2014 NCAA Playoff-Can they keep Alabama out now?

bamadp

All-SEC
Sep 24, 2006
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Sheffield, Al.
I make that assumption because that is exactly how the process will work. They'll go to a hotel somewhere, deliberate for a couple of hours and release their top 4. There may be a press conference, but you're not going to know whether or not it's honest. It won't be difficult at all for them to justify their results, and if a 1-loss SEC team like Alabama is left out, only Alabama fans are ticked off. The rest of the country, especially outside of SEC territory, will be thrilled.

By "tamper expectations", I just think folks expecting us to make it in automatically if we win out are going to be disappointed. But I do hope I'm wrong.
BINGO!!!

The only way a one loss non SEC champ Bama gets in is if there are only two one loss teams to choose from...and we're one of them. It's way to early to be "assuming", there's a lot of games yet to be played...but this is a message board so "assuming" fans are to be expected. But if you're going to "assume" Bama, Ole Miss and FSU are going to win out, you also must "assume" Oregon, Baylor/KSU, MSU/tOSU, and ND win out also. In that case you'd have five one loss teams vying for two spots. Three conference champs, 11-1 ND, and 11-1 non champ Bama. Though being a conference champ is not technically mandatory, I believe it will be an "unwritten" rule...after all the BCS did that just a few years ago, and apparently the ptb did not like it...look where they are now. :wink: As another poster stated, this final four is not about the best teams, it's about groups.It's not only about inclusion, but also exclusion. If they put Bama in, they'd have to leave three of those four groups out. IMO, if there are five one loss teams left, Bama is at the bottom of the list. I think the final four would be FSU, Ole Miss, Oregon, and ND,and they'd be seeded so that ND and FSU could possibly rematch in the ncg.

But all this is based on pure speculation...there's a lot of football left, and anything can happen. We just need to play our best from here on out...if we don't, it's a moot point anyway. Let's stomp UT as the next step. :biggrin2:
 

bamadp

All-SEC
Sep 24, 2006
1,023
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Sheffield, Al.
I think this 4 team playoff will turn in to an 8 team playoff pretty quick.


I think you're exactly right. I think that if ND wins out, they're in. That means at least two power five conferences will be shut out...probably the Big-10 and Big-12. That encompasses a lot of fans and a lot the country. I foresee a lot of whining and a move toward eight teams in an attempt to make more people happy...and ESPN will have dollar signs in their eyes. :wink:
 

Al A Bama

Hall of Fame
Jun 24, 2011
6,658
934
132
We need a thread with our predictions regarding how the Play-off Committee will rank the teams after next Saturday's games. I trust this committee even less since Archie's not on it.

Let's see how close we will be to the Committees ranking. My first prediction is that the committee will NOT rank Alabama higher than 5th or 6th even with a lopsided win on Saturday. They will probably rank FSU, MSU, Ole Miss, ND, Oregon and another MSU higher than Bama. So, Bama may even come in at 7th in the ranking. They may even rank a Big12-2 team higher than Bama.

Also, how many teams will they rank? The top 25 or less?
 

B1GTide

TideFans Legend
Apr 13, 2012
45,504
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We need a thread with our predictions regarding how the Play-off Committee will rank the teams after next Saturday's games. I trust this committee even less since Archie's not on it.

Let's see how close we will be to the Committees ranking. My first prediction is that the committee will NOT rank Alabama higher than 5th or 6th even with a lopsided win on Saturday. They will probably rank FSU, MSU, Ole Miss, ND, Oregon and another MSU higher than Bama. So, Bama may even come in at 7th in the ranking. They may even rank a Big12-2 team higher than Bama.

Also, how many teams will they rank? The top 25 or less?
This will be a good topic for a thread after this week's games have been played.
 

ptw1961

1st Team
Dec 8, 2011
793
0
0
Do not believe Michigan St can play the Buckeyes twice- are they not in the same division?
I agree completely. We need to get to Atlanta and win or we probably will not get in. The cry for conference champions to be included will be too much. Michigan St has an opportunity to beat Ohio State twice -- lets hope they lose one of those contest. We need Oregon to lose again too -- this probably will not happen.

