2014 NCAA Playoff-Can they keep Alabama out now?

AgentAntiOrange said:

Not sure that could happen. There might some outrage if Alabama wins out and doesn't get in but it would only be because teams/fans would realize that it could happen to them. After that initial "huh?" moment, though, the rest of the CFB world would move on.

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If a 10-2 Big 10 champ Michigan State team wins the playoff by winning two close games, perhaps one on a questionable call, and Alabama is 12-1, was dropped 3 spots the week of the playoff seedings solely to be forced out of the playoff (and #2 in the AP poll going into the playoffs), and annihilated a very good 10-2 team with a very similar record to Michigan State, I think that would be likely to happen.

This is funny to me because three years ago 90% of the Tide fans here were mocking the AP poll as being useless and irrelevant because they feared LSU was going to win a split because of the regular season win. So now we're back to saying the AP poll matters? (No reflection upon you necessarily, but I watched that argument and now I'm like "Huh?")

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We all favor whatever favors us. If we didn't get in the playoff but finished #1 in the AP poll, you better believe we'll all be on here the next day saying, "The AP Poll got it right! The playoff system is so messed up!" If Auburn was #1 in the AP Poll but didn't make the playoff, we'd be saying, "Lol, barnie. That's not the system in place."

Rolltide_PA said:

I don't see any 1-loss non-conference winner unseating a conference champ be it Alabama, or otherwise

i'm certainly not saying a 1-loss SEC west team deserves to be jumped by 1-loss Big 12 or 1-loss Big 10, in particular, but it will happen IMO

then again i don't think we need a lot of help. If we win out and miss state beats ole miss we will be the west champs in a 3-way tie unless UcheaT and Gators totally implode down the stretch and/or Vandy catches fire

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What if the Big 12 team is one-loss Baylor that lost to a WVU team that we trounced? Go Bears!

Also, what happens if win out and MSU wins all their games other than against us? And then Ole Miss wins all their games other than against MSU creating a 3 way tie. Who would go to the SECCG?

First, let's put the SEC and SEC West's resume out there. This is highly pertinent because it explains why they deserve greater consideration. 27-1. I believe that's the SEC West's record against other teams, with the only loss coming from the last place SEC West team against the first place SEC East team. 7-3, that's the SEC's bowl record last year. After the Pac-12 (6-3) the Big 12 went 3-3, the ACC went 5-6, and the Big 10 went 2-5. Excluding the head to head matchup, the SEC is 8-1 in the BCSCG, and this includes victories from 3 different SEC West teams, mind you no other conference has won even 2! This combines to provide compelling evidence that the SEC West in particular is signifigantly ahead of all other conferences. The SEC West has earned the benefit of a doubt!

B1GTide said:

They and Alabama have very similar stories, IMO. Hard to tell their seasons apart if both end up 11-1.

ND's schedule includes Stanford, FSU (2), ASU (14), Louisville & USC (20).

Alabama's schedule includes WVU, Ole Miss (3), aTm, LSU (24), MSU (1) & Auburn (5).

IMO, your argument should not be against ND getting in ahead of Alabama - it should be against any other one loss team from any other conference getting in ahead of Alabama. Those are the schools with very suspect schedules and really bad losses.

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I added the AP rankings, which easily demonstrates the SoS gap (2, 14, 20, vs. 1, 3, 5?). My argument is not that Notre Dame wouldn't deserve to be in, but that they wouldn't deserve to get in over Alabama. According to Sagarin, Notre Dame is 1-1 against the top 30 with an SoS of 34. Alabama is 3-1 against the top 30 with an SoS of 9 and two top ten opponents upcoming. If you add the committee's criteria to the mix, it weighs even more heavily in Alabama's favor, due to key injuries against Ole Miss. All of this assuming they do just toss out the polls, which also favor Alabama. Notre Dame doesn't currently have a bad resume, they just don't have anything right now to argue they deserve to be ahead of Alabama.

