2014 NCAA Playoff-Can they keep Alabama out now?

AgentAntiOrange

1st Team
Dec 30, 2009
888
0
0
Norman, OK
Alabama currently sits #4 in both major polls with #1 and #5/#6 still on the schedule. Provided Florida State, Alabama and Ole Miss win out, that will place us solidly at #3 with our only loss being to the undefeated #1/#2 team in the country. To keep us out they would have to drop us behind at least 2 teams. The contenders to pass us:

Oregon: Could be a 1 loss Conference winner but really only have 1 win to hang their hat on with not much left on the schedule and their 1 loss to Arizona doesn't really compare to our 1 loss.

ND: Like us, their 1 loss is to an undefeated, top ranked team. However, also like us, they won't play in a conference championship or be a conference champion. If they win out they could slide back in to contention but in doing so will hurt Oregon's SOS by beating both Arizona State (possible PAC12 South representative) and USC (another PAC12 South contender).

Michigan State: Lost handily to Oregon and doesn't really have much left on the schedule. It would be difficult for both Oregon and Michigan State to get in and if Oregon doesn't get in.....how can you put Michigan State ahead of them?

I believe that only ND has a realistic shot at passing us which would put as at #4 at the worst. I don't see Oregon or Michigan State passing us if we win out no matter what else happens.

The one team that could could cause us a real concern, IMHO, is Georgia. Let's say that UGA wins out, represents the East, and upsets Ole Miss. Then the AP top 5 might look like:

1.Florida State
2.Alabama
3.Georgia
4.Notre Dame
5.Ole Miss
6.Oregon

I could see the committee dropping us to 5 in this scenario. Outside of that, though, I feel like we control our own destiny.

Thoughts?
 

scrodz

1st Team
Jan 29, 2008
430
60
52
Baltimore, MD
Under those circumstances, I don't think ND could pass us. They wouldn't be able to play the "conference champion" card, and their SOS gets worse with each passing week.
 

TideEngineer08

TideFans Legend
Jun 9, 2009
36,284
30,895
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Beautiful Cullman, AL
They can and will keep us out. The only way for us to guarantee that doesn't happen is to win out, have Ole Miss lose twice or have a 3-way tie that we win and go to Atlanta and win the SEC title. That would have us 12-1, SEC champions. That is the only way we guarantee our place in the top 4.

Any other result and we'll be left in the hands of the committee. I'm not a fan of that situation.
 

GreatDanish

Hall of Fame
Nov 22, 2005
6,079
0
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TN
If we win out, it will take some real mental gymnastics to justify us NOT being in the top 4. If we won every game 14-13, maybe there's an argument. But when we end up with (A) the second best record in the country, (B) one of the 10-20 hardest schedules, (C) the single most dominant performance of the season, (D) possibly having the best loss of all the one-loss teams, and (E) our one loss included three significant injuries, they are going to have to use "Who's On First" level intelligence to keep us out.
 

Bama1985

1st Team
Jan 18, 2006
794
126
62
61
Calhoun County
They can and will keep us out. The only way for us to guarantee that doesn't happen is to win out, have Ole Miss lose twice or have a 3-way tie that we win and go to Atlanta and win the SEC title. That would have us 12-1, SEC champions. That is the only way we guarantee our place in the top 4.

Any other result and we'll be left in the hands of the committee. I'm not a fan of that situation.
I agree completely. We need to get to Atlanta and win or we probably will not get in. The cry for conference champions to be included will be too much. We need Michigan St and Oregon to lose again too -- this probably will not happen.

Also lost the only SEC rep to the committee with Archie Manning removing himself today. Of course he would not have wanted Ole Miss to have to play Alabama a second time.
 
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Ldlane

Hall of Fame
Nov 26, 2002
14,253
398
102
If they just take the "top 4" ranked teams from the polls, then there is no need for a selection committee. I don't think "ranking" in the polls will be priority.
 

Born2Roll

3rd Team
Oct 8, 2004
219
0
0
Tallahassee, FL
In that case (assuming that Alabama, Georgia, and Ole Miss all have one loss), I think the committee would use head-to-head. I don't see them putting 3 SEC teams in the playoff. In my opinion, it would be:

1. Florida State
2. Notre Dame
3. Georgia
4. Ole Miss

I don't see that happening though. I think Auburn will beat Georgia and Miss. St. will beat Ole Miss.
 

