2014 NCAA Playoff-Can they keep Alabama out now?

KrAzY3 said:

The idea of saying the same exact, crooked system expand because it's so utterly screwed up is really ridiculous. If you give them 8 slots, they'll just be do even more absurd things with them perhaps like the BCS bowls when they actually put an unranked team in there once. Also, allow me to add that the BCS had a two per conference rule, don't think for one second that an 8 team playoff that would keep non-conference champs out of a 4 team one wouldn't do the same thing. The worst thing you can do is reward a screwed up committee with twice as many teams.

If they can't get it right with 4, they darn sure can't get it right with 8. Let's not kid ourselves though, we're discussing the possibility of a #3 or even #2 ranked team being left out because the playoff might be a farce. They simply must be held to a higher standard, or if there is to be any changes it should be an elimination of a playoff!

Having said that, I still contend that Alabama has a clear path, but only because there's only so much I think the committee can and should get away with. The more people buy in though, the more people that keep parroting that only conference champs will get in, and expansion of their power with 8 teams chosen by a committee stuff, the more they'll feel they can get away with.

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Who said it was utterly screwed up? Who said it was crooked? But, they do make mistakes, and have different ideas on what a good team looks like. They play good football in other parts of the COUNTRY.
Simple , if they can't get the best 4 with 4, they have more room for error with 8. Should of been 8 from the beginning. Too many different people have too many different ideas on the criteria that makes a good team. If Notre Dame and Florida State win out. I will almost bet the farm those two make it. Then the SecC, if that isn't Bama, we may be in trouble. You have the Pac12 champ, the Big 12 champ and the Big 10 champ vying for that spot. If they all have 1 loss, some will claim they are deserving. Especially when it has already been stated winning your conference is a component to being a good team and will have weight with the committee. Whether you like the committee or not, or think its wrong. Those facts have already been announced. I am almost certain, especially if ND gets in, only them and conference champions make it the first year. My prediction is ND,FSU,PAC12 and SEC.

bamaga said:

Who said it was utterly screwed up? Who said it was crooked?

I am almost certain, especially if ND gets in, only them and conference champions make it the first year. My prediction is ND,FSU,PAC12 and SEC.

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Sounds to me like you just did...

Ok, let's try this another way. Why on earth would Notre Dame deserve to get in over Alabama, assuming both win out? If you can't provide a good answer to that question (and I'm waiting), and still think the committee will do that, and if you can't provide a good answer for why the Pac-12 champion would get in instead of Alabama, then of course it's utterly screwed up and crooked! This is the biggest problem I have with some of the posts. Not that everyone knows that committee is screwed up, that some people think the committee will do something screwed up, and don't seem to have a problem with that, in fact it's like Rod Gilmore brainwashed them out of thinking clearly or something.

But, let me explain what an 8 team playoff that those morons put together would look like.
5 automatic qualifiers (conference champions), and a maximum of two per conference. That would be worse, because the only thing worse than denying a deserving team a shot at a championship, is to give a completely undeserving team a shot at a championship.

Still a lot of football to be played. For Bama to win out will take a major star alignment. Notre Dame usually finds a way to lose one and Florida State is not invincible. This will be a great discussion in four weeks.

bamaga said:

Been saying this all along. Got hammered for it. It has to expand. Otherwise, some deserving team will get screwed over. I heard a talking head say that three of the 4 playoff team should come from the SECW, but only 1 will get in.

Ole Siss is probably shaking in their boots with the thought of a rematch at a neutral site.

Ok, so what happens if Bama wins out, beats everyone left on schedule by 3 touchdowns. , ole miss wins out , Georgia wins out, beats Ole Miss in Atlanta by a field Goal. Three deserving one loss SEC teams. BAMA IS DOMINANT, Ole Miss beat us, and Georgia is Sec champ. That would be a tough decision by the committee.
Everyone is talking about Michigan State. But right now, Ohio State is rolling . They look to be a very good team. With the exception of a meltdown in the 4th against Baylor, TCU looks to be a strong team. Bama fans should be able to relate to a late game meltdown. Georgia is playing as good of football as any team in the conference. Without their best player.
I think Bama should make the playoffs if they win out . but I havent been asked to take Archie's place. Not yet anyway. There is a lot of football left, and all spots are still up for grabs.

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Unfortunately the bigger the joke it is the better the system will become. I hope anyway. I just hope we aren't the ones that get left out. Like you said, some deserving team will get left out.

Ole Miss winning out regular season and losing to a 1-loss GA in the SECCG is probably worse case scenario for us.

KrAzY3 said:

Sounds to me like you just did...

Ok, let's try this another way. Why on earth would Notre Dame deserve to get in over Alabama, assuming both win out?

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They and Alabama have very similar stories, IMO. Hard to tell their seasons apart if both end up 11-1.

ND's schedule includes Stanford, FSU, ASU, Louisville & USC.

Alabama's schedule includes WVU, Ole Miss, aTm, LSU, MSU & Auburn.