TideEngineer08 said:

You, Krazy3, of all people, ought to understand all of this. Knowing what you've posted before on this subject, it's baffling to me that you've taken the stance you have in this thread.

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I suppose I consider more to be at risk other than just one championship. If they have completely abandoned the polls, even as a guide, if they have completely abandoned attempting to choose a legitimate top four, then all that history, all that tradition, what a championship means, will be go down the drain. I think the playoff is bad, I think the committee is bad, but I hope they still use a tiny bit of logic and follow their own rules, and if they do, Alabama is in if they win out. Mind you, last year I said Alabama was probably out, but this year Alabama's resume if they win out would be much better as would their SoS.

GreatDanish said:

I think what Krazy is saying is that if no one can even make an argument for why Notre Dame is more deserving, then the committee would be committing suicide by selecting them over Alabama. They still have a reputation to uphold if they want to continue.

I think the first rankings that come out will be telling. If Alabama is in the top 4 in this ranking, then the "win out and we're in" crowd will be effectively correct. Because if Alabama is #4 now and they win out, they should be, at worst, #3 at the end of the season and probably #2. If the committee then drops them to #5 just so they don't make the playoff, it would completely invalidate their own rankings from earlier in the year - which means all teams and all fanbases will consider the mid-season rankings meaningless. And that is the about the worst thing the playoff committee can do - convince the public their rankings are meaningless.

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I think you pretty much nailed my perspective. The committee doesn't have any credibility to lose. I will add though, that even if they put Alabama 5th, or may be 6th, the committee still might not be able to keep them out if they win out. Once they rank Miss. State and Auburn, they're establishing how good those teams are in their minds. That means they will have to highly value wins over those teams. So, they'll have a very hard time keeping Alabama from moving up in their rankings after a win over one of their top ranked teams.

I did my hand wringing when they decided to ditch the BCS. I like logic, the BCS had logic. I don't like the playoff and I don't like the committee. I would be fine with the idea of Alabama being on the outside looking in of the BCS, because they lost a game and Ole Miss and FSU haven't. But, I also know that they'd still be on the verge and if one trips up they'd get a second chance. But, the idea that they could be #3 and left out of a four team playoff? This nonsense, this smoke filled room nonsense, of course I hate it.

There is a lot of football left, and things will happen that no one expects. But , here is a scenario. It is in one of these posts already. Bama, Georgia, and OM wins out. Georgia beats OM.. Only way Bama goes is if you leave out the conference champ or the only team to go through the west unbeaten and beat Bama. Don't See Us going in that scenario.

CrimsonForce said:

I'm starting to warm up to the idea of an 8 team playoff with 5 conference champions and 3 at large teams. Just go to 10 game season with 8 conference games and 2 games against other power conference teams. The ambiguousness of the committee's selection criteria is unsettling..

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Somebody get him an ice pack!

bamaga said:

There is a lot of football left, and things will happen that no one expects. But , here is a scenario. It is in one of these posts already. Bama, Georgia, and OM wins out. Georgia beats OM.. Only way Bama goes is if you leave out the conference champ or the only team to go through the west unbeaten and beat Bama. Don't See Us going in that scenario.

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Well, as Selma and his uncanny memory can attest to, what we're debating is likely meaningless by the end of the season anyway. Heck, it might have adjusted by then to which 2 loss team gets in. Alabama winning out is a long shot, as are almost all the other scenarios.

But, yes, that is one of the nightmare scenarios that could pose a real threat. I say Alabama has a "clear path", but it could be disrupted by a few factors and that's one of them.

Chukker Veteran said:

Nearly fifty years later, the way Bama was treated in 1966 has left many older Bama fans skeptical of how "fair" any process will be that involves human opinion rather than results on the field in deciding who is number one...

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In down home language "We wuz robbed in 1966?" I didn't and don't like 1966's model of fairness!

