Scenarios for the SEC to get two teams in four team playoff.

theballguy

Hall of Fame
Nov 5, 2012
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Sorry. Hate to break it to you. Even if Bama wins out and we don't win the SEC, only conference champions are in unless 2-3 conference champions have 2 or more losses. Then if ND has one loss, they get in ahead of us even in that scenario. I still believe that if we win out, we get into the SEC Championship Game. Otherwise, it ain't happening. Not being negative, you guys seem to forget this committee is designed to keep us out. Besides, SelmaBornTideFan already pointed out, there's too much football to play and most of it is of the eliminating type. How 'bout we talk about the next game or two and quit this crap?
 

BamaSully

1st Team
Oct 13, 1999
605
106
162
Jackson, TN
The anticipation is palpable! We are about to find out Tuesday, once and for all, if college football will be about inclusion or if it will be about excellence.

If Bama is #4 in the initial rankings like they are in the polls (highest one-loss team), and then if we win out but do not win the West (Ole Miss), I will be hard-pressed to believe that committee, with all the scrutiny they know they are going to get, will be willing to suddenly move us DOWN out of the top 4 after beating MSU and Auburn!

And they know that too. They certainly are not stupid people! So its all about where they start us out this Tuesday. If we are lower in the rankings behind Michigan State, Oregon, KSU, because those guys are leading their illustrious conferences, then you know its all going to be about inclusion of conference champs rather than rewarding excellence.

Either way, the precedent will be set Tuesday and it will be hard to change it once it is set.
 

BamaSully

1st Team
Oct 13, 1999
605
106
162
Jackson, TN
I guess I failed to address the thread topic....getting 2 teams in.

Well if Bama or Auburn is #4 in the initial ranking, then all we (or they) have to do is win out and we will likely have 2 teams in.

If the initial rankings have the other conference leaders ahead of Bama and Auburn, then it will be clear the committee wants to avoid having 2 SEC teams.
 

uafan4life

Hall of Fame
Mar 30, 2001
15,608
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There's really only one scenario where it's likely the SEC would get two teams into the playoff:
Alabama, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State end up in a three-way tie for first place in the SEC West with Bama convincingly beating Mississippi State (though perhaps not a blow-out), Ole Miss losing a nail-biter to Mississippi State to close out the season, and Bama winning the SEC Championship Game.

If this were to happen, we are all but assured of representing the West in Atlanta due to the new tie-breaker rules which would almost certainly eliminate Ole Miss first, giving us the berth due to our head-to-head result over Mississippi State.

It would be extremely difficult for the committee to leave out an SEC Champion, 12-1 Alabama team - especially since several of the members have openly promoted the idea that Conference Championships are very important. At the same time, you'd have an 11-1 Ole Miss team sitting out there that actually beat Alabama on the field. Assuming that FSU goes undefeated, you could end up with a scenario like this for the committee to consider:

Playoff Spots:
1. FSU
2. Bama
3. ???
4. ???

In serious contention for the last two spots:
12-1 Oregon, PAC 12 Champions
12-1 Michigan State, B1G Champions
11-1 Ole Miss
11-1 Mississippi State

Mentioned but not really in serious contention:
10-2 Kansas State, Baylor, TCU, or West Virginia Big 12 Champion
10-2 Notre Dame

I think, in this scenario, Oregon is pretty much a shoe-in for the third spot. The fourth spot, though, gets tricky.

