Muschamp ... "resigns"

Re: Muschamp Fired

Hiring a new coach, whether he has HC experience or not, is always a crapshoot.

Experienced HCs, even ones that have been successful at other spots, sometimes fail...Franchione and Price come to mind. Surprisingly often, inexperienced HCs succeed.

In the AP Top 25, here are the first time head coaches:
1. Mississippi State
2. Florida State
3. Oregon
5. TCU
6. Baylor
9. Auburn (unless you count one year at Arkansas State as "HC experience")
11. Nebraska
13. Kansas State (yes, Snyder's been there a long time, but it's his first and only HC job)
16. Georgia (again, Richt's been there a long time, but it's his first HC job)
18. Clemson
23. Colorado State
25. Utah

So depending on how you count Malzahn at Auburn, either 11 or 12 of the Top 25 are first time head coaches. Most surprising to me is that four of the top five teams have first time HCs.

It's unquestionably hard to predict future coaching performance. Guys that you have every reason to believe will be successful, still fail. Guys whose records would give no indication of successful prospects, nevertheless succeed -- Gene Stallings was a twice-failed HC, and unemployed when he came to Alabama.

But as much as you hear that this school or that isn't the place for OTJT, evidence would indicate that HC experience isn't all that great a predictor.

I don't envy ADs faced with a hiring decision. In their shoes, however, I'd value success in a repeatable system / process over HC experience. If I could get both, so much the better, but to me, the process trumps experience.

Which means that if I were Foley, I'd look long and close at Kirby Smart.

I fully realize that, given Muschamp's failure, the emotions of the fan base might not allow hiring an assistant. If that's the case, I'd try to mend fences with Mullen. Given the losses the MSU team will experience after this season, I think he'd be wise to cash in on his personal stock, which won't realistically be this high for a long time.