Also lost the only SEC rep to the committee with Archie Manning removing himself today. Of course he would not have wanted Ole Miss to have to play Alabama a second time.
 

theballguy

Hall of Fame
Nov 5, 2012
6,268
1,083
187
Roll Tide Roll, Colorado USA
It will be this:

Winner of the SEC
Winner of the Big 12
Winner of the Pac 12
FSU

Next:

In this order:

1. Winner of the B1G (not likely)
2. Notre Dame if they win out and their resume is more impressive than a Big12 and Pac12 winner (very likely not going to happen) and better of the team selected below:
3. Whichever SEC team that has an obvious better record than the Big12 and Pac12 winner and by that I mean at a minimum: take the best record of these teams that do NOT win the SEC: Ole Miss, Miss State, Alabama and Georgia *after* the SEC championship game and that team must have a better record (forget resume) than the Big12 AND Pac12 winner. (almost certain to never happen even if all these happen as I've outlined)

You have to remember, this whole thing was designed more so that no 2 teams from the same conference gets into the title game than it was for getting the best 4 teams in the country. Man, I miss the BCS. It was truly the best system. If we could just keep the polls and computers, then yeah a playoff would be awesome but that's not how it's designed. We have to win out and Ole Miss has to lose 2 games. The odds are stacked against us. Some of it we did to ourselves and some of it is by design. Sorry to say.
 

TDBama78

All-American
Jul 11, 2007
3,910
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If we keep putting goose eggs on the board and beating smile off the other team they will have no choice but to include us.
 

bamadp

All-SEC
Sep 24, 2006
1,023
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Sheffield, Al.
I started to type a point by point response to this. But in the end here's the only fact that matters: at this point, no one knows what the committee intends to do. Therefore, no one knows what we need to make the playoffs.

Anybody who says, "If we win out, we're in, period" is full of manure.
Anyone who says "Unless we're in a three-way tie or Ole Miss loses twice, we're out, period" is full of manure.

We'll know more about the committee's true internal guidelines by next Tuesday. At that point, we'll know what we need to make the playoffs, whether we control our own destiny or whether we need some help. All of this hand-wringing, arguing and uproar is premature and pointless.

For the record though, I don't think anyone here is endorsing or lending credence to the committee putting a less deserving team in over an 11-1 Bama. Expectation does not equal validation.
You're right, at this point no one knows what this committee will do. All we have to go on is past history, and that indicates to me that a second SEC team is not the way to go. In the Bama/Okie St. debate, the BCS chose the best team, not the most popular team, and were immediately scrapped. I'm afraid this playoff will be about getting the most popular teams, not necessarily the best teams...they're seldom the same. Maybe I'm wrong and this committee will do what's right, pick the best teams and let the chips fall where they may, but recent history says otherwise. ESPN paid a lot of money for these playoffs. The #1 thing they don't want is an all SEC rematch in the ncg. They can avoid that by not putting two SEC teams in the final four to begin with...and that does not bode well for a second SEC team. Even if, for whatever reason, they can't avoid it, they can fall back on the seeding process.

You're right, speculation is pointless and has no effect on what actually happens, but that's what fans can and will do. :smile:
 

Alasippi

Suspended
Aug 31, 2007
12,875
2
57
Ocean Springs, MS
I'll just say this. If the objective of the committee is anything less than to pick the best four teams in college football, regardless of conference status, or finishing position, it needs to cease to exist immediately.
That simple.
sip
 

Tidewater

Hall of Fame
Mar 15, 2003
22,401
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Hooterville, Vir.
Just to add my two cents, the late season for the last few years has had some weird outcomes. WVU loses late unexpectedly. Iowa State has an unexpected late season victory, etc. Weird things happen.
The only thing I know for sure (and even that ain't absolutely for sure) is that if Bama loses again, this is (almost certainly) all a moot point for us.
 

