BCS Top 10 - Week 9

TexasBama · Oct 27, 2014

I crunched the numbers again and came up with this (BCS average):

Mississippi St 0.992
Florida St 0.951
Alabama 0.867
Auburn 0.866
Oregon 0.788
Mississippi 0.766
Notre Dame 0.733
Michigan St 0.711
Georgia 0.705
Kansas St 0.634

Will be interesting to compare against the Final Four tomorrow night. Personally, I think they'll have MSU, FSU, Oregon, and Michigan St or Notre Dame

Edit: Computer Rankings Average only

Mississippi St 1.00
Auburn 0.93
Florida St 0.91
Mississippi 0.88
Alabama 0.87
Oregon 0.78
Georgia 0.71
Notre Dame 0.67
Kansas St 0.65
Michigan St 0.59
TCU 0.34
Baylor 0.19

ALA2262 · Oct 27, 2014

Best thing to happen to Bama would be for them to be out of the mix at this time. They would do some serious butt kicking in their remaining games.

CrimsonForce · Oct 27, 2014

TexasBama said:
I crunched the numbers again and came up with this:

Mississippi St 0.992
Florida St 0.951
Alabama 0.867
Auburn 0.866
Oregon 0.788
Mississippi 0.766
Notre Dame 0.733
Michigan St 0.711
Georgia 0.705
Kansas St 0.634

Will be interesting to compare against the Final Four tomorrow night. Personally, I think they'll have MSU, FSU, Oregon, and Michigan St or Notre Dame

Is the formula that the BCS used?

TexasBama · Oct 27, 2014

CrimsonForce said:
Is the formula that the BCS used?

Not exactly. The BCS used the Harris Poll, which is defunct. I substituted the AP poll (which used to be a component of the formula).

Also, two of the computer rankings, Sagarin and I think Massey, are not doing the exact same computation as before. Still, its more than in the ballpark.

PacadermaTideUs · Oct 28, 2014

TexasBama said:
I crunched the numbers again and came up with this (BCS average):

Mississippi St 0.992
Florida St 0.951
Alabama 0.867
Auburn 0.866
Oregon 0.788
Mississippi 0.766
Notre Dame 0.733
Michigan St 0.711
Georgia 0.705
Kansas St 0.634

Will be interesting to compare against the Final Four tomorrow night. Personally, I think they'll have MSU, FSU, Oregon, and Michigan St or Notre Dame

Edit: Computer Rankings Average only

(1) Mississippi St 1.00
(2) Auburn 0.93
(3) Florida St 0.91
(4) Mississippi 0.88
(5) Alabama 0.87
(6) Oregon 0.78
(7) Georgia 0.71
(8) Notre Dame 0.67
(9) Kansas St 0.65
(10) Michigan St 0.59
(11) TCU 0.34
(12) Baylor 0.19

Hmm... Computer rankings not too far off at all from what the selection committee thinks. The committee is a bit more impressed with TCU and Michigan St, and a bit less impressed with Georgia and ND, but all-in-all, pretty darn close. In fact, I'd say the computer rankings are closer to the committee's than either the AP, the Coaches, or the BCS.

Committee:

(1) Mississippi St (+/- 0)
(2) Florida St (+1)
(3) Auburn (-1)
(4) Mississippi (+/-0)
(5) Oregon (+1)
(6) Alabama (-1)
(7) TCU (+4)
(8) Michigan St (+2)
(9) Kansas St (+/-0)
(10) Notre Dame (-2)
(11) Georgia (-4)
(12) Arizona

TexasBama · Oct 28, 2014

It would be interesting to go through the 6 computer rankings and see which one matches most closely. Will look at when I get on a laptop.

TexasBama · Oct 29, 2014

PacadermaTideUs said:
Hmm... Computer rankings not too far off at all from what the selection committee thinks. The committee is a bit more impressed with TCU and Michigan St, and a bit less impressed with Georgia and ND, but all-in-all, pretty darn close. In fact, I'd say the computer rankings are closer to the committee's than either the AP, the Coaches, or the BCS.

Committee:

(1) Mississippi St (+/- 0)
(2) Florida St (+1)
(3) Auburn (-1)
(4) Mississippi (+/-0)
(5) Oregon (+1)
(6) Alabama (-1)
(7) TCU (+4)
(8) Michigan St (+2)
(9) Kansas St (+/-0)
(10) Notre Dame (-2)
(11) Georgia (-4)
(12) Arizona

None of the individual computers come any closer than the composite. In the committee top 25, all the PAC teams are ranked at or higher than their corresponding Coaches Poll ranking. It looks like the committee boosts the Big Ten and Big 12 leaders also. How egalitarian.

KrAzY3 · Oct 29, 2014

Thank for doing this. Despite my not having the same amount of hand wringing as some posters, I'd still much, much prefer the BCS do the selecting.

Then again, I'd much prefer is just be two teams as well. All Alabama would need to do is win, and without even an SEC championship, they would have played in the BCSCG. Much easier path than an extra playoff game.

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