Never said you were a Barner, just said it sounds like the same stuff I've heard Barners say on several occasions.
iron bowl rankings stat. please tell me i'm wrong
- Thread starter cmmiller711
- Start date
wasn't Auburn ranked when Bo ran the wrong way in the 1984 game?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5dtXW-PolE
This whole thread is ridiculous. Saying we have a trend where X happens might be valid if the same players played every year. But for Pete's sake, the same two teams didn't even square off in 1981 and 1982 against each other. (Or pick any other two years).
I've seen all but four Iron Bowls since 1981. In all honesty, only TWO of those games can be considered anything like an upset: 1984 and 2002, and in my view you can toss the latter off because the coach basically threw the game with his lack of preparation and plotting how to get the hell out of Dodge.
The better team pretty much ALWAYS wins this game. Without exception. Folks like to point to a few games here and there and they are treated as upsets but the reality is that they aren't.
1) 2001 - this is considered an upset we won. Auburn was 7-2 entering the game and we were 4-5. Everybody ignores the fact both teams FINISHED with the same record. This wasn't really an upset at all. In fact, drop the record entering the game (remember, the season was delayed due to 9/11 that year - games pushed off a week)
Auburn beat Ole Miss by 6, we lost by 3
Both teams beat Vandy by 3
We beat Arkansas by 21, Auburn lost to Arky by 24
They beat MSU by 2, we won by 7
These were the four common opponents BEFORE we met. Auburn's rep was based almost entirely on the Florida game. But the truth is this simply wasn't much of an upset. It was considered one at the time - but it really wasn't.
2) 2002 - say what you want here about how good we looked but the fact is that Auburn was 9-4 and we were 10-3. So it's not like it was that big an upset.
3) 2013 - in light of the fact Auburn won the SEC and played for the national title, this is hard to view as an upset, either. Now, of course we should have won - 3 red zone trips in the fourth quarter and zero points hurt us. Killed us. But hardly an upset.
4) 1985 - Auburn was 8-2 entering the game and we were 7-2-1. They beat UGA by 14, we needed a comeback to win by four (although we led until the last minute before the blocked punt). They got creamed by Tennessee, 38-20, we lost a 16-14 game we should have won. We beat MSU far worse than they did (while the final spread was only 16 points to their 12, we led MSU, 44-6, at one point and rested players). And we both played about the same schedule. This wasn't an upset, either.
The only bona fide upset - unquestioned upset - was the 1984 game, where a 4-6 Alabama beat an Auburn team with three losses heading to the Sugar Bowl. Even the 1972 Punt Bama Punt game was not much of an upset in terms of reality because Auburn was a top ten team at the time.
The simple truth is that the better team is going to win this game based on the trend since the rivalry was renewed in 1948.
I've seen all but four Iron Bowls since 1981. In all honesty, only TWO of those games can be considered anything like an upset: 1984 and 2002, and in my view you can toss the latter off because the coach basically threw the game with his lack of preparation and plotting how to get the hell out of Dodge.
The better team pretty much ALWAYS wins this game. Without exception. Folks like to point to a few games here and there and they are treated as upsets but the reality is that they aren't.
1) 2001 - this is considered an upset we won. Auburn was 7-2 entering the game and we were 4-5. Everybody ignores the fact both teams FINISHED with the same record. This wasn't really an upset at all. In fact, drop the record entering the game (remember, the season was delayed due to 9/11 that year - games pushed off a week)
Auburn beat Ole Miss by 6, we lost by 3
Both teams beat Vandy by 3
We beat Arkansas by 21, Auburn lost to Arky by 24
They beat MSU by 2, we won by 7
These were the four common opponents BEFORE we met. Auburn's rep was based almost entirely on the Florida game. But the truth is this simply wasn't much of an upset. It was considered one at the time - but it really wasn't.
2) 2002 - say what you want here about how good we looked but the fact is that Auburn was 9-4 and we were 10-3. So it's not like it was that big an upset.
3) 2013 - in light of the fact Auburn won the SEC and played for the national title, this is hard to view as an upset, either. Now, of course we should have won - 3 red zone trips in the fourth quarter and zero points hurt us. Killed us. But hardly an upset.
4) 1985 - Auburn was 8-2 entering the game and we were 7-2-1. They beat UGA by 14, we needed a comeback to win by four (although we led until the last minute before the blocked punt). They got creamed by Tennessee, 38-20, we lost a 16-14 game we should have won. We beat MSU far worse than they did (while the final spread was only 16 points to their 12, we led MSU, 44-6, at one point and rested players). And we both played about the same schedule. This wasn't an upset, either.
The only bona fide upset - unquestioned upset - was the 1984 game, where a 4-6 Alabama beat an Auburn team with three losses heading to the Sugar Bowl. Even the 1972 Punt Bama Punt game was not much of an upset in terms of reality because Auburn was a top ten team at the time.
The simple truth is that the better team is going to win this game based on the trend since the rivalry was renewed in 1948.