This is exactly what the comittee has said that they want to see. Is it a tougher schedule than Alabama's? Of course not, but it is still very impressive. And their only loss is the one to FSU, on the road, and they had a chance to win it on their last possession. Alabama's only loss is to Ole Miss, on the road, in a game in which you suffered three injuries and you still had a chance to win it on your last possession.

IMO, your argument should not be against ND getting in ahead of Alabama - it should be against any other one loss team from any other conference getting in ahead of Alabama. Those are the schools with very suspect schedules and really bad losses.

A lot if this will clear itself up. Especially when AU beasts Ole Miss

Nearly fifty years later, the way Bama was treated in 1966 has left many older Bama fans skeptical of how "fair" any process will be that involves human opinion rather than results on the field in deciding who is number one...

I'm starting to warm up to the idea of an 8 team playoff with 5 conference champions and 3 at large teams. Just go to 10 game season with 8 conference games and 2 games against other power conference teams. The ambiguousness of the committee's selection criteria is unsettling..

bamaga said:

Who said it was utterly screwed up? Who said it was crooked? But, they do make mistakes, and have different ideas on what a good team looks like. They play good football in other parts of the COUNTRY.
Simple , if they can't get the best 4 with 4, they have more room for error with 8. Should of been 8 from the beginning. Too many different people have too many different ideas on the criteria that makes a good team. If Notre Dame and Florida State win out. I will almost bet the farm those two make it. Then the SecC, if that isn't Bama, we may be in trouble. You have the Pac12 champ, the Big 12 champ and the Big 10 champ vying for that spot. If they all have 1 loss, some will claim they are deserving. Especially when it has already been stated winning your conference is a component to being a good team and will have weight with the committee. Whether you like the committee or not, or think its wrong. Those facts have already been announced. I am almost certain, especially if ND gets in, only them and conference champions make it the first year. My prediction is ND,FSU,PAC12 and SEC.

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You have totally convinced me it is utterly screwed up.

KrAzY3 said:

Sounds to me like you just did...

Ok, let's try this another way. Why on earth would Notre Dame deserve to get in over Alabama, assuming both win out? If you can't provide a good answer to that question (and I'm waiting), and still think the committee will do that, and if you can't provide a good answer for why the Pac-12 champion would get in instead of Alabama, then of course it's utterly screwed up and crooked! This is the biggest problem I have with some of the posts. Not that everyone knows that committee is screwed up, that some people think the committee will do something screwed up, and don't seem to have a problem with that, in fact it's like Rod Gilmore brainwashed them out of thinking clearly or something.

But, let me explain what an 8 team playoff that those morons put together would look like.
5 automatic qualifiers (conference champions), and a maximum of two per conference. That would be worse, because the only thing worse than denying a deserving team a shot at a championship, is to give a completely undeserving team a shot at a championship.

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I don't think anyone is saying Notre Dame deserves to get in above Alabama. There is a fear (very justified, IMO) that Alabama will be left out because they didn't even win their division and we can't have Alabama yet again getting into the championship after they didn't even win their division.

Yes, it is selective enforcement of a mythical rule. The problem is that anyone who paid attention to this process as it unfolded has to know that the playoff only came about because the SEC got both BCS slots in 2011. You also have to know that a committee was formed, instead of retaining the BCS rankings or coming up with some other objective ranking system, because they (other conferences) wanted full control of which teams were granted access to the playoff. They didn't want some pesky unbiased computer formula selecting too many teams from the same conference (SEC).

You, Krazy3, of all people, ought to understand all of this. Knowing what you've posted before on this subject, it's baffling to me that you've taken the stance you have in this thread.

But in conclusion... I understand all of this hand wringing is nonsense at this point because we're just 7 games in and no one knows what the committee is going to do. Next week's initial committee rankings are going to be very revealing and that will give us a hint of their thought process and also give us something more concrete to discuss. However, I will mention, Cecil Hurt posted last night on Twitter that Archie Manning was a vocal voice on that committee, and his preference was the 4 best teams regardless of conference. His absence will hurt the SEC, I'm afraid.

TideEngineer08 said:

I don't think anyone is saying Notre Dame deserves to get in above Alabama. There is a fear (very justified, IMO) that Alabama will be left out because they didn't even win their division and we can't have Alabama yet again getting into the championship after they didn't even win their division.

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I think what Krazy is saying is that if no one can even make an argument for why Notre Dame is more deserving, then the committee would be committing suicide by selecting them over Alabama. They still have a reputation to uphold if they want to continue.

I think the first rankings that come out will be telling. If Alabama is in the top 4 in this ranking, then the "win out and we're in" crowd will be effectively correct. Because if Alabama is #4 now and they win out, they should be, at worst, #3 at the end of the season and probably #2. If the committee then drops them to #5 just so they don't make the playoff, it would completely invalidate their own rankings from earlier in the year - which means all teams and all fanbases will consider the mid-season rankings meaningless. And that is the about the worst thing the playoff committee can do - convince the public their rankings are meaningless.

