Link: Mariota declares for draft. How far will Oregon fall? Or will they?

We'll see. Stanford is better than the record they had this year. Arizona and ASU have gotten better.
I was surprised he declared, but will be even more surprised if they have someone to take his place next year who is half as good as he was these last two years.

They will almost certainly fall IMO. When Mariota was out with shoulder pain after Bosa tackled him, the team seemed to have no sense of direction or rhythm. They got a 15 yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty, then Lockie came in and the announcers mentioned that he had played very little this year. Oregon got a false start penalty, then a pretty sad-looking incompletion before Mariota returned. Mariota was the driving force for them for two years.

crimsonaudio said:

Doubtful. Mariota was only offered a scholarship by two schools - Oregon and Memphis...

IOW, Oregon doesn't typically recruit at a high level; they win with speed and that stupid HUNH.

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And without his full complement of receivers and against 'power football' competition, MM struggled mightily. Doesn't bode well for his NFL future, especially if he gets drafted by any team not coached by Chip Kelly.

As long as Phil Knight is pumping money into their program, Oregon will do well. Just not Championship level well.

trenda said:

And without his full complement of receivers and against 'power football' competition, MM struggled mightily. Doesn't bode well for his NFL future, especially if he gets drafted by any team not coached by Chip Kelly.

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Worth noting that against Michigan State, Florida State, and Ohio State, Mariota completed roughly 66% of his passes, threw for about 1,000 yards, and had 7 touchdowns against 2 picks. Also added nearly another 150 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown, too.

Who knows, perhaps he flops in the pros, but those are monster numbers he posted against some very good opponents. "Struggled mightily" is just plain wrong. Oregon was ultimately overwhelmed by Ohio State, of course, but Mariota was never the problem. If anything, he -- along with the Ohio State butter fingers -- was the only thing keeping the game competitive.

I don't expect them to really drop for two reasons:
1. Oregon is successful because of their system, not because of Mariota.
2. I've posted this on here before, but the national championship teams of the last 5-10 years have been dominated by 1st and maybe 2nd year QBs. Veteran QBs haven't made the championship game often in recent years and if they do, they lose (example: Marcus Mariota). A great system with talent is more important than having a veteran QB.

Who was the QB in 2010 when they played for the NC against AU? I honestly can't recall off the top of my head. I probably won't forget MM that easily but I expect with 2-3 years they will be back in the hunt for the NC with another QB. They do have a good system in place even if they haven't won the NC.

imauafan said:

Who was the QB in 2010 when they played for the NC against AU? I honestly can't recall off the top of my head. I probably won't forget MM that easily but I expect with 2-3 years they will be back in the hunt for the NC with another QB. They do have a good system in place even if they haven't won the NC.

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Darron Thomas. Last seen playing Arena Football.

imauafan said:

Who was the QB in 2010 when they played for the NC against AU? I honestly can't recall off the top of my head. I probably won't forget MM that easily but I expect with 2-3 years they will be back in the hunt for the NC with another QB. They do have a good system in place even if they haven't won the NC.

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As far as I'm concerned, no one has come close to Mariota's performance as a HUNH quarterback. As such, the only way Oregon doesn't take a significant step back is if they miraculously find a QB who can match some of Mariota's production AND they become the first hurry-up team in history to play actual defense.

Splitting the atom may prove easier.

Not one Oregon QB has had, what I would consider, a good NFL career, but they keep winning...... Psst, It's entirely the system! I would never draft any QB from Oregon, or any other "system" program.

Bamabuzzard said:

How odd is that? Goes against all football logic. LOL!

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I can't explain it. Starting with Alabama's ascent... AJ McCarron is the only QB to win a national championship who wasn't in his first year as a starter. But, he did that too the year prior.

2014 - Cardale Jones (1st year) over Marcus Mariota (3rd year starter)
2013 - Jameis Winston (1st) over Nick Marshall (1st)
2012 - McCarron (2nd) over Everett Golson (1st)
2011 - McCarron (1st) over Jarrett Lee (2nd - but two non-consecutive years)
2010 - Cam Newton (1st) over Darron Thomas (1st)
2009 - McElroy (1st) over Colt McCoy (4th) and Garrett Gilbert...

They will still be a dominating force in the PAC 12, but fall flat nationally. So, even steven.

I'm so glad that my Dolphins don't have one of the top 2 picks this year and have to chose between a great QB with discipline problems or a system QB. Who had the best NFL career out of all Oregon QBs of the Bellotti/Kelly/Helfrich era? Was it Joey Harrington or Kellen Clemens? If he goes Tampa or Tennessee, he will be a complete bust. He might do okay on the Eagles, but no way he falls that low.

imauafan said:

Who was the QB in 2010 when they played for the NC against AU? I honestly can't recall off the top of my head. I probably won't forget MM that easily but I expect with 2-3 years they will be back in the hunt for the NC with another QB. They do have a good system in place even if they haven't won the NC.

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Yeah he was supposed to be irreplaceable.

CrimsonChuck said:

I'm so glad that my Dolphins don't have one of the top 2 picks this year and have to chose between a great QB with discipline problems or a system QB. Who had the best NFL career out of all Oregon QBs of the Bellotti/Kelly/Helfrich era? Was it Joey Harrington or Kellen Clemens? If he goes Tampa or Tennessee, he will be a complete bust. He might do okay on the Eagles, but no way he falls that low.

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To be fair, the Titans could probably make anyone a complete bust.

BigEasyTider said:

Worth noting that against Michigan State, Florida State, and Ohio State, Mariota completed roughly 66% of his passes, threw for about 1,000 yards, and had 7 touchdowns against 2 picks. Also added nearly another 150 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown, too.

Who knows, perhaps he flops in the pros, but those are monster numbers he posted against some very good opponents. "Struggled mightily" is just plain wrong. Oregon was ultimately overwhelmed by Ohio State, of course, but Mariota was never the problem. If anything, he -- along with the Ohio State butter fingers -- was the only thing keeping the game competitive.

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I'm basing it on the fact that, in the championship game, he ran for more than 12 yds below his average, his completion % was four points lower than his average, he went 3 for 10 passing on third down (the Ducks were 2 for 12 on 3rd down overall -- 0 for 4 in the second half -- and 0-2 on 4th down, including once on 4th and goal from the one), and was stuffed at the 1 yard line on 3rd and goal. He was 7/15 in the second half with 1 TD and 1 INT. IMO, for a QB that normally puts up video game-like stats - the Heisman Trophy winner, that's struggling. And considering it was the national championship game, I'd say it was mightily. Just my opinion, though. I just think he's more a product of that system and believe it will show through at the next level. Of course, I wouldn't bet anything on that.

They have a system in place. The only mitigating factor is if their current head coach doesn't have the ability to maintain it. They were a competitive team playing in BCS games and challenge USC even when Carroll was around. I don't see them falling off the map just because of Mariota leaving.