CFP Poll is out (week 3 @ post 208)

REBELZED

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Re: CFB top ten on Tuesday

Next 4:
5. Alabama
6. TCU (wouldn't be surprised if TCU leaped Bama for beating a team by 1 point that Bama beat by 10 points)
This is one I keep seeing and I totally don't understand it. Both teams' best win is against WVU. We beat WVU by 10 points and controlled the game. After trailing most of their game, TCU kicked a last second FG to win by 1 after WVU turned the ball over a million times.

Our WVU win was better. Loss to Ole Miss > loss to Oklahoma. What logic would anyone use to have TCU jump us?
 

Matt0424

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Re: CFB top ten on Tuesday

This is one I keep seeing and I totally don't understand it. Both teams' best win is against WVU. We beat WVU by 10 points and controlled the game. After trailing most of their game, TCU kicked a last second FG to win by 1 after WVU turned the ball over a million times.

Our WVU win was better. Loss to Ole Miss > loss to Oklahoma. What logic would anyone use to have TCU jump us?
hey beat Oklahoma, and their only loss is to top 10 Baylor by 3. A win over WVU at this point in the season, as compared to in the opener, probably looks better on paper too. (I don't necessarily agree, but it is what it is.)
 
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PacadermaTideUs

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Re: CFB top ten on Tuesday

This is one I keep seeing and I totally don't understand it. Both teams' best win is against WVU. We beat WVU by 10 points and controlled the game. After trailing most of their game, TCU kicked a last second FG to win by 1 after WVU turned the ball over a million times.

Our WVU win was better. Loss to Ole Miss > loss to Oklahoma. What logic would anyone use to have TCU jump us?
No - TCU's best win is against last week's #18 Oklahoma, who is likely to move up after another win yesterday. And the simple fact is, though TCU snuck by against WVU yesterday, they got a win against a team that is already Bama's best win, while Bama sat out. I wouldn't be surprised if the committee moves them up this week. But I also wouldn't be surprised if the committee moves us back up (even past Oregon) next week if/when we beat LSU.
 

bamaga

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Re: CFB top ten on Tuesday

Yet we've allowed a Coaches poll to be weighted in the championship formula for years, yet NONE of them watch games aside from their own and their upcoming opponent? Just because Jeff Long didn't catch all of ONE game doesn't mean he isn't informed on what goes on. Most of the committee have tapes shipped to them, and they watch on Sunday/Monday.

Like I said, I'm not saying your argument is wrong...I just don't factor it in to my perception of the committee in the least. Now if one of them said something like "i don't really watch" or "I ONLY watch Team X" then I might be worried.

Obviously Jeff long didn't watch on Sunday/Monday. 75% of the comittee were never coaches , 25% never played the game. With only 12 members there is a greater probability that an uninformed person would get it wrong, or more importantly being swayed by someone they think is informed. They have to watch the games. Not every second, but 90% of every game . That is their job, no excuse. Otherwise, why bother? At those point I would Rather have the 58 coaches than this 12 member comittee.
 

rgw

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Re: CFB top ten on Tuesday

the 58 coaches are not going to watch enough games to have an informed opinion.
 

bamacon

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Re: CFB top ten on Tuesday

Bazza, I for one will be pulling for the Gators to give FSU what they deserve. The sooner they lose, the better as far as I'm concerned.

And that game is going to be a WHOLE helluva lot tougher than most "experts" think. Confidence is the NUMBER 1, 2, and 3 stopping UF from being a much better team than they have showed. I think they have that now and will likely be a very tough out for the remaining teams on their schedule.
 

BamaSully

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Re: CFB top ten on Tuesday

To the original poster...

I agree FSU will likely take back over the #1 spot, although I think the gap between 1 and 2 will be razor thin. That one could go either way, but, at the end of the day, it doesn't matter because MSU's remaining schedule is light-years tougher so if they win out they will be a unanimous #1 when it counts (12/7/14).

