out)
* ND wins out - will be very difficult for them to do so (would also be a lock with the narrow loss to FSU if they win out)
* A team other than Alabama wins the SECCG (SEC winner is in)

That leaves one spot:

* If Alabama wins out, they would be 11-1 with the most impressive record in FBS football (other than the winner of the SECCG)
* If Oregon wins out, they would be 12-1 with a decent SoS and a huge win over the likely winner of the B1G. They would probably get in ahead of Alabama.
* If Michigan State wins out they would be 12-1 but with a weak record and a loss to their only tough OOC opponent I don't see them making it over Alabama, especially if Oregon loses to another team along the way.
* If Ohio State wins out, we would be 12-1 but it is pretty hard to image anyone putting us in over Alabama with a loss to Virginia Tech at home considering the difference in our schedules.
* The Big 12 needs a bunch of miracles to happen to even have a team considered at this point.

Alabama has to win out and have either ND or Oregon drop another game to get in. The later is likely to happen. The real question - will Alabama win out?
There is a chance that Louisville could knock off Fla State on Thursday night 30 Oct in Louisville. Bobby Petrino has a week off to get ready for this game. Louisville has one of the better defenses in college football and they get their top receiver back. A Florida State loss is what would really help a second SEC team.
 

TideMom2Boys

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Nov 17, 2010
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If we win out then we are right up there. But being "Alabama" can hurt us. I wouldn't be surprised if they are sick of us and would put a different 1 loss team in.


I would think money could drive their decision towards us. If we are #4 and Ole miss is #1 after winning the SEC. Could you imagine the amount of money they would make off that playoff game?


We sell tickets and bring in the views...and we know a lot of the CFB world is driven by money.
 

B1GTide

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There is a chance that Louisville could knock off Fla State on Thursday night 30 Oct in Louisville. Bobby Petrino has a week off to get ready for this game. Louisville has one of the better defenses in college football and they get their top receiver back. A Florida State loss is what would really help a second SEC team.
If this happens I will rejoice, and not just because it helps Alabama. I really want FSU to lose - to anyone.
 

TideMom2Boys

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If this happens I will rejoice, and not just because it helps Alabama. I really want FSU to lose - to anyone.

Same here. It is sad when an ESPN analyst states that now FSU can just sit back and coast to the playoffs. So basically...they had to win one game and they were in. Just shows you how horrible their schedule is. :rolleyes: I can't wait for them to lose...
 

KrAzY3

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Jan 18, 2006
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Here's what annoys me most about the entire premise. There are way too many people willing to accept that Alabama needs to do something other than just win. If there was no playoff, sure, absolutely, they'd need Ole Miss or FSU to lose. But, every time someone sits down and writes some absolutely insane scenario in which Alabama wins out and doesn't get in, they are inadvertently or not lending credence to the notion that the entire college football world has gone insane! Even Alabama fans are willing to play along, acting as though Michigan State or Oregon could have any sort of claim that Alabama wouldn't have.

If the season ended today, we might have a spirited debate, since Auburn would have one loss as well, and there are several other things still in play, but if Alabama wins out, their path should be clear, that is if there's any sanity left at all.

Let's pretend the polls mean nothing, that Alabama being #4 in both, with a shot at one team ahead of them is somehow meaningless. How about Sagarin (which is mainly useful for SoS)?
#2 Alabama SoS 9
#7 TCU SoS 27
#9 Oregon SoS 27
#11 Michigan State SoS 64

Now, Alabama has #3 and #4 in Sagarin still upcoming, by far the toughest road and unfortunately I still wouldn't bet on their winning out. However, if they do? Oregon, TCU, and Michigan State won't have any legitimate claim to being ahead of Alabama, not even with the playoff committee's criteria! For the record, the committee does list conference championships, but it also lists injuries and SoS, and Alabama will have the best SoS of that group along with having suffered injuries in their only loss. Also, remember at this point we're talking about the notion of picking two teams ranked behind Alabama, not just one. Can you look at those numbers and come up with anything that doesn't involve drool dripping out of your mouth in favor of leaving a one loss Alabama out?

So, why do so many people insist in providing cover for the committee? No, there's no way they should leave a one loss Alabama team out! That shouldn't happen, the committee should at least follow their own silly rules and if they don't, it won't be because there's a committee, it will be because the entire thing is rigged! Some people want it to be though, I just can't fathom why so many of us are relenting to the idea that it is and that's not worth making a heck of a lot more fuss over if that is a realistic possibility.

I do think if the committee thought they could get away with leaving out the #3 ranked team (a more egregious violation than anything the BCS ever did), they'd probably do it. However, they both have their criteria, and their first ranking comes out the 28th. That makes shenanigans that much more difficult. If they intend to try to put in TCU, Oregon, and/or Michigan State ahead of Alabama, they have to do it in their first rankings pretty much and at that point, they're betting on those teams (they'll have a lot of trouble moving some other conference champ way up). It's also quite unlikely that they all get on the same page about doing this, so try as some might, they probably can't push Alabama all the way down to 7.

