BCS Top 10 - Week 8

TexasBama · Oct 21, 2014

So I went through this exercise I guess because I could. Since the Harris Poll is defunct, I substituted the AP Poll. A little tedious eliminating the hi/lo on the computers.

BCS Avg.
1 Mississippi State 0.9724
2 Ole Miss 0.9465
3 Florida State 0.9395
4 Auburn 0.8371
5 Alabama 0.8358
6 Oregon 0.7641
7 Notre Dame 0.7320
8 Georgia 0.7101
9 Michigan State 0.7009
10 TCU 0.6446

Auburn gets 4th because we are close in poll points, and they come out better on the computers (especially with the hi/lo elimination)

bama119 · Oct 21, 2014

Thanks, I have wondering how the old BCS would look like.

uafan4life · Oct 21, 2014

TexasBama said:
So I went through this exercise I guess because I could. Since the Harris Poll is defunct, I substituted the AP Poll. A little tedious eliminating the hi/lo on the computers.

BCS Avg.
1 Mississippi State 0.9724
2 Ole Miss 0.9465
3 Florida State 0.9395
4 Auburn 0.8371
5 Alabama 0.8358
6 Oregon 0.7641
7 Notre Dame 0.7320
8 Georgia 0.7101
9 Michigan State 0.7009
10 TCU 0.6446

Auburn gets 4th because we are close in poll points, and they come out better on the computers (especially with the hi/lo elimination)

I used to have an excel spreadsheet that calculated the BCS ranking from the raw data, without having to calculate it manually. I'll see if I can dig it up.

EDIT:
Here's the excel formula you would use to calculate a team's computer average (excluding the highest and lowest values), if the team's six computer rankings were in cells A1 through F1:
=(104-(SUM(A1:F1)-SMALL(A1:F1,1)-LARGE(A1:F1,1)))/100

TexasBama · Oct 21, 2014

uafan4life said:
I used to have an excel spreadsheet that calculated the BCS ranking from the raw data, without having to calculate it manually. I'll see if I can dig it up.

EDIT:
Here's the excel formula you would use to calculate a team's computer average (excluding the highest and lowest values), if the team's six computer rankings were in cells A1 through F1:
=(SUM(A1:F1)-SMALL(A1:F1,1)-LARGE(A1:F1,1))/100

Thanks. I will plug that in.

I'm particularly interested in how the BCS vs. committee looks around week 12.

uafan4life · Oct 21, 2014

TexasBama said:
Thanks. I will plug that in.

I'm particularly interested in how the BCS vs. committee looks around week 12.

Make sure you note the change - I had left part of it out.

PacadermaTideUs · Oct 21, 2014

You going to keep this updated during the year? I was thinking of setting up a spreadsheet as well, but have been too busy.

Also, what are you using in place of Massey BCS and Sagarin Elo. As for Massey, I don't believe he is still generating his BCS version of his ranking. Same for Sagarin - I don't think Elo-Score is the same ranking system as Elo-Chess, the one submitted to the BCS. In truth, Massey's and Sagarin's non-BCS systems are probably more accurate than the BCS systems, as the BCS buffoons were never too statistically inclined and made too many inane demands on computer rankers that ended up decreasing their efficacy.

TexasBama · Oct 22, 2014

PacadermaTideUs said:
You going to keep this updated during the year? I was thinking of setting up a spreadsheet as well, but have been too busy.

Also, what are you using in place of Massey BCS and Sagarin Elo. As for Massey, I don't believe he is still generating his BCS version of his ranking. Same for Sagarin - I don't think Elo-Score is the same ranking system as Elo-Chess, the one submitted to the BCS. In truth, Massey's and Sagarin's non-BCS systems are probably more accurate than the BCS systems, as the BCS buffoons were never too statistically inclined and made too many inane demands on computer rankers that ended up decreasing their efficacy.

Massey still has a rating, and Sagarin shows an ELO. If the same? Idk

PacadermaTideUs · Oct 22, 2014

TexasBama said:
Massey still has a rating, and Sagarin shows an ELO. If the same? Idk

Massey does still have a rating, but I'm pretty sure it's not the version that the BCS used. From his FAQ, which was published prior to the ouster of the BCS:

Give me a layman's description of your rating system:

First, to avoid confusion, be aware that I publish two different sets of rankings:

the "Massey Ratings", which utilize actual game scores and margins in a diminishing returns fashion

the BCS compliant version, which do not use the actual score

Explain how your system uses margin of victory (MOV)
The BCS compliant version does not use MOV at all. There is no distinction between a 21-20 nailbiter, and a 63-0 blowout.The main version does consider scoring margin, but its effect is diminished as the game becomes a blowout.

Why do you have a BCS-compliant version of the ratings?

At the request of the BCS, I develped the BCS ratings that use only the bare minimum of data: winner and location.

I believe Massey quit producing his BCS compliant version when the BCS dissolved. What you're seeing is his preferred (and likely superior) version. Same with Sagarin. He still publishes an "ELO-SCORE" version, which is different from the "ELO-CHESS" version he published to be BCS compliant. Neither Massey or Sagarin published their BCS versions prior to the BCS demanding that included computer ratings not rely in any way on margins of victory. Since final scores implicitly contain MOVs, final scores had to be eliminated from BCS computer ratings systems. So Massey and Sag came up with their "BCS-compliant" versions. Now that BCS is gone, both have ditched those versions (but like I said before, it's probably a good thing, since a 59-0 victory is clearly stronger than a 21-20 victory).

In any case, even though I don't think we can exactly replicate the BCS anymore since we no longer have the Harris, Massey BCS or Sagarin ELO-CHESS, I think what you're doing is probably as close as we can get.

PacadermaTideUs · Oct 22, 2014

In the off-chance that you don't already have these links, I think you might enjoy them:

Ranking Comparison

Comparison of the Five Remaining BCS Input Ratings (Coaches Poll, Colley, Billingsley, Anderson, and Wolfe - missing Harris, Massey and Sag, as discussed above)

TexasBama · Oct 22, 2014

PacadermaTideUs said:
In the off-chance that you don't already have these links, I think you might enjoy them:

Ranking Comparison

Comparison of the Five Remaining BCS Input Ratings (Coaches Poll, Colley, Billingsley, Anderson, and Wolfe - missing Harris, Massey and Sag, as discussed above)

Thanks. Looks handy for recreating the rankings.

I will be interested in next week when the committee publishes their ranking and how it compares.

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