1. I don't think anyone in the Big 12 is going to escape without a second loss, the way the schedules stack up, and you've got a good shot at a three-way tie there as well.
2. Notre Dame's second loss, which I think comes against Arizona State, puts them out of contention since they'll have lost half of the only real games on their schedule.
3. Michigan State would seem like a good choice but they've already been beaten by one team either in the playoff or at least in contention for a spot. Plus, they play in the B1G which makes their 12-1 record the least impressive one-loss resume.
4. Mississippi State, fresh off a win over then #1 or #2 Ole Miss, boasts a pretty good resume but has already lost convincingly to an Alabama team assured of making the playoff.
5. Ole Miss had the misfortune of losing their last game of the regular season which might drop them out of contention, however, that loss was a nail-biter to their in-state rival and they do have a win over a team assured of making the playoff.
6. Only four teams either assured of getting or in serious contention for a playoff spot will have beaten another team either assured of getting or in serious contention for a playoff spot:
- Alabama, over Mississippi State
- Oregon, over Michigan State
- Ole Miss, over Alabama
- Mississippi State, over Ole Miss
... and of those wins, the Ole Miss victory over Alabama is clearly the best win.
7. Of the four teams in serious contention for the last two spots, their losses ranked from "best" loss to "worst" loss are probably:
- Michigan State to Oregon
- Ole Miss to Mississippi State
- Mississippi State to Alabama
- Oregon to Arizona
...and you could make a good argument for swapping those first two as well as, perhaps, swapping the last two since injuries played a not-insignificant part in Oregon's loss.
8. Given that Mississippi State's best win isn't the best of the four and that their loss to Alabama clearly isn't the best loss, it's hard to see them getting in over Ole Miss - whose best win and loss are both clearly better than Bulldog's - even though they did beat them.
9. There could be some sentiment within the committee to avoid a "but we beat Bama" versus "but we beat Ole Miss" argument between Ole Miss and Mississippi State supporters, respectively, by leaving both out in favor of another, Conference Champion team. This would, obviously, give an advantage to Michigan State.

So, you really end up with the committee's choice being between:
A) Putting in a second SEC team, Ole Miss, which is likely the most deserving team with the best resume among those in contention or
B) Putting in a Conference Champion, Michigan State, which has already lost to another team in the playoff and has the weakest resume among those in contention.

Either choice presents the opportunity for a rematch, so that potential "tie-breaker" goes out the window. It would all come down to whether or not the committee wants to put an obviously weaker team into the playoff over a second SEC team, thereby setting a precedent that a Conference Championship is worth more than another team's overall resume.

If they were to do that, it would potentially hurt the SEC's chances of winning the National Championship this year as well as its chances of getting two teams into the playoff in any given year but would most likely help the SEC's chances of winning the National Championship in any given year even more; in any given year we are more likely to end up with a two-loss SEC Champion than with two (or more) teams under serious contention for a playoff spot.
 

russtang

All-American
Apr 11, 2007
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Still too much that can and will happen to think about all the possibilities for me to cramp my brain right now.

Right now I am most interested in the first "poll" of the committee and how it differs from the current AP and coaches polls. That will say a lot in how the committee is leaning.
 

GreatDanish

Hall of Fame
Nov 22, 2005
6,079
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TN
Right now I am most interested in the first "poll" of the committee and how it differs from the current AP and coaches polls. That will say a lot in how the committee is leaning.
Agreed.

Of course, if "conference championships" are necessary to be in the Top 4, there's no way for that to be reflected in the in-season rankings since no conference champions have been named. But, if we are #4 now, that should at least set us up to have an argument come selection Sunday (or whatever day it is).
 

GrayTide

Hall of Fame
Nov 15, 2005
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The only team, IMO, that is automatically in is Notre Dame with 1 loss to the then #2 ranked team in the country. Between now and then SECC game the SEC will destroy itself as we all predicted and only the winner will get in. FSU will win out and be the third team in. The 4th team will be the higher ranked B1G champ or PAC 12 champ. A 1 loss SEC team and the Big XII champ will not be playing in the final 4.
 

KrAzY3

Hall of Fame
Jan 18, 2006
10,615
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kraizy.art
I've figured out how to keep two SEC teams out of the playoff. Put 13 Tidefans posters on the committee.

I'm not even sure if I should put that in blue or not. I see so many posters arguing passionately, with no counterpoint, to why other teams are going to get into the playoff. If I wanted to leave Alabama out, I could just copy and paste stuff people posted here and read it out loud during the committee meeting.

If a lot of you are arguing that the committee is screwed up, you're doing it backwards.
 

nx4bama

All-SEC
Apr 8, 2010
1,141
1
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NW Alabama
I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility. I do believe the committee will do everything reasonably sane to prevent two SEC teams from getting into the playoff. That said, I sort of see this going one of two ways. The committee is either going to keep things pretty close to the final AP poll and "ease" us into this new era of football where a 9-3 team with a conference championship will eventually be more revered than 11-1 team with a "good loss," OR they will come out of the gates making waves. In which case, you could expect ONLY conference champions with no regard for the polls. Either way, I think it inevitably becomes a conference-champions-only (exception, ND) playoff at some point down the road. JMO

*the above post should not be misconstrued as support for a champions-only playoff. Rather, it is the direction the author believes things to be headed keeping in mind that the push for a committee began after the all-SEC championship game.
 

russtang

All-American
Apr 11, 2007
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I've figured out how to keep two SEC teams out of the playoff. Put 13 Tidefans posters on the committee.