If, for instance Alabama lands at #6 with the committee, they committee won't have an easy time backing out of that. So, there sits the #6 team, who will play the two other top ten teams according to the committee. They'll have painted themselves into a corner if Alabama wins out. I don't think they'll have the nerve and resourcefulness to actually come up with a plan that keeps Alabama out completely, and if they do we'll know it from the first rankings because they will have them way down at #9 or #10 and then we'll have confirmation the whole thing is a joke.

Just to put this clearly, at this point in time, we are talking about a scenario in which the #4 team in the country, goes on to beat two top ten teams, and is left out of a four team playoff. Really?!?
 

BadgerTidefan

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Dec 2, 2006
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[QUOTE.=Rolltide_PA;2489783]I don't see any 1-loss non-conference winner unseating a conference champ be it Alabama, or otherwise

i'm certainly not saying a 1-loss SEC west team deserves to be jumped by 1-loss Big 12 or 1-loss Big 10, in particular, but it will happen IMO

then again i don't think we need a lot of help. If we win out and miss state beats ole miss we will be the west champs in a 3-way tie unless UcheaT and Gators totally implode down the stretch and/or Vandy catches fire[/QUOTE]

I think you are correct. I hope no one has forgotten that there was very little serious talk about even having a playoff until Alabama and LSU played for the championship. In fact most of the commissioners were against if I remember right. I don't expect to see 2 SEC teams in it.
 

Bama1985

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Jan 18, 2006
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Same here. It is sad when an ESPN analyst states that now FSU can just sit back and coast to the playoffs. So basically...they had to win one game and they were in. Just shows you how horrible their schedule is. :rolleyes: I can't wait for them to lose...
If Clemson had not been clemsonning FSU would already be out of the way.
 

TideEngineer08

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Just to put this clearly, at this point in time, we are talking about a scenario in which the #4 team in the country, goes on to beat two top ten teams, and is left out of a four team playoff. Really?!?
1. "#4 team in the country" means absolutely nothing. NOTHING. We'll have a committee deciding this - not a poll. Now, we will definitely know more when the committee issues it's first ranking next week. If Alabama takes care of business against Tennessee and is #4 or better in the initial playoff poll, then your statement has more credence.

2. In making my statements of concern, I am operating under the assumption that this committee will value conference championships just as highly as SOS, and also use selective logic when considering such nonsense as injuries and suspensions (which shouldn't be considered at all). Quite honestly I am looking at this with a glass half empty, and assuming the worst. I'm hearing way too much Oregon this, and Notre Dame that from the talking heads (granted, none of whom are on the committee).

3. I'm also assuming FSU wins out, Notre Dame wins out, Michigan State wins out, and Oregon wins out. I don't see an Alabama, that doesn't win the West, in the playoff if all of that happens (again, by using the faulty logic that I'm concerned will infect the committee).

Again, that is a lot of worrying over something that is months (and many games) away, and it is also assuming the worst about the committee. That first poll coming out next week will definitely tell us a lot. Up until now, we only have pontification from the media to go by.
 

PacadermaTideUs

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Dec 10, 2009
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Here's what annoys me most about the entire premise.
I started to type a point by point response to this. But in the end here's the only fact that matters: at this point, no one knows what the committee intends to do. Therefore, no one knows what we need to make the playoffs.

Anybody who says, "If we win out, we're in, period" is full of manure.
Anyone who says "Unless we're in a three-way tie or Ole Miss loses twice, we're out, period" is full of manure.

We'll know more about the committee's true internal guidelines by next Tuesday. At that point, we'll know what we need to make the playoffs, whether we control our own destiny or whether we need some help. All of this hand-wringing, arguing and uproar is premature and pointless.

For the record though, I don't think anyone here is endorsing or lending credence to the committee putting a less deserving team in over an 11-1 Bama. Expectation does not equal validation.
 

alwayshavebeen

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Maybe Las Vegas has all the answers...FULL STORY
Alabama 13/2
Ole Miss 13/2
Michigan State 7/1
Florida State 15/2
Mississippi State 15/2
Georgia 15/2
Oregon 15/2
Ohio State 9/1
Auburn 12/1
TCU 20/1
Kansas State 28/1
Baylor 30/1
Notre Dame 35/1
Nebraska 45/1
USC 70/1
Arizona State 85/1
UCLA 85/1
Arizona 100/1
Utah 100/1
Clemson 115/1
Oklahoma 115/1
Field (Any Other Team) 200/1
LSU 300/1
Duke 500/1
Missouri 1000/1
Oklahoma State 1000/1
Stanford 1000/1
Wisconsin 1000/1
Louisville 5000/1
 

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