If Alabama wins out and Oregon wins out and the other three teams have been determined, will the committee select Oregon over Alabama if there is already one SEC team in? If so, it sounds like 1966 thinking!

KrAzY3 said:

My argument is not that Notre Dame wouldn't deserve to be in, but that they wouldn't deserve to get in over Alabama.

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And I agree with that point, but it misses the bigger picture - that it isn't Notre Dame that would be knocking Alabama out - it is an even less deserving team from another conference. There are 5 teams that, if they win out, should gain automatic entry. They are - FSU, Alabama, ND, Ole Miss and Miss State. Only 4 of those teams can make it undefeated as Ole Miss and MSU play one another. Any of those teams that remains undefeated through the remainder of the season and is left out will have been victimized by the new system, IMO.

B1GTide said:

And I agree with that point, but it misses the bigger picture - that it isn't Notre Dame that would be knocking Alabama out - it is an even less deserving team from another conference. There are 5 teams that, if they win out, should gain automatic entry. They are - FSU, Alabama, ND, Ole Miss and Miss State. Only 4 of those teams can make it undefeated as Ole Miss and MSU play one another. Any of those teams that remains undefeated through the remainder of the season and is left out will have been victimized by the new system, IMO.

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What about Georgia?

GreatDanish said:

What about Georgia?

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And the Barn for that matter, as much as I hate to say it. With their schedule, losing to the potential SEC West champion at their place, beating the East champion, Ole Miss and Bama would be impressive. I miss the BCS, it was so much easier because you knew the formula and what you had to do. The playoff has only added more confusion.


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There are , of course, scenarios where Bama can win out and still miss the playoff. But I think those are highly unlikely. I tend to think that if we win out, all the other stuff will fall into place for us to get into the playoff.

B1GTide said:

And I agree with that point, but it misses the bigger picture - that it isn't Notre Dame that would be knocking Alabama out - it is an even less deserving team from another conference. There are 5 teams that, if they win out, should gain automatic entry. They are - FSU, Alabama, ND, Ole Miss and Miss State. Only 4 of those teams can make it undefeated as Ole Miss and MSU play one another. Any of those teams that remains undefeated through the remainder of the season and is left out will have been victimized by the new system, IMO.

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Only four of those teams can win out, as Miss. St. plays both Ole Miss and Bama. But replace Miss. St. with Oregon who IMO has the easiest "row to hoe". If a west coast team (with all those tv's) goes 12-1 and wins the Pac-12, they'll get in...count on it. If that last spot were to come down to ND or Bama (I don't think this scenario happens, this just an example for my point), who do you think they would chose? A team from the midwest, an area of the country with all those people and tv's but no representation in the final four, or a team from the deep south, an area with fewer people and tv's (but more avid cfb fans) that already has one team in? Krazy has made a case for why Bama should get in, but as a lot of Bama fans know (especially the older ones...myself included), what should happen and what does happen are not always the same. The committee, with both written and unwritten and subjective criteria can include or exclude teams as they see fit. I don't believe the committee would chose a two loss team over a one loss team for example, but in a tight decision for that last spot I'm afraid the interests of ESPN will take precedence...and that causes angst among a lot of Bama fans.

Of course our first objective is to beat the crap out of tenercee. RTR

This ESPN article makes me at least feel better.
One of the committee members saying that Conference Championships aren't really that important.
http://espn.go.com/college-football...e-gould-expects-top-four-teams-become-clearer

I honestly think we win out at this point. People want to say aTm isnt a good team, but noone points out that we were 45-0 at the half against them, and that is an accomplishment in its self because noone has blanked them like that. People also point out that our schedule is hard with MSU and Auburn left, but we will have tons of emotion and those games are at home. I think the most problematic games left are LSU on the road and MSU right after.

