Upset Specials: week 9

I'm still having a hard time with the two MS schools ranked #s 1 &2. Regardless, I can't see LSU upsetting Ole Miss.
Last year, Ole Miss beating LSU would have been an upset. Next year, it might be as well. This year though, LSU over Ole Miss just ain't gonna happen..

washington over arizona state the only upset i see in top 25

maybe wazzou over arizona as well

i don't see bama, barn, ole miss, or miss st losing...but all could be close at HT

Bama Reb said:

I'm still having a hard time with the two MS schools ranked #s 1 &2.

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It's sign of the end times...

bamacon said:

I'll post the slate of games in a bit.

I'm going LSU over Ole Miss. I believe it is a matter of when concerning an OM loss. Believe it or not but this isn't a good matchup for the Rebs. If the Tigers can get any running going it will be a long night in Death Valley.

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Ole Miss stats are not that impressive -- compared to other top ten teams. Ole Miss got lucky (fumbles, fumbles, fumbles) and that is the reason they are so highly rated. I won't predict an LSU win but it would not surprise me one bit.

I tend to think the LSU over Ole Miss predictions are just wishful thinking. Ole Miss has a VERY good defense. Also I keep thinking about how Miss State and AU just demolished LSU.

WVU over Oklahoma State. IB4 WVU becomes the favorite. Line opened with OSU -4.5, and is now at -1.

Bama Reb said:

I'm still having a hard time with the two MS schools ranked #s 1 &2. Regardless, I can't see LSU upsetting Ole Miss.
Last year, Ole Miss beating LSU would have been an upset. Next year, it might be as well. This year though, LSU over Ole Miss just ain't gonna happen..

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It's all going to depend on LSU's offense.

LSU might not be a Top 5 team right now but they do seem to be on an upswing. And they've got plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball plus a pretty good Defensive Coordinator, as well. At night, in Death Valley, I can easily see the Tigers holding the Rebels to less than 21 points.

Of course, if Ole Miss only scores 17 or 20 points but their defense holds the Tigers to only 10 or 13 points then they still walk out with a win.

One thing the Tigers have going for them is their running game. While this might, at first, seem to be an Ole Miss advantage - which it might actually be - it may not be an Ole Miss advantage, or at least not as much of one as you might think.

Ole Miss is currently #2 in the conference in rushing defense, giving up 97.14 yards per game and 2.87 yards per carry (also good for #2 in the SEC).
LSU is currently #6 in the conference in rushing offense, gaining 220.88 yards per game and 4.60 yards per carry (good for #9 in the SEC).

However, if you only look at results against FBS teams with winning records (which, incidentally, removes the absurdly bad rushing performances by Memphis and the Vols against the Rebels but also the Rebels worst rushing differential performance against Vandy) then you end up with this comparison:

Against FBS teams with winning records, Ole Miss is currently #5 in the conference in rushing defense, giving up 137.50 yards per game and 3.59 yards per carry (also good for #5 in the SEC).
Against FBS teams with winning records, LSU is currently #6 in the conference in rushing offense, gaining 164.00 yards per game and 3.86 yards per carry (good for #9 in the SEC).

Under those circumstances, both teams' respective offensive and defensive rushing units look rather pedestrian.


As for the differential comparisons, on the year Ole Miss is holding their FBS opponents to 73.70 yards per game and 1.63 yards per rush below their opponents' season averages while LSU is gaining 45.04 yards per game and 0.34 yards per rush above their opponents' season averages. Against FBS teams with winning records, on the year Ole Miss is holding their opponents to 61.55 yards per game and 1.55 yards per rush below their opponents' season averages while LSU is gaining 31.29 yards per game and 0.16 yards per rush above their opponents' season averages.

