4Q Basket Case said:

Unfortunately, OM owns the tiebreaker on us. Even if we were to win out (and that's far from a sure thing) we need OM to lose twice, both losses being in the SEC, just to make it to Atlanta.

IF we win out -- a big if -- we'll definitely be one of the four best teams. But if OM doesn't lose twice, and barring an upset over OM in the SECCG by an SEC East team with 2+ losses, we'll be on the outside looking in.

Travesty though it would be, there's no way a one-loss Alabama team who isn't the SEC Champ gets in to the Final Four.

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we could get in with a 1 loss OM team and 1 loss MSU team - if we win out and MSU beats OM, then we would have a three way and the highest rated team would win the tie breaker.... since our lost would be the oldest, we would most likely be the highest rated of the 3 one loss teams..... it isn't over yet!!

BamaFanOnBeach said:

we could get in with a 1 loss OM team and 1 loss MSU team - if we win out and MSU beats OM, then we would have a three way and the highest rated team would win the tie breaker.... since our lost would be the oldest, we would most likely be the highest rated of the 3 one loss teams..... it isn't over yet!!

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Not sure how this became so widely-believed. Link

It would more than likely come down to rule G: Cumulative SEC record of cross-divisional opponents. Our cross-divisional opponents are currently 2-6 in the SEC (Florida 2-3, Tennessee 0-3). Mississippi State's opponents are 2-6 (Kentucky 2-2, Vanderbilt 0-4). Ole Miss' opponents are 0-7 (Vanderbilt 0-4, Tennessee 0-3).

If the season were to end today, Ole' Miss would be eliminated, bringing it to a two-way tie between us and Mississippi State, which we'd win by virtue of rule A: Head-to-head competition between the two tied teams. I will be pulling for Florida and against Kentucky and Vanderbilt for the rest of the season.

There's a lot of SEC fatigue and Bama fatigue. That could work against us. Just win baby!

mdb-tpet said:

I'd like to remind everyone that November always straightens out the playing field with respect to rankings and wins/losses. Every year a previously unbeatable juggernaut or two loses inexplicably to a lesser team in November. So, while it's good to discuss the 47 ways we will not get it, let November work it's magic on the pretenders, and if we only have one loss, we'll be one of the few 1 loss teams heading into the playoffs. If we keep beating teams up like Texas A&M, it could be a good thing, as it's possible we could be the only 1 loss SEC team after the SEC championship game without playing in it.

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I actually think this had been pretty much mentioned by almost everyone throughout this thread. We are simply pointing out and debating where OP's paradigm may have flaws.



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Yall gave done a good job dissecting this so far. And I believe it's perfect evidence why Archie Manning has removed himself from the committee while the getting is good. Whether you are looking at this from any conference point of view it's a train wreck in the making. At least with BCS you could hide behind the math dilute the effect of a single vote in a larger pool and your bias be relatively anonymous. You trade all those benefits for this? I know people are talking about it but it is quickly going to be for the wrong reasons. This has scandal written all over it. I am telling you this has the potential to be the most decisive thing to hit CF in a long long time. And those who talking about 1966 all over again are correct. While Bama might avoid getting 66'd this go around it might be another deserving team. And if you are fan of college football that ought to disturb you. This will undo all the progress made over the last 50 years...

Alasippi said:

This ESPN article makes me at least feel better.
One of the committee members saying that Conference Championships aren't really that important.
http://espn.go.com/college-football...e-gould-expects-top-four-teams-become-clearer

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I saw another quote, and I can't remember who it was, but they said conference champions would only be a "tie breaker". I do, however absolutely believe some committee members will argue on behalf of conference champions, but I get the feeling that is mainly a Big 10 and Pac 12 thing (they'll vote for each other if they can, they think the post season is intended solely for them anyway). That's bad though, but at the end of the day I just don't see them finding a way to actually justify it in this scenario and sanity should prevail.