Yes, it would indeed be a selective statistic.
You start the rivalry when the rivalry started, not at some arbitrary point that makes you feel better or, in this case, worse about your team.
As far as THIS year's game...
This is our 2009 UF SECCG, our rematch with LSU, the 2008 IB. This game, this date, has been circled and examined and very likely given a little extra prep here and there. For 365.
The Crimson Tide will come out like sharks when there's blood in the water. The crowd will be in a frenzy. Auburn is stumbling into a meat grinder of buzz saws and razor blades. We win by 21+.
Why? Well, because in the rivalry "trend" of ups and downs and revenge and emotion - this is clearly OUR year. Maybe not nationally - that remains to be seen - but the STATE is ours.
This is our 2009 UF SECCG, our rematch with LSU, the 2008 IB. This game, this date, has been circled and examined and very likely given a little extra prep here and there. For 365.
The Crimson Tide will come out like sharks when there's blood in the water. The crowd will be in a frenzy. Auburn is stumbling into a meat grinder of buzz saws and razor blades. We win by 21+.
Why? Well, because in the rivalry "trend" of ups and downs and revenge and emotion - this is clearly OUR year. Maybe not nationally - that remains to be seen - but the STATE is ours.
Exactly! I picked this game the same as i did the 2009 SECCG. 31-13. Didn't miss it much, did I ?
Since you seem to like trends so much, here are a couple of previous iron bowl trends that have since been broken.
From 1989-1997, Bama WAS win-less at auburn. BUT, that CHANGED in 1999 when we got our first win at jerdy-hair. So, we started out 0-4 in games played at auburn, but have since gone 4-4 in games played at that SAME location.
Also, remember, the barn USED to be undefeated in Tuscaloosa. That changed forever in 2008. In fact, we are 2-1 against the barn in Tuscaloosa the last three times we have hosted them. I would dare to say that that is a slight change in trend. Would you? Even the SAME barners who used to chest beat about never having lost in T town said after 2008 that the days of auburn winning there on a regular basis were definitely over.
The thing about trends is, they eventually change.
The six straight losses in the last decade permanently scarred the psyche of those of us who had to live through it, but it also stoked the fires of why we hate the Barn too. Throw in a couple of epic choke jobs in 2010 and 2013 and it's understandable for us to be nervous of Barner voodoo.
The Barners who lived through the 1970's (after the "Punt Bama Punt" game) went through a similar thing and that's why that generation hated Bama so much.
So I'm hoping that if 2010 didn't do it, 2013 and all the snide "got a second?" comments will burn in the team's memory for about the next decade and we go on an epic run.
However, once again, none of that really matters this Saturday. Just win this game and we'll worry about the next decade vs. the Barners later.
The Barners who lived through the 1970's (after the "Punt Bama Punt" game) went through a similar thing and that's why that generation hated Bama so much.
So I'm hoping that if 2010 didn't do it, 2013 and all the snide "got a second?" comments will burn in the team's memory for about the next decade and we go on an epic run.
However, once again, none of that really matters this Saturday. Just win this game and we'll worry about the next decade vs. the Barners later.
Since 1994 the team with the best record has won 15 and lost 5. We have the better record this year. 75%.
The team with at least a three game better record (10-2 vs 7-5) has won 10 and lost 1. We have a 10-1 and they have an 8-3 record. So, as in the first example, we have a 75% chance.
The team with at least a three game better record (10-2 vs 7-5) has won 10 and lost 1. We have a 10-1 and they have an 8-3 record. So, as in the first example, we have a 75% chance.
The flip side of this trend is that Alabama doesn't get blown out by Auburn, even when they are much better than we are.
Auburn has been on the wrong end of some really embarrassing blowouts in this series.
Auburn has been on the wrong end of some really embarrassing blowouts in this series.
The OP asked to be told that he is wrong.
Based on the tedious conditions of the analysis, I cannot tell him he's wrong.
My concern is the psychology here.
Why on earth was the question broached in the first place? We are already worried. This season has been like reliving 1973, when we were coming off the insanely weird punt-Bama-punt game. Now we are coming off the insanely weird kick-sick game.
If this were the middle of the off-season it might not be so off-putting. But now? On Iron Bowl week? It sounds like you're in the pits and you want to bring us all down with you.
Based on the tedious conditions of the analysis, I cannot tell him he's wrong.
My concern is the psychology here.
Why on earth was the question broached in the first place? We are already worried. This season has been like reliving 1973, when we were coming off the insanely weird punt-Bama-punt game. Now we are coming off the insanely weird kick-sick game.
If this were the middle of the off-season it might not be so off-putting. But now? On Iron Bowl week? It sounds like you're in the pits and you want to bring us all down with you.
Amen that is so true. The barn haven't beat Alabama by more than 10 since 1969. They have even acknowledged that on ITAT and AUFamily.
It was clear to me your post was talking about what has happened before, and was not suggesting it would have any impact.
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