Alabama currently sits #4 in both major polls with #1 and #5/#6 still on the schedule. Provided Florida State, Alabama and Ole Miss win out, that will place us solidly at #3 with our only loss being to the undefeated #1/#2 team in the country. To keep us out they would have to drop us behind at least 2 teams. The contenders to pass us:
Oregon: Could be a 1 loss Conference winner but really only have 1 win to hang their hat on with not much left on the schedule and their 1 loss to Arizona doesn't really compare to our 1 loss.
ND: Like us, their 1 loss is to an undefeated, top ranked team. However, also like us, they won't play in a conference championship or be a conference champion. If they win out they could slide back in to contention but in doing so will hurt Oregon's SOS by beating both Arizona State (possible PAC12 South representative) and USC (another PAC12 South contender).
Michigan State: Lost handily to Oregon and doesn't really have much left on the schedule. It would be difficult for both Oregon and Michigan State to get in and if Oregon doesn't get in.....how can you put Michigan State ahead of them?
I believe that only ND has a realistic shot at passing us which would put as at #4 at the worst. I don't see Oregon or Michigan State passing us if we win out no matter what else happens.
The one team that could could cause us a real concern, IMHO, is Georgia. Let's say that UGA wins out, represents the East, and upsets Ole Miss. Then the AP top 5 might look like:
1.Florida State
2.Alabama
3.Georgia
4.Notre Dame
5.Ole Miss
6.Oregon
I could see the committee dropping us to 5 in this scenario. Outside of that, though, I feel like we control our own destiny.
Thoughts?
Oregon: Could be a 1 loss Conference winner but really only have 1 win to hang their hat on with not much left on the schedule and their 1 loss to Arizona doesn't really compare to our 1 loss.
ND: Like us, their 1 loss is to an undefeated, top ranked team. However, also like us, they won't play in a conference championship or be a conference champion. If they win out they could slide back in to contention but in doing so will hurt Oregon's SOS by beating both Arizona State (possible PAC12 South representative) and USC (another PAC12 South contender).
Michigan State: Lost handily to Oregon and doesn't really have much left on the schedule. It would be difficult for both Oregon and Michigan State to get in and if Oregon doesn't get in.....how can you put Michigan State ahead of them?
I believe that only ND has a realistic shot at passing us which would put as at #4 at the worst. I don't see Oregon or Michigan State passing us if we win out no matter what else happens.
The one team that could could cause us a real concern, IMHO, is Georgia. Let's say that UGA wins out, represents the East, and upsets Ole Miss. Then the AP top 5 might look like:
1.Florida State
2.Alabama
3.Georgia
4.Notre Dame
5.Ole Miss
6.Oregon
I could see the committee dropping us to 5 in this scenario. Outside of that, though, I feel like we control our own destiny.
Thoughts?