Also, I'll point out that the Big 12 is not in a good position to get in, and that's one reason that people who are arguing for conference champions being included are hanging their hat on TCU. Auburn beat Kansas State, and Alabama beat West Virginia, who beat Baylor. The committee specifically stated they would compare common opponents, so a one loss Baylor getting in over Alabama is a hard sell. In either case, it looks like the SEC West owns the Big 12, with Kansas St. tops in the conference and WVU tied for second, there's not much of a case to be made for passing up a one loss SEC West team for any of those. If, however TCU runs through Kansas State and WVU, then people can discount those wins and that's what they're hoping for.

JDCrimson said:

Yall gave done a good job dissecting this so far. And I believe it's perfect evidence why Archie Manning has removed himself from the committee while the getting is good. Whether you are looking at this from any conference point of view it's a train wreck in the making.

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I have to admit, Archie leaving makes me nervous and you have to wonder under what circumstance he decided to make an exit. However, it also shines more light on the remaining committee members and if they choose to screw over the SEC after his exit, it will bring out a lot of theories that paint them in bad light.

I honestly think the bigger question is will the SEC have two teams in the 4 if we DO win out and win the SEC championship game. Obviously Ole Miss would have had to loose one to get us to the SEC game. Does the Egg Bowl winner get in too?

PacadermaTideUs said:

Not sure how this became so widely-believed. Link

It would more than likely come down to rule G: Cumulative SEC record of cross-divisional opponents. Our cross-divisional opponents are currently 2-6 in the SEC (Florida 2-3, Tennessee 0-3). Mississippi State's opponents are 2-6 (Kentucky 2-2, Vanderbilt 0-4). Ole Miss' opponents are 0-7 (Vanderbilt 0-4, Tennessee 0-3).

If the season were to end today, Ole' Miss would be eliminated, bringing it to a two-way tie between us and Mississippi State, which we'd win by virtue of rule A: Head-to-head competition between the two tied teams. I will be pulling for Florida and against Kentucky and Vanderbilt for the rest of the season.

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It looks like they changed (or added) rules 2.g and 2.h this year. It was decided by the highest ranked BCS team at one point very recently (maybe last year or year before last was last I looked it up). I guess with the BCS gone, they changed it up. I think it would be hilarious if it came down to a coin flip. Still looks like we would be in pretty good shape with a 3 way tie.

Alasippi said:

This ESPN article makes me at least feel better.
One of the committee members saying that Conference Championships aren't really that important.
http://espn.go.com/college-football...e-gould-expects-top-four-teams-become-clearer

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Very encouraging.

mittman said:

I honestly think the bigger question is will the SEC have two teams in the 4 if we DO win out and win the SEC championship game. Obviously Ole Miss would have had to loose one to get us to the SEC game. Does the Egg Bowl winner get in too?

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Correct me if I'm wrong everybody, but I think Ole Miss will have to lose 2.

Alasippi said:

I'll just say this. If the objective of the committee is anything less than to pick the best four teams in college football, regardless of conference status, or finishing position, it needs to cease to exist immediately.
That simple.
sip

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The BCS was about picking the best 'two' team in america....

...until two SEC teams got in...

IF the committee was about picking the best 4 team, no problem...but its not.

Its about making sure that doesnt happen again...conference championships counting, ambigueties in factors the committee use...keping members votes confidential...

its about allowing subjectvitiy into the process...providing a sifficient smokescreen to justify not having two teams from the same conference in.....
if not, then why arent we using the BCS model, and taking the top 4 teams from the polls????

thats my take...but, we'll see how it plays out.

we lost a game and allowed the discusion to take place...now we just have to focus on winning the rest and let the cards fall.

CrimsonEyeshade said:

Correct me if I'm wrong everybody, but I think Ole Miss will have to lose 2.

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You are correct.

CrimsonEyeshade said:

Correct me if I'm wrong everybody, but I think Ole Miss will have to lose 2.

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ALA2262 said:

You are correct.

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You are wrong. If Bama beats state, and state beats Ole Miss. One loss will work. If we own the tie breaker, at this point someone said we do. That could change though.

PacadermaTideUs said:

Not sure how this became so widely-believed. Link

It would more than likely come down to rule G: Cumulative SEC record of cross-divisional opponents. Our cross-divisional opponents are currently 2-6 in the SEC (Florida 2-3, Tennessee 0-3). Mississippi State's opponents are 2-6 (Kentucky 2-2, Vanderbilt 0-4). Ole Miss' opponents are 0-7 (Vanderbilt 0-4, Tennessee 0-3).