So, using the differentials and giving equal weight to the two teams' overall season averages, season averages against FBS opponents with winning records, and each respective unit's differentials the statistical projection looks like this:

LSU Range: 40-44 Rushes, 130-154 Yards, 3.24-3.50 Average
LSU Prediction: 42 Rushes, 142 Yards, 3.38 Average


If LSU can actually get 140+ yards rushing - especially if they are able to break 150 - then that gives the Tigers a very good shot at pulling the upset. Yes, I know that LSU got plastered by the Barn and gave up 27 to Florida but, first of all, both of those were road games; LSU has been a different team at home. Also, the LSU offense is starting to actually look competent with Jennings at QB. Finally, that Florida score is a bit misleading - from an LSU defensive standpoint - since over half of Florida's point are basically the result of two big punt returns by Debose, one for a TD and the other setting up a 1st and Goal for the Gators.


I would have liked this game more had it been the LSU of this week playing the Ole Miss of last week this past Saturday - as Ole Miss was primed for an upset but Tennessee didn't have the horses to pull it off.


However, I'm still leaning toward the upset - LSU 20, Ole Miss 17.

I'd really rather Ole Miss demolish LSU and destroy their confidence, or what's left of it. A 59-0 beatdown would be preferable. Leave them questioning their manhood. Then, let Auburn and Mississippi State derail Ole Miss.

We've already faced the Rebels, and are yet to face LSU. And I've never bought into the desire that we "face a team at full strength so they won't have any excuses when we beat them." Frankly, I'm ok if a team is reduced to playing their 4th string walk-on QB. Nobody cared when it was us a decade ago.

For LSU to win a few things will need to happen.....They will have to run the ball well enough to keep their qb out of obvious passing situations....which leads me to my next point. LSU will have to get a few plays from the qb position. While both of their qbs are young they are both talented. So if they can make plays they can keep the Rebs D honest. If they can't you can forget about my first point. LSU will need a few turnovers I think as well. If they can keep it close that will keep the crowd in it which can lead to the potential of one of those crazy Death Valley nights......I think the game will go one of two ways:either LSU wins a close one or the Rebs win in a blow out. I don't see no in between.

uafan4life said:

It's all going to depend on LSU's offense.

LSU might not be a Top 5 team right now but they do seem to be on an upswing. And they've got plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball plus a pretty good Defensive Coordinator, as well. At night, in Death Valley, I can easily see the Tigers holding the Rebels to less than 21 points.

Of course, if Ole Miss only scores 17 or 20 points but their defense holds the Tigers to only 10 or 13 points then they still walk out with a win.

One thing the Tigers have going for them is their running game. While this might, at first, seem to be an Ole Miss advantage - which it might actually be - it may not be an Ole Miss advantage, or at least not as much of one as you might think.

Ole Miss is currently #2 in the conference in rushing defense, giving up 97.14 yards per game and 2.87 yards per carry (also good for #2 in the SEC).
LSU is currently #6 in the conference in rushing offense, gaining 220.88 yards per game and 4.60 yards per carry (good for #9 in the SEC).

However, if you only look at results against FBS teams with winning records (which, incidentally, removes the absurdly bad rushing performances by Memphis and the Vols against the Rebels but also the Rebels worst rushing differential performance against Vandy) then you end up with this comparison:

Against FBS teams with winning records, Ole Miss is currently #5 in the conference in rushing defense, giving up 137.50 yards per game and 3.59 yards per carry (also good for #5 in the SEC).
Against FBS teams with winning records, LSU is currently #6 in the conference in rushing offense, gaining 164.00 yards per game and 3.86 yards per carry (good for #9 in the SEC).

Under those circumstances, both teams' respective offensive and defensive rushing units look rather pedestrian.


As for the differential comparisons, on the year Ole Miss is holding their FBS opponents to 73.70 yards per game and 1.63 yards per rush below their opponents' season averages while LSU is gaining 45.04 yards per game and 0.34 yards per rush above their opponents' season averages. Against FBS teams with winning records, on the year Ole Miss is holding their opponents to 61.55 yards per game and 1.55 yards per rush below their opponents' season averages while LSU is gaining 31.29 yards per game and 0.16 yards per rush above their opponents' season averages.

