Excellent post, of course nobody on here will believe your rationale until we are left out in favor of a one loss conference champion. Then the screaming will begin.
Based on the posts, I'd say most people here believe that rational.
I've also said, several times, that I think Alabama can get pushed down a seed. The thing is, Alabama is #3 in the polls, and they play a team ranked ahead of them. So, we're talking #2. The committee, as of right now, assuming Alabama wins out, has to move them down not one, not two, but three spots hypothetically to keep them out! They'd have to go from 2, to 5. That's just not easy to do. I hate the committee, but managing that will take something masterful.
So, for the current scenario of Big 10+Pac 12+SEC champ jumping Alabama to play out, requires quite a bit beyond merely those teams winning out. Of course it's possible, if they are corrupt to the core, but if there is any logic, and rational, if they follow their rules, I don't see how they could pull that one off. Either they severely under rank Alabama from the start, or they won't be able to move them out of it if they win out. They can't get away with saying #2 Alabama one week, then Alabama doesn't play and they say #5 Alabama, not without utterly destroying their credibility in a fashion the BCS never managed.
I absolutely am hanging my hat on the first committee rankings, I think we'll know what they are from the start. Either they're colluding against Alabama or they're not. If Alabama is in their top four, we know they're not pulling any shenanigans. If they somehow justify putting Alabama six or lower, we know something is up.