PacadermaTideUs

All-American
Dec 10, 2009
4,072
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You're right, speculation is pointless and has no effect on what actually happens, but that's what fans can and will do. :smile:
I don't have a problem with speculation. I happen to share your opinion, and I've expressed it many times (ask B1GTide). But they're just opinions. Some seem to think they know what will happen though (no one does), and if anyone disagrees with their opinion, they are foolish or worse, aiding the enemy. Nothing wrong with speculation. But people who argue the same points over and over and get riled up over the differences of opinion, ought to Keep Calm and Roll On.
 

bamacpa

All-American
Jul 19, 2006
4,783
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I think the committee will be aiming for conference champions, and you can never underestimate the mystique of Notre Dame.
 

Bama1985

1st Team
Jan 18, 2006
794
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Calhoun County
Do not believe Michigan St can play the Buckeyes twice- are they not in the same division?
Yes you are correct. The Big Ten just did another realignment this year and now Michigan St and Ohio St are in the same division.
Last year they did play each other in the Big Ten Championship Game.
 

81usaf92

TideFans Legend
Apr 26, 2008
35,306
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South Alabama
the real question is what if it comes down a scenario like this:
1.FSU wins out=Lock for playoff
2.Bama and ole Miss wins out in the regular season=Ole Miss in Atlanta
3.UGA loses to Auburn and Mizzou wins out=Mizzou to Atlanta
4.Mizzou upsets Ole Miss
5.Mich St wins out
6.Oregon wins out
7.ND wins out
8.KSU wins out and beats WVU by a wider margin than us

all of these with the exception of number 4 seem somewhat reasonably possible, but college football has wild upsets that anygiven saturday can change due to injuries,emotions,and gameplanning. In this scenario you would have FSU undefeated and a guarenteed lock, 3 of the 5 power conference champions with one loss, a two loss SEC champion, an independent 1 loss team whose loss would be to the number 1 team, and two loss SEC teams hat arent champions. this is the worst scenario we could face right now
 

Bama1985

1st Team
Jan 18, 2006
794
126
62
61
Calhoun County
It will be this:

Winner of the SEC
Winner of the Big 12
Winner of the Pac 12
FSU

Next:

In this order:

1. Winner of the B1G (not likely)
2. Notre Dame if they win out and their resume is more impressive than a Big12 and Pac12 winner (very likely not going to happen) and better of the team selected below:
3. Whichever SEC team that has an obvious better record than the Big12 and Pac12 winner and by that I mean at a minimum: take the best record of these teams that do NOT win the SEC: Ole Miss, Miss State, Alabama and Georgia *after* the SEC championship game and that team must have a better record (forget resume) than the Big12 AND Pac12 winner. (almost certain to never happen even if all these happen as I've outlined)

You have to remember, this whole thing was designed more so that no 2 teams from the same conference gets into the title game than it was for getting the best 4 teams in the country. Man, I miss the BCS. It was truly the best system. If we could just keep the polls and computers, then yeah a playoff would be awesome but that's not how it's designed. We have to win out and Ole Miss has to lose 2 games. The odds are stacked against us. Some of it we did to ourselves and some of it is by design. Sorry to say.

Agreed--they should have kept the same polls and ranking system that the BCS used and simply chosen the best four teams. I think Mike Slive just got hoodwinked by the other conferences. He probably just realized he was tricked --No wonder he is resigning.
 

bamaga

Hall of Fame
Apr 29, 2002
13,379
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JAWJA
I think this 4 team playoff will turn in to an 8 team playoff pretty quick.
Been saying this all along. Got hammered for it. It has to expand. Otherwise, some deserving team will get screwed over. I heard a talking head say that three of the 4 playoff team should come from the SECW, but only 1 will get in.

The only way we get in is to win the SECCG. The possibility of a Bama-Ol'Spit rematch will keep us out, if we don't win it.
Ole Siss is probably shaking in their boots with the thought of a rematch at a neutral site.

Ok, so what happens if Bama wins out, beats everyone left on schedule by 3 touchdowns. , ole miss wins out , Georgia wins out, beats Ole Miss in Atlanta by a field Goal. Three deserving one loss SEC teams. BAMA IS DOMINANT, Ole Miss beat us, and Georgia is Sec champ. That would be a tough decision by the committee.
Everyone is talking about Michigan State. But right now, Ohio State is rolling . They look to be a very good team. With the exception of a meltdown in the 4th against Baylor, TCU looks to be a strong team. Bama fans should be able to relate to a late game meltdown. Georgia is playing as good of football as any team in the conference. Without their best player.
I think Bama should make the playoffs if they win out . but I havent been asked to take Archie's place. Not yet anyway. There is a lot of football left, and all spots are still up for grabs.
 

selmaborntidefan

TideFans Legend
Mar 31, 2000
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Lord, everybody take a chill pill.