Note: MSU won't win out. They will lose to Alabama!

I also agree that one or two other one-loss teams that were behind us might end up in front of us this week. To those of you in this thread who have already expressed great displeasure with the thought of getting "jumped" or the thought of being "punished" for being idle Saturday, please bear two things in mind.

#1 - If the committee members are doing it right, then you will see some things that are noticeably different from the AP and coaches polls. You can't apply the old logic we all grew so accustomed to; that certain losses should drop you a certain number of spots, or that certain wins should cause you to gain a certain number of spots, or that the timing of your loss is a factor in some way, etc. What you should see is that they take each new week as a brand new set of data and start over from scratch (which is what AP voters and coaches poll voters also should do and always should have done). If the human polls had always operated like that there would have been more faith in the old systems we have had in the past and we might be using them now instead of a committee. In other words, each week you have to throw out how good you thought a team was last week and take a fresh look at the entire body of work. So a team cannot expect to be ranked in the same spot simply because they were idle (talking about us). If that is the case then there is a bigger issue with the system. Rather what should happen is they should look at our full body of work and compare it to Oregon's and TCUs, etc and simply decide who has the best resume right now. I am comfortable with some movement other than "everyone just slide up together" like they always did, because that means they are at least trying to do their job!

#2 - Most importantly - It doesn't matter where we are ranked now. With Ole Miss having 2 losses, all we have to do is win out and we are in by virtue of winning the SEC, not to mention having a tremendous schedule strength. If we win at LSU, we would have a good chance of "jumping" over some other 1-loss teams because that is another good win. Then if we beat MSU, we would almost certainly be the highest ranked 1-loss team, which means we would probably be #2 right behind FSU. So it simply doesn't matter right now!

As far as where you had Ole Miss with 2 losses, that I have to disagree with. They will be lower. They will be right in there with 2-loss Oklahoma and 2-loss LSU.
 
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81usaf92

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Re: CFB top ten on Tuesday

This is one I keep seeing and I totally don't understand it. Both teams' best win is against WVU. We beat WVU by 10 points and controlled the game. After trailing most of their game, TCU kicked a last second FG to win by 1 after WVU turned the ball over a million times.

Our WVU win was better. Loss to Ole Miss > loss to Oklahoma. What logic would anyone use to have TCU jump us?
we will have no wins against a top 25 team with WVU losing, and TCU's loss to baylor is now better than our loss to Ole Miss. We are probably the 6th best team again this week, but we now control our destiny for sure so it really doesnt matter who is in front of us if we win out.
 

theballguy

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Re: CFB top ten on Tuesday

Based on resumes only:

1. Miss State (35)
2. FSU (33)
3. TCU (33)
4. Oregon (29)
5. Auburn (28)
6. Kansas State (26)
7. Alabama (25)
8. Ole Miss (25)
9. Michigan State (25)
10. Baylor (24)

In my pickings, weight was given to these things:

wins
+1 win
+1 road win
+2 power conference .500 =+ in conference team
+1 power conference < .500 in conference
+1 ranked 25-16
+2 ranked 6-15
+3 ranked 1-5
+1 win by 9-20 points
+2 win by 21+ points


losses
-1 home loss
-3 if loss to a team not in power conference
-2 power conference < .500 in conference
-1 power conference .500 or +
-3 loss to unranked team
-2 loss to ranked 25-16
-1 loss to ranked 6-15
0 loss to ranked 1-5
-2 loss by 21+ points
-1 loss by 9-20 points

We win out and none of it matters though.
 
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B1GTide

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Re: CFB top ten on Tuesday

we will have no wins against a top 25 team with WVU losing, and TCU's loss to baylor is now better than our loss to Ole Miss. We are probably the 6th best team again this week, but we now control our destiny for sure so it really doesnt matter who is in front of us if we win out.
That is only true if comparing best wins. Alabama has a much more impressive overall resume than TCU.
 