GreatDanish said:

I think what Krazy is saying is that if no one can even make an argument for why Notre Dame is more deserving, then the committee would be committing suicide by selecting them over Alabama. They still have a reputation to uphold if they want to continue.

I think the first rankings that come out will be telling. If Alabama is in the top 4 in this ranking, then the "win out and we're in" crowd will be effectively correct. Because if Alabama is #4 now and they win out, they should be, at worst, #3 at the end of the season and probably #2. If the committee then drops them to #5 just so they don't make the playoff, it would completely invalidate their own rankings from earlier in the year - which means all teams and all fanbases will consider the mid-season rankings meaningless. And that is the about the worst thing the playoff committee can do - convince the public their rankings are meaningless.

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It would also make the committee look rather stupid if Bama wins out and does not get in, and Vegas then says "Bama would be 14 point favorites over every team in the playoff with the exception of Florida State".
Meanwhile we just need to win our games and not worry about it.
sip

Alasippi said:

It would also make the committee look rather stupid if Bama wins out and does not get in, and Vegas then says "Bama would be 14 point favorites over every team in the playoff with the exception of Florida State".
Meanwhile we just need to win our games and not worry about it.
sip

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Although, maybe I would love it a little if Alabama doesn't make the playoff, annihilates Oregon in the Sugar Bowl (or whatever bowl), and ends up a near consensus #1 in the AP Poll after the playoff.

Bama1985 said:

No---Not if Ole Miss and FSU win out and Michigan State is a 1 loss conference champion and Oregon is a 1 loss conference champion. Bama will not get in. This playoff system was designed by the rest of the conferences so that they could be included. Bama needs to get to Atlanta and win.

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Oregon beat MSU - from two less than stellar conferences, both of them will not make the final 4 with one loss; it would be Oregon, not MSU. MSU has to win out and hope Oregon loses.

Good night, the anxiety around here is palpable!!!

1) If we don't win out, none of this now eight-page discussion even matters at least as far as the Tide is concerned.

2) For those complaining about it being settled on the field - look, we lost to Ole Miss. Period. That's on us.

3) This type of discussion and anxiety is precisely what college football wanted - now everyone is talking about it. This is sort of the wild card in baseball (which I still hate) theory. Even though team A might be at 15....if they only have one loss right now they're still "in it." Right now more folks are talking and paying attention than ever before (or so it seems).

4) Notre Dame can easily be included over Alabama by multiple criteria based upon what the committee takes into account. They could argue that Notre Dame "really" beat FSU and lost on a "technicality," they could note that the Irish beat Stanford by more points than Oregon (assuming this happens) AND beat Louisville by more than FSU (again assuming this occurs), or they could just decide "you know, this whole thing blew up when the last system included non-division winning Alabama and we don't want to do that again."

They could even argue that the Irish lost by fewer points on the road to FSU than Alabama did to Ole Miss.

There are MULTIPLE criteria a selection committee could use to pick Notre Dame over Alabama. Don't make it right, but there are some. We have them on SOS and will have knocked off some good teams before then if we're in this talk.

5) I think everyone needs to remember that both our dominance lately and our fanbase actually gives us a leg up. This is NOT the Notre Dame of 25 years ago that always got its way. Their fan support has dispersed and fallen below the surface from what it used to be.

The problem I have is the old "Oregon had injuries against Arizona" (e.g. the Colt McCoy Excuse) - because if that's true, well, we lost Drake early on in the Ole Miss game - you think we don't win that game if he plays? Plus, we lost two other players and led until the final five minutes.


And the argument from ranking doesn't even apply - folks, those rankings are MYTHS now, TOTAL MYTHS. So don't get all caught up in "but we're number four and they're number seven." It doesn't matter and you knew this before the season began.

GreatDanish said:

Although, maybe I would love it a little if Alabama doesn't make the playoff, annihilates Oregon in the Sugar Bowl (or whatever bowl), and ends up a near consensus #1 in the AP Poll after the playoff.

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This is funny to me because three years ago 90% of the Tide fans here were mocking the AP poll as being useless and irrelevant because they feared LSU was going to win a split because of the regular season win. So now we're back to saying the AP poll matters? (No reflection upon you necessarily, but I watched that argument and now I'm like "Huh?")

OM goes undefeated, Bama wins out, as does ND; only two undefeated teams, and then two one-loss teams. Which two? Bama and ND both lost to the unbeatens, at their place, in close games that really weren't decided until the end.
I don't see how any other one loss teams would have the resume to match either one.

I'd like to remind everyone that November always straightens out the playing field with respect to rankings and wins/losses. Every year a previously unbeatable juggernaut or two loses inexplicably to a lesser team in November. So, while it's good to discuss the 47 ways we will not get it, let November work it's magic on the pretenders, and if we only have one loss, we'll be one of the few 1 loss teams heading into the playoffs. If we keep beating teams up like Texas A&M, it could be a good thing, as it's possible we could be the only 1 loss SEC team after the SEC championship game without playing in it.