If the season were to end today, Ole' Miss would be eliminated, bringing it to a two-way tie between us and Mississippi State, which we'd win by virtue of rule A: Head-to-head competition between the two tied teams. I will be pulling for Florida and against Kentucky and Vanderbilt for the rest of the season.

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"If the season were to end today, Ole' Miss would be eliminated,"???????????????????????

Football - 2014 Standings

SEC - East

	CONF	OVERALL	HOME	ROAD	PF	PA	STRK
Georgia	4-1	6-1	4-0	2-1	304	140	W5
Missouri	2-1	5-2	2-2	3-0	215	150	W1
Kentucky	2-2	5-2	5-0	0-2	222	153	L1
Florida	2-3	3-3	2-2	1-1	172	153	L2
South Carolina	2-3	4-3	3-2	1-1	246	220	W1
Tennessee	0-3	3-4	3-1	0-3	171	149	L1
Vanderbilt	0-4	2-5	2-3	0-2	123	238	W1

SEC - West

	CONF	OVERALL	HOME	ROAD	PF	PA	STRK
Ole Miss	4-0	7-0	4-0	2-0	248	74	W7
Mississippi St	3-0	6-0	4-0	2-0	251	120	W6
Alabama	3-1	6-1	4-0	1-1	258	92	W2
Auburn	2-1	5-1	4-0	1-1	233	110	L1
LSU	2-2	6-2	4-1	1-1	285	136	W2
Texas A&M	2-3	5-3	2-1	2-2	307	217	L3
Arkansas	0-4	3-4	2-2	1-1	268	188	L3

bamaga said:

You are wrong. If Bama beats state, and state beats Ole Miss. One loss will work. If we own the tie breaker, at this point someone said we do. That could change though.

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They weren't discussing a 3 way tie. A 3,4,or 5 way tie, with only SEC West losses, with the barn would put them in the SECCG.

BamainBoston said:

I love all the assertions in this thread based on incomplete information, random, out of context statements, and assumptions about the state of mind of a dozen people two months from now.

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And, of course, if you disagree, you're obviously just plain stupid.

ALA2262 said:

"If the season were to end today, Ole' Miss would be eliminated,"???????????????????????

Football - 2014 Standings

SEC - East

	CONF	OVERALL	HOME	ROAD	PF	PA	STRK
Georgia	4-1	6-1	4-0	2-1	304	140	W5
Missouri	2-1	5-2	2-2	3-0	215	150	W1
Kentucky	2-2	5-2	5-0	0-2	222	153	L1
Florida	2-3	3-3	2-2	1-1	172	153	L2
South Carolina	2-3	4-3	3-2	1-1	246	220	W1
Tennessee	0-3	3-4	3-1	0-3	171	149	L1
Vanderbilt	0-4	2-5	2-3	0-2	123	238	W1

SEC - West

	CONF	OVERALL	HOME	ROAD	PF	PA	STRK
Ole Miss	4-0	7-0	4-0	2-0	248	74	W7
Mississippi St	3-0	6-0	4-0	2-0	251	120	W6
Alabama	3-1	6-1	4-0	1-1	258	92	W2
Auburn	2-1	5-1	4-0	1-1	233	110	L1
LSU	2-2	6-2	4-1	1-1	285	136	W2
Texas A&M	2-3	5-3	2-1	2-2	307	217	L3
Arkansas	0-4	3-4	2-2	1-1	268	188	L3

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Yes, because State and Ole Miss would be tied and State wins the tie breaker because their SEC East opponents have better overall records.(Or something like that)

Alasippi said:

Yes, because State and Ole Miss would be tied and State wins the tie breaker because their SEC East opponents have better overall records.(Or something like that)

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Actually, at this point, it wouldn't get to that level because Ole Miss' opponents from the West have a better record. But, by season's end, Ole Miss and MSU will have played the same opponents from the West, so then they will look at opponents' records in the East and MSU wins that.