This sums up my thoughts that I didn't present as well as you in my previous post in this thread. While their defense may not be elite, they are better than the stats say..
Pick the score: Mississippi State vs. Alabama
- Thread starter Jessica4Bama
- Start date
35-17 RTR
Sim's is due to be 'ON' here at home.
Can MSU keep him company in our backfield???
Been a couple of weeks since Big Henry has had to carry the load.
Fowler is probably up to run some too.
(Play a big strong team like MSU, WE RUN OUR BIG GUYS, then hit em with a couple of smaller backs)
If Yeldon can play some, it may work out a couple of sore muscles for him.
This would be a good game to see if their big defenders can hang with our receivers.
There are a couple of variations of the 'Tackle Eligible' play we ran against LSU.
Line up the same, and see how MSU responds Defensively.
(Bet our big Tackle is covered like stink...)
IMO: Our Offense is measurably less predictable with CLK calling the plays.
Lane is off the wall enough that MSU or AU may just out think themselves.
THE WORLD IS OUR OYSTER... If we just claim it...
:BigA:
Sim's is due to be 'ON' here at home.
Can MSU keep him company in our backfield???
Been a couple of weeks since Big Henry has had to carry the load.
Fowler is probably up to run some too.
(Play a big strong team like MSU, WE RUN OUR BIG GUYS, then hit em with a couple of smaller backs)
If Yeldon can play some, it may work out a couple of sore muscles for him.
This would be a good game to see if their big defenders can hang with our receivers.
There are a couple of variations of the 'Tackle Eligible' play we ran against LSU.
Line up the same, and see how MSU responds Defensively.
(Bet our big Tackle is covered like stink...)
IMO: Our Offense is measurably less predictable with CLK calling the plays.
Lane is off the wall enough that MSU or AU may just out think themselves.
THE WORLD IS OUR OYSTER... If we just claim it...
:BigA:
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I expect bama to win. not just I think bama is a better team overall, but, the fact that miss st is not use to playing such a critical game at Tuscaloosa. its been a long time since state has beaten bama at bama with any degree of consistency. their pass defense does have problems just like ours. their def line is similar to ours big, quick, aggressive. their linebackers are excellent, just not as many for a long game. their offense is excellent. Prescott plays well within their scheme. each game he has a few big runs. one really good running back robinson, but, we can stop him. receivers average. special teams similar. coaching not at same level. need home team atmosphere. bama 27 state 20.
Let me add something else: look how tentative MSU has looked (and not other worldly) since they rose to number one. Yeah, the won, but they haven't faced pressure like they have, the whole weight of the world on them with no margin for error.
We play big games almost every single week.
They've had no adversity; we just climbed out of the coffin Sat nighte.
We play big games almost every single week.
They've had no adversity; we just climbed out of the coffin Sat nighte.
Alabama's red zone defensive stat is a bit misleading though, because opponents have only been in the red zone 20 times against this season total. I think only Wisconsin has endured fewer opportunities. Of the red zone opportunities they have had, our opponents have scored only 8 TDs and only 2 of those were rushing TDs.
When you give up FIVE touchdown passes of 58 yards or more - those stats don't apply to the red zone, but that's 35 points. And LSU hit them with two 30-plus yard pass TDs, which also don't count.
To put it another way - MSU has given up SEVEN touchdowns from outside the red zone, or only one less than Alabama has given up in 20 trips INSIDE the red zone.
But RUN HEAVY Arkansas passed ON THE ROAD for over 230 yards and never trailed by more than 7 points.
One could also point out that since we hold the ball an average of 2:17 LONGER per game that teams get the ball less and thus pass less on us - and that when they do they are short outs.
And how many of those passes were OUTSIDE the red zone and don't enter the original point you made in any way?
I like your analysis, but the question has really never been can we throw on them it's been can we stop their offense. I think we win, but I really doubt it's going to be a cake walk because Prescott is going to have his plays the question is how many.
This isn't directed at anyone in particular, because I do enjoy the statistical analysis, but stats are for losers. Whether we beat MSU, AU, and anyone else, IMO, is almost solely dependent on Blake. Yes the OLine has to block well and WRs have to catch the passes but our season is really in the hands of Blake. Our defense is solid and will be good enough to win those games but we have got to find a way to generate more points on offense and control the LOS/TOP more. Our defense is very good, but can be great if we let them play with a lead so they can be more aggressive..
This is a skewed stat. Red Zone defense only rates how a defense does once a team gets into the red zone. Alabama's defense is a whole lot better at keeping teams from ever getting to the red zone. Scoring defense is a lot more holistic and better to anticipate outcomes in a given game. Alabama is #2 in the country while allowing 13.9 ppg. MSU is #16 while allowing 19.7 ppg. A few other notes about scoring defense comparisons:
* 3 common SEC opponents (LSU, aTm and Arkansas) - MSU allowed 23.3 ppg while Alabama allowed 8.6 ppg. Both had LSU on the road, both had aTm at home, MSU had Arkansas at home while Alabama had them on the road.
* Against SEC competition as a whole - Alabama is allowing 15 ppg while MSU is allowing 24.8 ppg.
* Alabama's turnovers have gifted almost half of the points allowed. Alabama gives up almost nothing when they force their opposition to march the entire field and score. Avoiding turnovers is critical, and Alabama has become much better in this area.
In summary, I would much rather have Alabama's defense than MSU's - and it isn't close.
ETA - Just noticed that both teams also played Southern Miss at home. Add them into common opponents and MSU is allowing 17.5 ppg while Alabama is allowing 9.5 ppg.
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Stats are what is left after the game is played and they accurately reflect what took place on the field. They are certainly backwards looking, but this far into a season they can tell you a great deal about a team. You just have to know what each statistic represents. Too many people quote stats that they simply do not understand.
I agree. It's just you can't say (not you necessarily) MSU has the #120 ranked passing defense therefore we will be able to pass with ease. It's just not that black and white. Thousands of examples but one off the top of my head is Texas in the BCSNCG had the "#1 Ranked Rushing Defense." We all know how that turned out. Stats are great for discussion but not a good indicator of how a game will play out, IMO..
I use stats to help predict a game. I try not to be simple and say "Team Y is ranked __ in pass defense, and Team I is ranked __ in passing offense. Therefore, Team I will destroy Team Y." I prefer to look at a team's stat rankings, compare to its opponents (ala 2009 Texas being #1 rush defense and what kind of rushing offenses it faced), and then see if the team held its opponents below their average or if an offense exceeded the defense's allowed average.
You are reading too much into what Saban said. To paraphrase, Saban said that MSU's pass defense ranking is skewed because they had such big leads and the other teams had to throw the ball. Well, what about Alabama's opponents? WVU is a better passing team than anyone on MSU's schedule. They barely tried to run the ball the entire game. And Alabama beat aTm 59-0. Think that they were trying to run the ball? No - they were throwing the ball on every down, as were FL Atl and Southern Miss. They played Auburn, and we all know that Auburn only passes when they have to (and that isn't often).
The reality - their pass defense is weak and Alabama can take advantage of this.
I agree their pass defense is their biggest weakness. I just don't think it is as bad as their pass defense ranking - 120 out of 124 I think is what somebody said it was..
I agree with that. It is weak, just not as weak. Still though, you have to think our WRs would have a big day.
THEY ARE GOING TO NEED MORE COWBELL. Bama is bringing the heat on Dak and we should see a Kiffen aerial raid unlike we've seen since the Florida game. I think we can name our score.
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