JamieSPC

1st Team
Aug 29, 2004
785
172
67
Maylene, AL
If we win out, it will take some real mental gymnastics to justify us NOT being in the top 4. If we won every game 14-13, maybe there's an argument. But when we end up with (A) the second best record in the country, (B) one of the 10-20 hardest schedules, (C) the single most dominant performance of the season, (D) possibly having the best loss of all the one-loss teams, and (E) our one loss included three significant injuries, they are going to have to use "Who's On First" level intelligence to keep us out.
Exactly. Everything we have heard publicly about what is considered by the committee in a loss points to us.
 

AgentAntiOrange

1st Team
Dec 30, 2009
888
0
0
Norman, OK
If they just take the "top 4" ranked teams from the polls, then there is no need for a selection committee. I don't think "ranking" in the polls will be priority.



It may not be part of their criteria but if the major polls have us at #2 or #3 and the committee drops to #5 then they will need to offer an explanation. It is my contention that there will not be 2-3 teams that they can elevate past us with a straight face. In this day and age of ESPN, Twitter, etc....I think that it will be extremely important to the committee to "get it right". The last thing that they, along with the NCAA and member institutions, want is for this to be seen as a farce. Bias talks, but it's always money that walks the walk. The inaugural playoff being seen as a biased joke hurts everyone's bottom line.
 

81usaf92

TideFans Legend
Apr 26, 2008
35,306
31,375
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South Alabama
I agree completely. We need to get to Atlanta and win or we probably will not get in. The cry for conference champions to be included will be too much. Michigan St has an opportunity to beat Ohio State twice -- lets hope they lose one of those contest. We need Oregon to lose again too -- this probably will not happen.

Also lost the only SEC rep to the committee with Archie Manning removing himself today. Of course he would not have wanted Ole Miss to have to play Alabama a second time.
One problem... Michigan st is in the same division as Ohio st so in that scenario we are hoping either Wisconsin wins out or Nebraska picks up another loss and beats them in them in the championship
 

Bama1985

1st Team
Jan 18, 2006
794
126
62
61
Calhoun County
It's silly to talk about at this point, but it's a message board, so why not. If we win out, we go. Period. Anything else would immediately undermine the playoff before it even got off the ground.
No---Not if Ole Miss and FSU win out and Michigan State is a 1 loss conference champion and Oregon is a 1 loss conference champion. Bama will not get in. This playoff system was designed by the rest of the conferences so that they could be included. Bama needs to get to Atlanta and win.
 

GreatDanish

Hall of Fame
Nov 22, 2005
6,079
0
0
TN
Here's a summary of computer rankings: http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Alabama's mean rank: 4.10 (the fourth best mean rank right behind #3 Auburn's 4.08 mean rank). We are ranked anywhere from 1st through 14th. There is only one rating system out of 85 that ranks us worse than 8th.
Florida State's mean rank: 6.30. They are ranked anywhere from 1st through 28th. In 16 of the 85 rating systems (19% of them - about 1 in every 5), FSU is ranked 10th or worse.
 

bamachile

Hall of Fame
Jul 27, 2007
7,992
1
55
56
Oakdale, Louisiana
The system isn't designed to take the best four teams. It's designed to satisfy the four largest groups. At this point, we simply win every time and hope for the best. I don't like the system, but I'm not going to worry much over it, either.
 

Bama1985

1st Team
Jan 18, 2006
794
126
62
61
Calhoun County
One problem... Michigan st is in the same division as Ohio st so in that scenario we are hoping either Wisconsin wins out or Nebraska picks up another loss and beats them in them in the championship

Good point. Last year Ohio St and Michigan St played each other in the Big Ten Championship game this year they have realigned and put them in the same division. Will be an easier path for Michigan St
 

Bruce014

1st Team
Aug 29, 2012
752
82
52
Alabama
They will keep us out unless we win the SEC CG, or if we are the only 1-loss team of any significance. The latter is highly unlikely.
The committee will want some kind of "fairness", as defined by one team from SEC, one team from Big XII or Big 10, the Pac-12 and Fla State (and if they should lose, then ND will replace them).
 

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