Russia's New Generation Warfare

Tidewater

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Latvian army officer Jānis Bērziņš has produced in English, a good article on what the Russians are now calling New Generation Warfare.
The Journal of Military Operations. (Free, but you have to register).
The key changes from previous Russian views of war:
1. From direct destruction to direct influence;
2. from direct annihilation of the opponent to its inner decay;
3. from a war with weapons and technology to a culture war;
4. from a war with conventional forces to specially prepared forces and commercial irregular groupings;
5. from the traditional (3D) battleground to information/psychological warfare and war of perceptions;
6. from direct clash to contactless war;
7. from a superficial and compartmented war to a total war, including the enemy’s internal side and base;
8. from war in the physical environment to a war in the human consciousness and in cyberspace;
9. from symmetric to asymmetric warfare by a combination of political, economic, information, technological, and ecological campaigns;
10. from war in a defined period of time to a state of permanent war as the natural condition in national life.


Phases of such an operation are:
First Phase: non-military asymmetric warfare (encompassing information, moral, psychological, ideological, diplomatic, and economic measures as part of a plan to establish a favorable political, economic, and military setup).
Second Phase: special operations to mislead political and military leaders by coordinated measures carried out by diplomatic channels, media, and top government and military agencies by leaking false data, orders, directives, and instructions.
Third Phase: intimidation, deceiving, and bribing government and military officers, with the objective of making them abandon their service duties.
Fourth Phase: destabilizing propaganda to increase discontent among the population, boosted by the arrival of Russian bands of militants, escalating subversion.
Fifth Phase: establishment of no-fly zones over the country to be attacked, imposition of blockades, and extensive use of private military companies in close cooperation with armed opposition units.
Sixth Phase: commencement of military action, immediately preceded by large-scale reconnaissance and subversive missions. All types, forms, methods, and forces, including special operations forces, space, radio, radio engineering, electronic, diplomatic,
and secret service intelligence, and industrial espionage.
Seventh Phase: combination of targeted information operation, electronic warfare operation, aerospace operation, continuous air force harassment, combined with the use of high-precision weapons launched from various platforms (long-range artillery,
and weapons based on new physical principles, including microwaves, radiation, non-lethal biological weapons).
Eighth Phase: roll over the remaining points of resistance and destroy surviving enemy units by special operations conducted by reconnaissance units to spot which enemy units have survived and transmit their coordinates to the attacker’s missile and artillery units; fire barrages to annihilate the defender’s resisting army units by effective advanced weapons; airdrop operations to surround points of resistance; and territory mopping-up operations by ground troops.

I just found this interesting. Berzin feels that the Russians will assess at Phase Five to see if conditions exist to go forward. If not, they wait.
Note that this is for what the Russians call the "near abroad" not a potential war against the US.
 
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TIDE-HSV

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Oct 13, 1999
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Latvian army officer Jānis Bērziņš has produced in English, a good article on what the Russians are now calling New Generation Warfare.
The Journal of Military Operations. (Free, but you have to register).
The key changes from previous Russian views of war:
1. From direct destruction to direct influence;
2. from direct annihilation of the opponent to its inner decay;
3. from a war with weapons and technology to a culture war;
4. from a war with conventional forces to specially prepared forces and commercial irregular groupings;
5. from the traditional (3D) battleground to information/psychological warfare and war of perceptions;
6. from direct clash to contactless war;
7. from a superficial and compartmented war to a total war, including the enemy’s internal side and base;
8. from war in the physical environment to a war in the human consciousness and in cyberspace;
9. from symmetric to asymmetric warfare by a combination of political, economic, information, technological, and ecological campaigns;
10. from war in a defined period of time to a state of permanent war as the natural condition in national life.


Phases of such an operation are:
First Phase: non-military asymmetric warfare (encompassing information, moral, psychological, ideological, diplomatic, and economic measures as part of a plan to establish a favorable political, economic, and military setup).
Second Phase: special operations to mislead political and military leaders by coordinated measures carried out by diplomatic channels, media, and top government and military agencies by leaking false data, orders, directives, and instructions.
Third Phase: intimidation, deceiving, and bribing government and military officers, with the objective of making them abandon their service duties.
Fourth Phase: destabilizing propaganda to increase discontent among the population, boosted by the arrival of Russian bands of militants, escalating subversion.
Fifth Phase: establishment of no-fly zones over the country to be attacked, imposition of blockades, and extensive use of private military companies in close cooperation with armed opposition units.
Sixth Phase: commencement of military action, immediately preceded by large-scale reconnaissance and subversive missions. All types, forms, methods, and forces, including special operations forces, space, radio, radio engineering, electronic, diplomatic,
and secret service intelligence, and industrial espionage.
Seventh Phase: combination of targeted information operation, electronic warfare operation, aerospace operation, continuous air force harassment, combined with the use of high-precision weapons launched from various platforms (long-range artillery,
and weapons based on new physical principles, including microwaves, radiation, non-lethal biological weapons).
Eighth Phase: roll over the remaining points of resistance and destroy surviving enemy units by special operations conducted by reconnaissance units to spot which enemy units have survived and transmit their coordinates to the attacker’s missile and artillery units; fire barrages to annihilate the defender’s resisting army units by effective advanced weapons; airdrop operations to surround points of resistance; and territory mopping-up operations by ground troops.