Georgia-Auburn - eliminates one SEC team
MSU-Ole Miss - eliminates one SEC team
KState-Baylor - eliminates one Big 12 team

For those saying, "I think X will win out..."

Virginia couldn't possibly beat FSU in 1995
Arizona State couldn't beat Nebraska in 1996 (and neither could Texas)
Kansas State had no chance against OU, the "greatest team of all-time" in 2003
UCLA couldn't possibly beat USC in 2006
WVA was a shoo-in against awful Pitt in 2007
Utah had no prayer against Alabama in 2008
Iowa State couldn't beat Okie State in 2011

I mean......how many examples do I have to give you?

Mississippi State has yet to play a football game with that bullseyes squarely on their backs. Keep in mind that they turned the ball over FOUR times against Auburn; if the Tigers had a good defense, MSU would have a loss now.

Remember how the fulcrum of pressure swung on Oregon and K-State in 2012? Or Notre Dame in 1993 when they played BC?

Geez folks, we have won TWO national titles recently after losing games on November 5 and November 10. And without the Prayer at Jordan-Hare, we'd have made the championship game last year after losing on November 30.
 

GreatDanish

Hall of Fame
Nov 22, 2005
6,079
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Lord, everybody take a chill pill.

Georgia-Auburn - eliminates one SEC team
MSU-Ole Miss - eliminates one SEC team
KState-Baylor - eliminates one Big 12 team

For those saying, "I think X will win out..."

Virginia couldn't possibly beat FSU in 1995
Arizona State couldn't beat Nebraska in 1996 (and neither could Texas)
Kansas State had no chance against OU, the "greatest team of all-time" in 2003
UCLA couldn't possibly beat USC in 2006
WVA was a shoo-in against awful Pitt in 2007
Utah had no prayer against Alabama in 2008
Iowa State couldn't beat Okie State in 2011

I mean......how many examples do I have to give you?

Mississippi State has yet to play a football game with that bullseyes squarely on their backs. Keep in mind that they turned the ball over FOUR times against Auburn; if the Tigers had a good defense, MSU would have a loss now.

Remember how the fulcrum of pressure swung on Oregon and K-State in 2012? Or Notre Dame in 1993 when they played BC?

Geez folks, we have won TWO national titles recently after losing games on November 5 and November 10. And without the Prayer at Jordan-Hare, we'd have made the championship game last year after losing on November 30.
completely agree. Teams at the top will be losing in the coming weeks.
But, there's also a voice inside me reminding me that FSU's toughest remaining game might be either Duke or Louisville.
 

KrAzY3

Hall of Fame
Jan 18, 2006
10,615
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Been saying this all along. Got hammered for it. It has to expand. Otherwise, some deserving team will get screwed over. I heard a talking head say that three of the 4 playoff team should come from the SECW, but only 1 will get in.
The idea of saying the same exact, crooked system should expand because it's so utterly screwed up is really ridiculous. If you give them 8 slots, they'll just be do even more absurd things with them perhaps like the BCS bowls when they actually put an unranked team in there once. Also, allow me to add that the BCS had a two per conference rule, don't think for one second that an 8 team playoff that would keep non-conference champs out of a 4 team one wouldn't do the same thing. The worst thing you can do is reward a screwed up committee with twice as many teams.

If they can't get it right with 4, they darn sure can't get it right with 8. Let's not kid ourselves though, we're discussing the possibility of a #3 or even #2 ranked team being left out because the playoff might be a farce. They simply must be held to a higher standard, or if there is to be any changes it should be an elimination of a playoff!

Having said that, I still contend that Alabama has a clear path, but only because there's only so much I think the committee can and should get away with. The more people buy in though, the more people that keep parroting that only conference champs will get in, and expansion of their power with 8 teams chosen by a committee stuff, the more they'll feel they can get away with.
 
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