Who SEC fans should root against: Week 11-sds

SEC ROOTING GUIDE

In which we tell you which teams you should root against in the upcoming week.
Before the season, this weekend featured two marquee games without hesitation. A remake of last year’s Big Ten championship is nice, but most people suspected Baylor at Oklahoma would become option 1A, if it didn’t boot everyone else off the podium. Instead, the Sooners are out of the picture and the Bears don’t control their own destiny.
But there are plenty of big-time matchups that will have a major impact on next week’s College Football Playoff poll and beyond.
Notre Dame at Arizona State: A loss by the Fighting Irish here decimates Notre Dame’s playoff chances. A win gives the team an excellent chance at 11-1, arguing against the Big 12 and Big Ten champions as well as a potential second SEC team for the fourth playoff spot, as things stand now. In a vacuum, the Sun Devils are the greater playoff threat — beat USC, Stanford, Utah, Notre Dame, Arizona and Oregon as a one-loss Pac-12 champion and you’re probably in the playoff. But too many tripwires remain, and even that result would just transfer a slot assumed to be Oregon’s to Arizona State. A Notre Dame loss here likely will prove more valuable to the SEC.
Kansas State at TCU: Determining the Big 12 is a mess. A TCU win potentially gives the league three teams at 5-1 in conference play after this weekend. But the SEC would love Kansas State to win here for several reasons. TCU’s remaining schedule features Kansas (2-6), Texas (4-5) and Iowa State (2-6). A win Saturday virtually assures them of at least a tie with Baylor and KSU for the Big 12 title. Auburn beat Kansas State on the road earlier this season, and as long as that’s the only loss for the Wildcats, it benefits the SEC — particularly if those two teams are fighting for the fourth and final playoff spot. Plus Kansas State still faces road games against West Virginia and Baylor. Oh, and if TCU did make the playoff, no defense wants to have to compete against Trevone Boykin and an offense that averages 48.0 points per game.
Ohio State at Michigan State: I’ve cautioned against eliminating the Big Ten all season. But, if the Buckeyes pull off the road upset here, it’s pretty safe to write your Big Ten eulogy. It would take major chaos and a flawless rest of the season for Ohio State or Nebraska to become a serious part of the playoff conversation. If the Spartans win, and then take down a rematch with Nebraska to finish the season as a one-loss defending conference champion, Michigan State is a major part of the conversation for the final playoff spot. The SEC doesn’t want that, especially if it wants two teams in the field.
Oregon at Utah: The Ducks tend to shock us when we let our guard down. But this offense is too good, right? Even on the road against a team that’s held USC to 21 and Arizona State to 16 in regulation in its last two outings? Marcus Mariota is a heavy Heisman Trophy favorite as long as he stays healthy, and Oregon is going to be tough to beat. The Ducks are as efficient as they’ve been in many moons. But it would do wonders for the SEC’s second team if Oregon stumbled. Considering Colorado (2-7) and Oregon State (4-4) remain on the schedule, this is the last chance for that to happen in the regular season.

The Gateway Game: Alabama at LSU-cfn

Inside the Numbers: Alabama must shape up on the road

After a week off, Alabama returns to action against LSU on Saturday. The Crimson Tide, ranked 5th by the College Football Playoff committee, will attempt to knock off the No. 16 Tigers for the fourth straight time as they make a run at the SEC West title.
Let’s take a look at some of the interesting numbers behind the matchup.

THE GOOD

• 5-3. Since returning to the college ranks, Nick Saban is 5-3 against his former team. The Crimson Tide have run off three straight wins against LSU, including a victory over the Tigers in the 2011 national championship game. Landon Collins is already talking smack, saying he plans to leave school having never lost to LSU, and oddsmakers have the Tide as a good bet to come out of Death Valley with a win.
• 69.6. LSU is about as one-dimensional as it gets on offense. They have 439 rushing attempts this season compared to just 192 pass attempts, meaning they run the ball 69.6 percent of the time. The Crimson Tide have the second-best run defense in the country, giving up only 78 yards per game on the ground.
• 31. The Crimson Tide have a tendency to get into the backfield no matter where they play, but they’re quite good at it on the road. Alabama has 31 tackles for loss in its four road games this season, eight more than they have in home games. With the way LSU pounds the rock, they’ll need to break up their running rhythm with some stops behind the line.

THE BAD

• 154.2. LSU is stingy agains the pass no matter where they play, but they’re downright inhospitable at home. The Tigers allow opponents to pass for just 154.2 yards per game in Tiger Stadium, a little over half of what Alabama is averaging through the air this season.
• 3. Now in his 10th season at LSU, Les Miles has an outstanding record in night games at Tiger Stadium, losing only three times in such contests. Overall, Miles is 46-3 in vaunted Death Valley night games, although one of those three losses came earlier this season against Mississippi State.
• 3.7. LSU was awful defending the run earlier in the season, getting gouged for a combined 600 yards by Mississippi State and Auburn. They’ve shored that up since then, and are only allowing 3.7 yards per carry and 110.3 yards per game in their last three SEC games. Alabama needs to establish the run in this game, but LSU might not make it easy.