Tidewater I'm not trying to hijack, but can you give me a quick top three list, of what it would have taken for the south to win the war? If you don't feel like it I understand.
Wow. The south winning was always a long shot.
Okay, here's my best guess:
1. Stonewall Jackson does not get killed at Chancellorsville, the ANV wins at Gettysburg, either (a) takes Philadelphia* or (b) isolates Washington's rail connections with the rest of the US, the Federal government moves to New York. (This latter one would have been easier and more dramatic.) The embarrassment of this finally moves France and Great Britain to offer their good offices to secure a ceasefire and negotiations.
2. British recognition. (We have a long border with Canada, and they have really big, really good navy). This one would be tough, since the British Prime Minister would have been loathe to recognize a slaveholding republic. If, in 1861, the Confederates had heeded Patrick Cleburne’s advise and offered to free the slaves in exchange for British recognition and assistance, John Bull might have taken the bait.
3. John Wilkes Booth gets really ticked off in 1862, not 1865. Lincoln's security was poor through most of the war, getting only marginally better late in the conflict. Problem is, who knows how effective Hannibal Hamlin would have been as commander-in-chief? Would Hamlin have had the stone to bench Little Mac? With Little Mac in command of the AoP, the war could have dragged on until northerners got tired of it. Lincoln was quite poor in 1861-2, but by 1864 was functioning pretty well as C-in-C. He learned on the job. As an aside, Lincoln’s murder in 1865 was a catastrophe for the South, because only Lincoln had the clout to hold off the Radical a-holes in Congress (evil, hateful men like Thaddeus Stevens, Edwin Stanton and John Sherman). Johnson never had any clout with the Radicals and they beat him like a rented mule.
All of these were long shots.
* In 1864, looking back at the previous year, Lee told Harry Heth, “The legitimate fruits of a victory, if gained in Pennsylvania, could be more readily reaped than on our own soil. We would have been in a few days' march of Philadelphia, and the occupation of that city would have given us peace.” (S.H.S.P., volume 4, pg. 153.) Plus, Lee’s army brought 600 feet of pontoon bridging with them enough bridging to cross the Susquehanna River (O.R. XXV, Part 2, pg. 735).