As far as the other teams left in contention

Oregon has the two best defenses in the PAC 12 left on their schedule (ORGST and Standford) and most likely USC in the championship in San Fransisco. Oregon may light up the scoreboard but a true freshman lighting up their defense at Autezen really shouldnt give anyone warm fuzzies about their chances if they are slowed down by teams that actually play defense

Big 12 teams (Baylor and KSU)- KSU still has to play WVU and baylor in which they can lose one if not both. Baylor has Oklahoma, Okie Lite, and KSU. they probably will lose atleast one.

ND is the real question. they have a formidable schedule with Louisville and USC left, but you never can explain the luck of the Irish they have with Brian Kelly. I think they lose one if not two but its like Auburn some of their wins defy logic.

1st and foremost we have to win out. Then to make it a moot point claw our way to Atlanta. Every SEC hater is putting a lot of emphasis on Georgia being the best team in the SEC, but they forget that UGA lost to a team that lost to UK,Mizzou, and aTm. If they want to downplay aTm then they will have to explain how they trounced USCe at home. they also have to explain how UGa lost to USCE who also lost to a team that lost to Indiana at home, and another that got beat by florida and dominated by LSU. The fact that the media even mentions UGA as a plausable threat to the SEC west without mentioning the fact that they lost to a mediocre at best USCe makes me get a good feeling that it will be the four best teams at the dance in January, but the fact that Cecil Hurt has stayed with his opinion also makes me extremely worried at the flip side of the equation also.

but bottom line is we need to take care of business here on out to even make good conversation at this point

I'm kind of surprised how pessimistic many of you are about our playoff chances IF we do win out to finish 11-1.

We are consensus #4 right now with games left against a ranked LSU team, Unanimous #1 MissSt and #5/#6 AU. Even IF we can't get into the SECCG there is NO rational excuse for leaving us out.

We are already the Top 1 loss team and by beating MSU Only FSU and Ole Miss could be ahead....so at worst we are #3 at the end.

We also bring huge ratings... People either watch to see us win or hate us so bad they watch to see us lose. If it's about the true Top 4 teams AND Money/Ratings they just can't leave us out. The controversy would be BAD for them from the media and especially ESPN guys who are strongly affiliated with the SEC now.

Oh and KState would have lost to AU who we presumably beat, Baylor's loss was bad to a team we beat, Oregon had a loss to Zona who has lost now.

Right now TCU and ND are wildcards but refresh my memory on who TCU lost to.... It was that embarrassment to Baylor right?

Im just not seeing how they could bump us out at unanimous poll #3 and probably higher than that in the comp/Sagarin.

81usaf92 said:

I honestly think we win out at this point. People want to say aTm isnt a good team, but noone points out that we were 45-0 at the half against them, and that is an accomplishment in its self because noone has blanked them like that. People also point out that our schedule is hard with MSU and Auburn left, but we will have tons of emotion and those games are at home. I think the most problematic games left are LSU on the road and MSU right after.

As far as the other teams left in contention

Oregon has the two best defenses in the PAC 12 left on their schedule (ORGST and Standford) and most likely USC in the championship in San Fransisco. Oregon may light up the scoreboard but a true freshman lighting up their defense at Autezen really shouldnt give anyone warm fuzzies about their chances if they are slowed down by teams that actually play defense

Big 12 teams (Baylor and KSU)- KSU still has to play WVU and baylor in which they can lose one if not both. Baylor has Oklahoma, Okie Lite, and KSU. they probably will lose atleast one.

ND is the real question. they have a formidable schedule with Louisville and USC left, but you never can explain the luck of the Irish they have with Brian Kelly. I think they lose one if not two but its like Auburn some of their wins defy logic.