I just found this interesting. Berzin feels that the Russians will assess at Phase Five to see if conditions exist to go forward. If not, they wait.
Note that this is for what the Russians call the "near abroad" not a potential war against the US.
IDK. You realize that The Latvians have more to fear than any other former satellite and this man has more of a vested conflict of interest in trying to project a great Russian plan of return to at least continental domination? Wouldn't you, in his place? Unless he's penetrated Russian military/civilian intelligence to a degree which is mind-boggling, this is all self-serving pap. Putin is a huge strategic success. Right. He's gained a nice vacation spot and an economy which may make it impossible to feed his people over the next year. Right back to Russia the beggar nation. I'll read the article, but I'll believe it if I see it and only then...
 

Tidewater

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IDK. You realize that The Latvians have more to fear than any other former satellite and this man has more of a vested conflict of interest in trying to project a great Russian plan of return to at least continental domination? Wouldn't you, in his place? Unless he's penetrated Russian military/civilian intelligence to a degree which is mind-boggling, this is all self-serving pap. Putin is a huge strategic success. Right. He's gained a nice vacation spot and an economy which may make it impossible to feed his people over the next year. Right back to Russia the beggar nation. I'll read the article, but I'll believe it if I see it and only then...
It is surely self-serving, but I am not sure it is pap. As I said in my caveat, this is mostly about what the Russians call the "near abroad," by which they mean the former Soviet republics and possibly the Warsaw Pact nations.
I went back and looked at the Russian sources and this Latvian is not taking great liberties with those sources. General Valeriy Gerasimov, the Chief of the Russian General Staff, writes exactly this.
I am not worried about Russian troops collaborating with ethnic Russian minorities in Chicago, but I would not be surprised if we see Russia annex the Russian-majority oblasts of Ukraine (Donetsk or Lugansk) and then rocking the boat a bit in Latvia and Estonia, just to see what turns up.
Strategically, I believe Putin just wants the West, especially the US to acknowledge that Russia is a player on the world stage and deferring to Russia a bit more.
Europe has plotted a course between the US and the Soviets and Putin would prefer to see them tack a bit closer to Moscow than they have of late.
Soviet atrocities during the Communist occupation makes that a little difficult in New Europe. They remember and they are ticked off.
 

TIDE-HSV

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It is surely self-serving, but I am not sure it is pap. As I said in my caveat, this is mostly about what the Russians call the "near abroad," by which they mean the former Soviet republics and possibly the Warsaw Pact nations.
I went back and looked at the Russian sources and this Latvian is not taking great liberties with those sources. General Valeriy Gerasimov, the Chief of the Russian General Staff, writes exactly this.
I am not worried about Russian troops collaborating with ethnic Russian minorities in Chicago, but I would not be surprised if we see Russia annex the Russian-majority oblasts of Ukraine (Donetsk or Lugansk) and then rocking the boat a bit in Latvia and Estonia, just to see what turns up.
Strategically, I believe Putin just wants the West, especially the US to acknowledge that Russia is a player on the world stage and deferring to Russia a bit more.
Europe has plotted a course between the US and the Soviets and Putin would prefer to see them tack a bit closer to Moscow than they have of late.

Soviet atrocities during the Communist occupation makes that a little difficult in New Europe. They remember and they are ticked off.
I'm not sure that I'd call that a strategic goal, being so vague. I still regard Putin as a tactician. I know that the media trumpets his recent achievements as "successes." I'd say that the jury is still very much out on that and the end game is not yet in sight. I'd hate like hell to have the US economy and the dollar in the fix that Russia's and the ruble are in. There are a lot of Russians in love with the strong man image now. Let's see where they are after this winter and possibly another. The world oil surplus situation will not change in the near future. The Russian minorities in the three Baltic states run in the 20-25% range, which has reversed a lot from when the USSR broke up. Another thing to remember is that those countries are far different from Ukraine, because they are members of the EU and NATO. This hems in Putin significantly in those regions. Interestingly enough, many ethnic Russians in those countries utilized their new EU passports to emigrate to the UK and Ireland and other EU destinations, rather than return to Mother Russia. Also, as a true capitalist, I think that Putin's long-standing process of converting public assets into return to his cronies' pocketbooks is a long-term failure, because it never converts into real economic growth (which flees the country at the first sign of trouble). Of course, the same thing is happening here also, but not so blatantly as there...
 