I'm not even sure if I should put that in blue or not. I see so many posters arguing passionately, with no counterpoint, to why other teams are going to get into the playoff. If I wanted to leave Alabama out, I could just copy and paste stuff people posted here and read it out loud during the committee meeting.

If a lot of you are arguing that the committee is screwed up, you're doing it backwards.
I don't think anybody is arguing that Alabama should be left out. They are predicting the argument the committee may/will use to keep Alabama out.

Again IMO, it's simply too soon to get worked up about it since hundreds of scenarios are possible.
 

mulletover

All-SEC
Dec 1, 2009
1,593
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Cullman Alabama
*the above post should not be misconstrued as support for a champions-only playoff. Rather, it is the direction the author believes things to be headed keeping in mind that the push for a committee began after the all-SEC championship game.
If the playoff consist of Conference Champions only why do we need a Playoff Committee?
 

GreatDanish

Hall of Fame
Nov 22, 2005
6,079
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TN
I don't think anybody is arguing that Alabama should be left out. They are predicting the argument the committee may/will use to keep Alabama out.
I don't really mean to respond to you as much as people who just believe the system is out to get Alabama.

The media favoringus in 2011 is what has led to this. Oklahoma State was #2 in the computers at the end of 2011 - it was the polls that got us into the championship game.

The media put us at #1 or #2 in preseason polls, even though we replaced our multi-national championship winning QB and lost half of our defense that wasn't even from our best defense in recent years.

Before bowls, the coaches voted us at #2 over Oklahoma State. Even taking out SEC Coaches, we were still the #2 team in the coaches' poll. I think all Pac-12 coaches who voted in the poll voted us at #2.

For a system that hated the 2011 outcome so much, it really seems like it was the system that actually created the issue in 2011. The computers had Oklahoma State as the #2 team. It was the media and coaches that disagreed.
 
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nx4bama

All-SEC
Apr 8, 2010
1,141
1
57
NW Alabama
If the playoff consist of Conference Champions only why do we need a Playoff Committee?
Maybe the committee's sole purpose is to affect change. There was no way those who wanted change were going to convince the AP and Coaches voters that their perceptions were wrong. What better way to make a change than to set up a system where only 13 people needed to be swayed? Just an opinion, though.
 
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CrimsonChuck

Hall of Fame
Nov 15, 1999
5,639
4
0
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Philadelphia, PA
If we win out, I really only see one scenario where we wouldn't go. That is, regardless of whether Ole Miss wins out or not. Having victories over Auburn and MSU will be pretty darn impressive. And a victory over LSU in Death Valley wouldn't be to shabby either.

My one concern would be if Georgia beats Auburn. Ole Miss wins out and goes to SECCG. Georgia beats Ole Miss in the SECCG in a close, well played contest. If the committee was to take two SEC teams, who would they take? You gotta figure it would be Ole Miss and Georgia.
 

bamacon

Hall of Fame
Apr 11, 2008
17,179
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College Football's Mecca, Tuscaloosa
To give the perception of integrity.
Which they will completely LOSE in the very first year if they select ANY Big 10 team over a 1 loss SEC team. Everyone and their brother knows what a joke that league is compared to the SEC. If there are any 1 loss SEC teams left they will be selected over Mich. St. or tOSU. Both of them have losses and the Buckeyes one is too big of a stain to remove from their resume. The SOS is dismal for the Big 10. I'll wait and judge the committee own their actions but until I have something to base it own I'll take their word. They "say" they are going to select the 4 best teams. IF they do that then at the end of the season I think it will be much clearer as to who those teams are. Until they prove me wrong, which I concede they absolutely may, I'll take it that they will simply pick the 4 best teams.
 

JustNeedMe81

Hall of Fame
Sep 30, 2011
14,905
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Not exactly true. If Ole miss loses to MSU, and MSU loses to alabama, Alabama goes. Ole miss has to win out to order to go to SEC. One loss, and Bama or MSU could win Head to head because of their opponent win/losses
The one I have been thinking about is OM loses once and Bama wins out. OM goes to the SEC championship game since they have the tiebreaker over us and Bama would be ranked #1 or #2 and OM at #3, #4 or #5. We are insured a spot in the playoff yet OM must beat GA to get to the playoff. That would flip some people on their heads.
 

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