So, using the differentials and giving equal weight to the two teams' overall season averages, season averages against FBS opponents with winning records, and each respective unit's differentials the statistical projection looks like this:

LSU Range: 40-44 Rushes, 130-154 Yards, 3.24-3.50 Average
LSU Prediction: 42 Rushes, 142 Yards, 3.38 Average


If LSU can actually get 140+ yards rushing - especially if they are able to break 150 - then that gives the Tigers a very good shot at pulling the upset. Yes, I know that LSU got plastered by the Barn and gave up 27 to Florida but, first of all, both of those were road games; LSU has been a different team at home. Also, the LSU offense is starting to actually look competent with Jennings at QB. Finally, that Florida score is a bit misleading - from an LSU defensive standpoint - since over half of Florida's point are basically the result of two big punt returns by Debose, one for a TD and the other setting up a 1st and Goal for the Gators.


I would have liked this game more had it been the LSU of this week playing the Ole Miss of last week this past Saturday - as Ole Miss was primed for an upset but Tennessee didn't have the horses to pull it off.


However, I'm still leaning toward the upset - LSU 20, Ole Miss 17.

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WOW, I'm not so sure. Ole Miss is playing good ball. LSU not so much, I hope you are right though.

Bama Reb said:

I'm still having a hard time with the two MS schools ranked #s 1 &2. Regardless, I can't see LSU upsetting Ole Miss.
Last year, Ole Miss beating LSU would have been an upset. Next year, it might be as well. This year though, LSU over Ole Miss just ain't gonna happen..

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What poll has the two Mississippi schools 1 & 2? Are you talking about the SEC West rankings?

LSU over Ole Miss- LSU is due for a win. I can tell this team will figure out Ole Miss.
Texas Tech over TCU- TT is going through a lot, so lot of emotions riding this week.
OKST over WV- close game.
SC over Auburn- For some reason, Spurrier always figure things out at the wrong time... but dude is real good, so I would expect him to pull upset one or two twice a year.
Kentucky over Miss state- Unlikely, but I think Kentucky will have a chance to show us how good they are. This would be the biggest upset of the week.

Remember what team is at the beginning of the season, isn't what they are now, but will be different team at the end of season. Anything can happen. I don't think I've ever seen SEC teams playing well on Thursday nights... Auburn did struggle against Kansas state.

bamacon said:

Wishful thinking was predicting UT to go into Oxford at night and upset the Rebs

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I've got to get pretty far down the board to find an upset possibility. I think WVU/OKie Lite should be a pick em, so not really an upset either way. The over in that game should be about 1000.

I will probably pull for the Whos to beat the Ackbars, but I wouldn't predict it straight up and would not bet and take the points, so I honestly must not really believe it.

Just a rough weekend for finding an upset.

There are not a lot of games that jump out at me. A lot of them will seem like they'll be beauty contests going into the first committee rankings. I suppose I'll start with saying I'm not so sure even if LSU could beat Ole Miss, that would be a good thing. Some members would take that as justification for ranking Notre Dame (at least) ahead of Alabama and to me the only thing that can keep them out is being severely under-ranked from the start.

A few that might be interesting would be Washington State vs. Arizona. Washington State can't seem to beat anyone, but they're playing everyone close. Arizona has been barely winning most of their games, so it seems like a couple big plays could change that outcome.

Utah and USC seems a bit like a toss up, if Utah loses, that should knock them out of contention.

One game to watch would be Penn State and Ohio State, this might have the biggest implications. Penn State became the team people were hanging their hats on (briefly) but they haven't looked good at all the past two games. On the other hand Ohio State has looked quite a bit better than that terrible Virginia Tech game, and this game could set them up for a decent committee ranking unfortunately. I can't really cheer for Penn State anyway.

So, I'm not sure there are any upsets I want to pick this week, any of the ones that seem likely might hinder Alabama's chances.