Conference Champions are a criteria that will come into play if all teams are sitting at one loss. There is no way around it; Conference Champions are playing an extra high quality game.
The specific quote I heard was
tie breaker. So, what about the Big 12? They don't play a championship game, so I guess we can set them aside. Notre Dame doesn't play a conference championship either nor can they be champions. That now means we are talking about 4 conference champs. Let's just give FSU an undefeated season, that leaves 3 conference champs. It's entirely possible that there are no one loss conference champs, but we are assuming that the SEC, Pac 12, and Big 10 all have viable candidates.
Let's look at the AP poll.
#5 Oregon. Their SoS is 34 and they have a signature win with Michigan State. They have a legitimate chance of getting in, but the SoS gap is in no way going to be made up by a conference championship game. They are basically the best shot other conferences have though and I think have the best shot after SEC teams.
#8 Michigan State. At this point their signature game is a loss. Their SoS is a dreadful 63 (committee criteria). Promoting them all the way to four, without a lot of losses in front of them would involve flaunting of the publicly announced committee criteria.
#7 Ole Miss/#9 Georgia. Ole Miss has a 7 SoS, and Georgia has a 22 SoS. There's no question if either of those teams win out, they'll have the best resume of the 1 loss conference champions.
The main problem the committee has is positioning. It's not simply wanting to move Alabama down, it's how they position those other teams. If the first poll comes out, and Georgia, Michigan State, Notre Dame, and Oregon are all ahead of Alabama, then we have cause for concern, because of obvious bias. But, if they don't do that, as I've said, they're stuck.
The argument is that the committee might sit on their hands and then vote a straight ballot for conference champions. They won't be able to justify that, not to the other members of the committee, and not to the public. Let's take Michigan State for example, already a soft schedule, they have may be two more ranked teams upcoming and that's counting their championship game. So, the idea is that those two ranked teams will somehow form a more compelling argument than beating 1/4/17, which sounds like a date but is actually the AP ranking of upcoming Alabama opponents.
If you just ignore Alabama's resume, which the committee might do in their first ranking, you can come up with something that says Alabama doesn't deserve in. But, right now Alabama has an SoS of 3. They also have, by far, tougher upcoming opponents than any other non-SEC team, and this includes conference championship games. So, you're saying there really might be a scenario in which everyone in the room says who did you have ranked #3 last week? "Alabama". Who played the toughest schedule? "Alabama". Who had players hurt in their loss? "Alabama" Who beat the most ranked teams? "Alabama". Ok, but the other team won their conference championship game, so let's ignore all of that. If they're that bad, they won't bother ranking Alabama high at all, they'll make their job easier and screw them over starting at week one.
Good. That rules Notre Dame out.
Perhaps the most annoying thing in all of this is the argument that both Notre Dame and conference champs automatically get in. What some people might not be aware of, is that along with a tepid alliance with the Big 12, the SEC allied with Notre Dame in the discussions to resist conference championship requirements. Notre Dame is a partial member of the ACC and they lost to FSU. They might go to a playoff, but only if the committee considers something other than conference champions.
For the vast majority on here who think we will win out, why all the angst? If we win out and OM loses to either auburn, Arky or MSU we are in Atlanta. If you truly believe we beat LSU, MSU and auburn then there is nothing to worry about.
I don't think Alabama wins out, I never did. The deck is stacked against them, too many factors can cause them to lose a game (injuries, turnovers, officiating, etc...), and their margin for error is very low.
Personally, my angst is simply with the committee and the many people who for one reason or another argue that the committee's only job is to pick conference champions. That's wrong on so many levels and if it does occur, it will be a perversion of the post season. I honestly want to see a one loss non-SEC champ Alabama team because I want to see them make their mind up now. If they're going to ruin college football, let's get it over with and let it be known from the start. Make them decide it now, if they get to decide down the road, once most fans have become playoff zombies, it's much more likely they get away with it.