81usaf92

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Re: CFB top ten on Tuesday

That is only true if comparing best wins. Alabama has a much more impressive overall resume than TCU.
yeah but TCU has beaten Oklahoma who is in the top 25 and lost close to baylor who probably will be higher in the committee ranking than ole miss. The eye test doesnt go as far as many think. while i pretty much feel alabama would wipe the floor with TCU, it doesnt matter when you compare beating currently ranked 18 Oklahoma to currently unranked West Virgina, and beating west virgina in Atlanta in August compared to morgantown in October. I think the only thing to go in Bama's favor this week was Ole Miss losing. Because getting into those 4 slots might not be clear cut for 1 loss teams sitting on the outside looking in on championship weekend. Now the rankings dont matter to alabama winning out.
 

theballguy

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Re: CFB top ten on Tuesday

That is only true if comparing best wins. Alabama has a much more impressive overall resume than TCU.
No way. I hate to disagree but TCU's resume is far more impressive than Bama's at this point. But that will change beginning next Saturday. Or at least has the potential to change if we win out.
 

cuda.1973

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Re: CFB top ten on Tuesday

TCU's loss is enough to preclude them from any serious discussion. Regardless of how impressive their resume may look.
 

81usaf92

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Re: CFB top ten on Tuesday

TCU's loss is enough to preclude them from any serious discussion. Regardless of how impressive their resume may look.
Ok what about Oregon who lost to Arizona at home. Do I think TCU is a top 4 team... no, but if you compare their resume with ours they win and we lose if the season ends today and them and us are fighting for the 4th spot. They beat a ranked Oklahoma and lost closely to a probable top 10 baylor in a shootout; we beat a probable out of the top 25 wv team in atlanta, and lost to an ole miss team that has shown its true colors against LSU. TCU will most likely be number 5 tommorow and we will most likely will be number 6. does it really reflect how good each of us is? No, but its the price you pay when you throw out computers,randomized coaches poll, and the harris poll to select the best teams; in favor of a 13* person committee. but it shouldnt really matter to alabama fans because we control our destiny, but i think people shouldnt get in a computer rage if TCU is ranked ahead of us tommorow. If Im wrong then its still the same goal: win or stay home
 

bamaga

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Re: CFB top ten on Tuesday

Baylor is a 3.5 point underdog at 2 loss OU. Maybe we should use Vegas, a computer and AP poll to select final 4
 

tattooguy21

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Re: CFB top ten on Tuesday

TCU's loss is enough to preclude them from any serious discussion. Regardless of how impressive their resume may look.
disagree. the loss was to a ranked team, and the lead that they gave up, while ridiculous, still happens to teams. wasn't alabama beating auburn a few years ago handily till mr. newton got his groove on? while Bama will look more impressive as the season goes on (given that they win) currently they don't have much to show.
 

theballguy

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Re: CFB top ten on Tuesday

Our schedule is back-loaded. Which honestly, I prefer. Would rather destroy teams later than do it early and barely finish. No matter how we do polls, what-have-you-don-lately will always be given just a bit more latitude. And if it doesn't kill you (with injuries), it may give you a great opportunity to start the playoffs HOT. Don't take the resume polls personally. It's just a measure of things so-far and is in no way a prediction of who will win out. Who the heck has a crystal ball anyways?
 

bamafaninOhiO

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Re: CFB top ten on Tuesday

If we win LSU at the latest time they play in death valley, then two possibly top 3 teams, and finally the secc....the argument could be made that we'd be in first


Regarding people saying we'll be fifth, I don't understand the reasoning, other than it being hopeful
I dont see TCU jumping all the way to 5th, since we beat a like opponent in WVU. I believe we'll move up to 5th, TCU 6th, and Ole miss drops behind some of the other 1 loss teams behind us.

It dosent matter except fur fun, because we control our destiny...again. we win out, we're in...if we dont win out, it really doesnt matter.
 

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