2014 NCAA Playoff-Can they keep Alabama out now?

JustNeedMe81

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Sep 30, 2011
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We need Vandy to lose rest of the game this year.. and If there is three way ties, we go to championship, providing we beat miss state and Miss state beats Ole miss.
 

CrimsonForce

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Someone smarter than me answer this question. What happens if we win out but MSU beats OM? Meaning that we beat MSU, MSU beats OM, and OM beat Bama. Who would go in that three way tie??
 

Bama1985

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Not if we win out.

I don't care what OM does. If Bama wins out they will have beaten TWO top 5 teams including #1. No way would they be left out.
The deck is stacked against Bama if Ole Miss wins out. The committee will not leave a 1 loss conference champion out of the playoff for a 1 loss non-division winning team. Not going to happen. System was put in place to help the weak sister conferences. We need Ole Miss to lose.
 

BamaSC

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Oct 17, 1999
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Put me in the camp that thinks a 1-loss non-division winner is outside looking in behind any 1-loss Big 12/Pac 12 champion or. 1-loss ND. We may get ahead of a 1-loss Big 10 champion, but I wouldn't count on it.

Unless we get help, I don't think we get in.
 

Rolltide_PA

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Jul 31, 2011
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I don't see any 1-loss non-conference winner unseating a conference champ be it Alabama, or otherwise

i'm certainly not saying a 1-loss SEC west team deserves to be jumped by 1-loss Big 12 or 1-loss Big 10, in particular, but it will happen IMO

then again i don't think we need a lot of help. If we win out and miss state beats ole miss we will be the west champs in a 3-way tie unless UcheaT and Gators totally implode down the stretch and/or Vandy catches fire
 

Rolltide_PA

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Jul 31, 2011
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How does the 3 way tie affect us now??
1) likely only chance we have of a 3-way is with miss st and miss because we'd have won out and kicked the barn out of contention.

2) then a 3-way would be bama, ole miss, miss state and right now it would come down to SEC records of our non-division opponents (how i see it at least)

Bama 2-6 (fla, ten)
Miss St 2-6 (van, uk)
Ole Miss 0-7 (van, ten)

so if it all goes to plan then the big ones for Tide are for tenn to beat vandy and kentucky, kentucky to lose out (quite possible), and florida to beat vandy.

if that happens we're all set (unless i'm grossly misrepresenting the 3-way tb rules....)


 

Bama1985

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1) likely only chance we have of a 3-way is with miss st and miss because we'd have won out and kicked the barn out of contention.

2) then a 3-way would be bama, ole miss, miss state and right now it would come down to SEC records of our non-division opponents (how i see it at least)

Bama 2-6 (fla, ten)
Miss St 2-6 (van, uk)
Ole Miss 0-7 (van, ten)

so if it all goes to plan then the big ones for Tide are for tenn to beat vandy and kentucky, kentucky to lose out (quite possible), and florida to beat vandy.

if that happens we're all set (unless i'm grossly misrepresenting the 3-way tb rules....)


Good analysis. That win by Florida over Kentucky in Overtime could be big in Bama's favor if a 3 way tie occurs.
 

Go Bama

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A lot of this depends on how we win out. If we dismantle the Barn, the Vols, LSU, and M Tate I think the whole country will see Bama as the team to beat. The aTm game changed everyone's opinion of Bama from an also ran to possibly the best team in the country. Bama would have killed any team they faced last Saturday. If this continues, we're in regardless of what ND, OM, or Tate does.

OTOH, if we squeak by UTK this weekend, our fate is in the hands of other teams.

I'm not in agreement with others who think the system was put in place to help weak conference champions or to please the largest group. The system was put in place because a majority of the PTB thought it would be fun and profitable, IMHO. We'll know one way or the other when the team selections are finally made.
 

Rolltide_PA

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Jul 31, 2011
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honestly i think the only way a 1-loss non-conf sec champ gets into the playoff alongside the sec champ is if kansas state wins the big 12 unbeaten in conference but with their one loss a HOME loss against a sec team.

i just don't see how they would put kansas state ahead of miss st or ole miss (90% chance if bama or barn were in a 3-way tiebreak they win the west)

that being said if you have sec champ + florida state (two shoo-ins) then i think a 1-loss pac 12 champ is in (oregon) leaving just 1 spot between
1) big 10 champ (osu or msu) or
2) 1-loss sec west runner-up or
3) 1-loss notre dame or kansas state

hell of a lot of projection on my part but that's how i see it shaking out. in short, we need to win out and have miss st beat ole miss and we should have a final 4 spot in our own hands unless kentucky goes on an unlikely winning spree against some damn tough opponents
 

TideEngineer08

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I really feel like people should tamper their expectations. Certainly, we are still only halfway through the season. So much can happen the rest of the way. But I believe it is decidedly sure that we need to get to Atlanta and win in order to secure our spot in the top 4, or we need teams like Oregon, Notre Dame, and Michigan State/Ohio State to lose again if we have any hope of making it.

