Predictions for 11-4 Elections

Bamaro · Nov 5, 2014

If you predict percentages like Nate Silver usually does, statistically speaking you cant be wrong unless the % is zero or 100.

GreatDanish · Nov 5, 2014

BamainBoston said:
My prediction was more accurate. Just saying.

A lot of people have been more accurate than Nate Silver. No one has been more accurate than him (A) regularly, (B) publicly, and (C) specifically.

GreatDanish · Nov 5, 2014

CajunCrimson said:
If he gotten correctly Kansas and North Carolina -- (which would have both been Dem wins....) then the Republicans would have only picked up 5 -- so where were his other 3?

Louisiana, Alaska -- and where?

Well, he had Kansas as an independent win, not Democrat.

He had Iowa, Colorado, Alaska, Louisiana, Arkansas, West Virginia, South Dakota, and Montana as Republican pick ups.

Gr8hope · Nov 5, 2014

The results were better than I had hoped and as Saban says, take a minute to celebrate and then get back to work.
Ok Republicans, undo this mess or go home!

Jon · Nov 5, 2014

Displaced Bama Fan said:
Agreed it should be addressed at a national level. I find it interesting that Big Agriculture/Dow are fighting it tooth and nail. It's also interesting that many European countries are banning GMO foods as are China (chuckle) and Japan. Jesus, GMO foods have a built in pesticide, no one in their right mind can tell me that poisoning my body with that crap is good.

want to hear something funny? That built in pesticide, Bacillus thruringiens, is by itself consider a safe organic pesticide by the FDA. Consequently organic farmers use it like water. So if you steer clear of GM foods and only eat organic you are far more likely to be ingesting this particular pesticide. Remember that next time you bite into an organic vegetable

selmaborntidefan · Nov 5, 2014

GreatDanish said:
A lot of people have been more accurate than Nate Silver. No one has been more accurate than him (A) regularly, (B) publicly, and (C) specifically.

None of that is true. He's just been smart enough to market himself. Okay, so I guess that would make B true.

And btw - when you get secret polls others don't get - as happened in 2012 - then you ought to be more accurate. Silver's entire reputation is based off of ONE election when he got extra info. Voter dot com was once "a great predictor" when they got 1992 correct.....then they had Bush winning by nine points in 2000 and vanished. John Zogby got a big rep off of 1996 because he had Dole much closer to Clinton than anyone and got it right.

CajunCrimson · Nov 5, 2014

GreatDanish said:
Well, he had Kansas as an independent win, not Democrat.

He had Iowa, Colorado, Alaska, Louisiana, Arkansas, West Virginia, South Dakota, and Montana as Republican pick ups.

If he predicted the Republicans to lose Kansas -- then it would have been a net +7 -- but I guess the GOP would have picked up 8, but lost one (kansas) if I understand what you typed.....so he predicted a Net +7

If the GOP wins Louisiana (which they should), it will be a +9 ---- and if the recount helps Gillespie -- then it would be a net +10 --

So, a Net +7 guess was actually not that accurate.....Sean Hannity said +8 --- so Silver did worse than Hannity -

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Predictions for 11-4 Elections

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Gr8hope

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