I think you nailed it; If Bama plays great they will win. If Bama turns it over or plays average, Ohio St will win. But the two teams are very competitive. Bama is not good enough to win without playing well in this game.
Your 2012 team had the best O-Line in college football history and Lacy at RB - the same Lacy who has been an absolute beast in the NFL. I don't think that it was ND as much as it was Alabama. I remember the threads leading up to that game and we all knew, really knew, that Alabama was going to be able to run the ball at will in that game. Saban had over a month to prepare, and you had the horses to dominate a team that was really lucky to even be in the game. Notre Dame was not the second best team in the country that year. They might not have belonged in the top 10.
This Alabama team has more talent across the board than the 2012 team had, but you have only played like it in spurts. If the dominant Alabama teams shows up, I think that we will really struggle in this game and it could be over by half-time. But if the other Alabama team shows up, we are good enough to beat you. We are a lot better than most of you think. We are a lot better than that 2012 Notre Dame team.