1st and foremost we have to win out. Then to make it a moot point claw our way to Atlanta. Every SEC hater is putting a lot of emphasis on Georgia being the best team in the SEC, but they forget that UGA lost to a team that lost to UK,Mizzou, and aTm. If they want to downplay aTm then they will have to explain how they trounced USCe at home. they also have to explain how UGa lost to USCE who also lost to a team that lost to Indiana at home, and another that got beat by florida and dominated by LSU. The fact that the media even mentions UGA as a plausable threat to the SEC west without mentioning the fact that they lost to a mediocre at best USCe makes me get a good feeling that it will be the four best teams at the dance in January, but the fact that Cecil Hurt has stayed with his opinion also makes me extremely worried at the flip side of the equation also.

but bottom line is we need to take care of business here on out to even make good conversation at this point

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Yup. Good post.

tusks_n_raider said:

I'm kind of surprised how pessimistic many of you are about our playoff chances IF we do win out to finish 11-1.

We are consensus #4 right now with games left against a ranked LSU team, Unanimous #1 MissSt and #5/#6 AU. Even IF we can't get into the SECCG there is NO rational excuse for leaving us out.

We are already the Top 1 loss team and by beating MSU Only FSU and Ole Miss could be ahead....so at worst we are #3 at the end.

We also bring huge ratings... People either watch to see us win or hate us so bad they watch to see us lose. If it's about the true Top 4 teams AND Money/Ratings they just can't leave us out. The controversy would be BAD for them from the media and especially ESPN guys who are strongly affiliated with the SEC now.

Oh and KState would have lost to AU who we presumably beat, Baylor's loss was bad to a team we beat, Oregon had a loss to Zona who has lost now.

Right now TCU and ND are wildcards but refresh my memory on who TCU lost to.... It was that embarrassment to Baylor right?

Im just not seeing how they could bump us out at unanimous poll #3 and probably higher than that in the comp/Sagarin.

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I agree. I can't see how, IF, we win out, they can keep us out.
But we haven't "won out", so we have to focus week to week.
I understand your point though.

Putting aside all my thoughts on the committee and they should have used the BCS formula...Here is something to look for in the grand unveiling - If we are in the top 6 and Miss. St. and Auburn are ahead of us...Then we control our destiny by winning out. If not it is more screwed up than I ever imagined and that's saying a lot.

Yup..I'm afraid the play-off format was designed to screw over the SEC & the team they wanna stick it too the most is..Yup..Bama..I have a bad bad bad feeling we're not going to like how the end of the season shakes out if we don't end up winning the SEC outright..Cause as we all know & if the rest of college football is honest with itself..The 2nd & 3rd placed SEC Team, is a better, stronger, and more deserving team than most of the teams that wins other weaker Conferences Championships..

tusks_n_raider said:

I'm kind of surprised how pessimistic many of you are about our playoff chances IF we do win out to finish 11-1.

We are consensus #4 right now with games left against a ranked LSU team, Unanimous #1 MissSt and #5/#6 AU. Even IF we can't get into the SECCG there is NO rational excuse for leaving us out.

We are already the Top 1 loss team and by beating MSU Only FSU and Ole Miss could be ahead....so at worst we are #3 at the end.

We also bring huge ratings... People either watch to see us win or hate us so bad they watch to see us lose. If it's about the true Top 4 teams AND Money/Ratings they just can't leave us out. The controversy would be BAD for them from the media and especially ESPN guys who are strongly affiliated with the SEC now.

Oh and KState would have lost to AU who we presumably beat, Baylor's loss was bad to a team we beat, Oregon had a loss to Zona who has lost now.

Right now TCU and ND are wildcards but refresh my memory on who TCU lost to.... It was that embarrassment to Baylor right?

Im just not seeing how they could bump us out at unanimous poll #3 and probably higher than that in the comp/Sagarin.

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I expect Alabama to win out. However, we need Ole Miss to lose and Bama needs to get to Atlanta and beat Georgia. This playoff system favors conference champions--If Oregon and FSU win out they are in plus the SEC Champ. The last spot will be reserved for either a one loss Big 12 or one loss Big 10 Champion. Better be pulling for LSU this weekend. Also be pulling like crazy for Louisville on Thursday night 30 Oct. I am planning to be at the FSU vs Louisville game in person.