4Q Basket Case

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Putin scares me. I think he's capable of just about anything. Couple that with a no-foolin' economic crisis, and I think of him as I would a cornered bear.

In his mind, he has nothing to lose....so, so what if he delivers a nuke to ISIS to lob at Israel? It would drive the price of oil to well over $150 a barrel in the short term, and $100+ in the medium to long term. Economic crisis solved. Cash flowing again.

The only thing he understands is strength, and we've shown nothing but weakness and dithering.

JMHO, but the random factor he introduces is far more concerning economically than a 20% correction to the S&P.
 

Tidewater

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I'm not sure that I'd call that a strategic goal, being so vague. I still regard Putin as a tactician. I know that the media trumpets his recent achievements as "successes." I'd say that the jury is still very much out on that and the end game is not yet in sight. I'd hate like hell to have the US economy and the dollar in the fix that Russia's and the ruble are in. There are a lot of Russians in love with the strong man image now. Let's see where they are after this winter and possibly another. The world oil surplus situation will not change in the near future. The Russian minorities in the three Baltic states run in the 20-25% range, which has reversed a lot from when the USSR broke up. Another thing to remember is that those countries are far different from Ukraine, because they are members of the EU and NATO. This hems in Putin significantly in those regions. Interestingly enough, many ethnic Russians in those countries utilized their new EU passports to emigrate to the UK and Ireland and other EU destinations, rather than return to Mother Russia. Also, as a true capitalist, I think that Putin's long-standing process of converting public assets into return to his cronies' pocketbooks is a long-term failure, because it never converts into real economic growth (which flees the country at the first sign of trouble). Of course, the same thing is happening here also, but not so blatantly as there...
You are correct, I believe, Putin is a tactician and an opportunist.
Where Russian strategy gets weird is the conflation (in the minds of decision-makers) of what political ends Russia should pursue and what political ends particular Russian politicians should pursue.
I'm sure there are a lot of Russian strategists (both military and civilian) who are looking at what Putin is doing in the same way Jodl and Keitel looked at Hitler in 1944. (i.e. "Man, where is he taking us?")
What is bad for the Russian people writ large, however, is probably not going to be so bad for the Russian political elites. Given that Russians put up with Communist dictators for seven decades, the hope that the Russians will toss him in the bin seems not likely to come to pass, at least not in the near future.

The document referenced by Valeri Gerasimov comes from a Russian career army officer, trying to give guidance to Russian military forces as to how best to prepare for their next war. Gerasimov has a solid rep. Born in Kazan, served in the Far East, then commanded a motorized rifle division in the Baltic States, and commanded an Army in the 2nd Chechen War. Arrested army officer Yuri Budanov for the murder of Chechen civilians. Commanded Military Districts of Leningrad and Moscow. Gerasimov is reliable and his significant service pre-dates Putin's rise to power (although I'm sure Putin is very comfortable with him or he wouldn't be where he is). Gerasimov is trying to codify the way his boss wants to fight, if it comes to that.
 

TIDE-HSV

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You are correct, I believe, Putin is a tactician and an opportunist.
Where Russian strategy gets weird is the conflation (in the minds of decision-makers) of what political ends Russia should pursue and what political ends particular Russian politicians should pursue.
I'm sure there are a lot of Russian strategists (both military and civilian) who are looking at what Putin is doing in the same way Jodl and Keitel looked at Hitler in 1944. (i.e. "Man, where is he taking us?")
What is bad for the Russian people writ large, however, is probably not going to be so bad for the Russian political elites. Given that Russians put up with Communist dictators for seven decades, the hope that the Russians will toss him in the bin seems not likely to come to pass, at least not in the near future.

The document referenced by Valeri Gerasimov comes from a Russian career army officer, trying to give guidance to Russian military forces as to how best to prepare for their next war. Gerasimov has a solid rep. Born in Kazan, served in the Far East, then commanded a motorized rifle division in the Baltic States, and commanded an Army in the 2nd Chechen War. Arrested army officer Yuri Budanov for the murder of Chechen civilians. Commanded Military Districts of Leningrad and Moscow. Gerasimov is reliable and his significant service pre-dates Putin's rise to power (although I'm sure Putin is very comfortable with him or he wouldn't be where he is). Gerasimov is trying to codify the way his boss wants to fight, if it comes to that.
I think you're correct that the Russian leaders have always been able to get away with, well, murder, before the people turn. However, they no longer live on an island like they did. Even if he's not outright thrown out, he simply doesn't have the leeway to act he used to. His buddies losing the freedom of manipulating their overseas assets will constrain him, if nothing else. I don't doubt for a moment that Gerasimov is a strategic thinker, but, in the end, all he's doing is providing the right clothing for Putin's adventurism. Hitler, too, had good strategic thinkers to draw on, whom he ignored over and over...
 

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