Florida State is in because they will not lose again. The SEC champion is in, barring some crazy scenario in which that team has 2 or more losses. And if two champions out of the Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac 12 only have one loss, they will make it.

People keep talking about the committee wanting to make this process above board, or without reproach. That is exactly why the committee was put in place - to take things behind closed doors, in order to steer the process towards the intended result of fairness.

I really think Slive was bamboozled in all of this. Hopefully, I'm overreacting and will be proven wrong.
 

mittman

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Jun 19, 2009
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honestly i think the only way a 1-loss non-conf sec champ gets into the playoff alongside the sec champ is if kansas state wins the big 12 unbeaten in conference but with their one loss a HOME loss against a sec team.

i just don't see how they would put kansas state ahead of miss st or ole miss (90% chance if bama or barn were in a 3-way tiebreak they win the west)

that being said if you have sec champ + florida state (two shoo-ins) then i think a 1-loss pac 12 champ is in (oregon) leaving just 1 spot between
1) big 10 champ (osu or msu) or
2) 1-loss sec west runner-up or
3) 1-loss notre dame or kansas state

hell of a lot of projection on my part but that's how i see it shaking out. in short, we need to win out and have miss st beat ole miss and we should have a final 4 spot in our own hands unless kentucky goes on an unlikely winning spree against some damn tough opponents
I was about to post something along these lines. If Ole Miss/ Mississippi State wins out and Florida State wins out you have two undefeated conference champions taking two spots. I can't see any way those two are not guaranteed.

If West Virginia or Kansas State wins the Big 12 that helps us greatly, but still does not guarantee it. You lose one of the big 4 conference champions because both of them have losses to SEC West teams. So now we are down to competition between one losses. A PAC a BIG and possibly ND. Who knows what will be in the minds of the voters, but fact will be fact. The SEC team you are leaving out may have beat a big 4 conference champion. With at least two other probable conference champions having losses to SEC teams (AAC with Eastern Carolina and Mountain West with Boise State) we may have an argument they can't overcome.

October 28 we will get a taste. If they are brave enough to put a one loss SEC team into the top 6 mix then, they may have a problem reversing.

Cecil is right as usual. We have a LONG way to go before then. Lots of things can happen. Only thing our team can do is win and better yet dominate.
 
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Go Bama

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I really feel like people should tamper their expectations. Certainly, we are still only halfway through the season. So much can happen the rest of the way. But I believe it is decidedly sure that we need to get to Atlanta and win in order to secure our spot in the top 4, or we need teams like Oregon, Notre Dame, and Michigan State/Ohio State to lose again if we have any hope of making it.

Florida State is in because they will not lose again. The SEC champion is in, barring some crazy scenario in which that team has 2 or more losses. And if two champions out of the Big Ten, Big 12, and Pac 12 only have one loss, they will make it.

People keep talking about the committee wanting to make this process above board, or without reproach. That is exactly why the committee was put in place - to take things behind closed doors, in order to steer the process towards the intended result of fairness.


I really think Slive was bamboozled in all of this. Hopefully, I'm overreacting and will be proven wrong.
You may be right, but why make the assumption that the committee was put in place to take things behind closed doors? I hope you're wrong; I bet you do too.

Also, I don't know what it means to "tamper their expectations". I do think the only way the SEC gets two teams in the playoff is if one of them is the SEC champ and the other is a one loss Bama.
 

TideEngineer08

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You may be right, but why make the assumption that the committee was put in place to take things behind closed doors? I hope you're wrong; I bet you do too.

Also, I don't know what it means to "tamper their expectations". I do think the only way the SEC gets two teams in the playoff is if one of them is the SEC champ and the other is a one loss Bama.
I make that assumption because that is exactly how the process will work. They'll go to a hotel somewhere, deliberate for a couple of hours and release their top 4. There may be a press conference, but you're not going to know whether or not it's honest. It won't be difficult at all for them to justify their results, and if a 1-loss SEC team like Alabama is left out, only Alabama fans are ticked off. The rest of the country, especially outside of SEC territory, will be thrilled.

By "tamper expectations", I just think folks expecting us to make it in automatically if we win out are going to be disappointed. But I do hope I'm wrong.
 

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