Link: Interesting analysis of the Putin government...
- Thread starter TIDE-HSV
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Interesting article. I had posted a link to this in the Crimea thread.
The interesting thing is Putin as a moderate, restraining more radical forces in Russia. Pan-Slavism was the ideology in late nineteenth century Russia and Pan-Russism functions that way today (the belief that Russians are neither Asian nor European, but something different and the Russian Federation must protect the interests and rights of Russians everywhere).
The authors draw some disturbing parallels with August 1914, when the great powers badly misread each others’ intentions. The lesson learned from the Franco-Prussian War of 1870-71 was that the first country to mobilize gains significant and insurmountable advantages. If you believe your opponent is mobilizing, you must mobilize or risk losing the ensuing war. To draw a Cold War analogy, this was sort of a nineteenth century “Launch on Warning” stance. Very destabilizing.
International Affairs theorists of the “realist” school assert that Ukraine is the legitimate satellite of Russia and they were stupid to try to lean toward the West. Putin has smacked them down and the West should leave Ukraine to Putin. This may be unrealistic. The Ukrainians remember that the Russians murdered 3.5 million Ukrainians in the Holodomor. The Ukrainians may be country folk, but they are not stupid and they are not forgetful. The Russians keep insisting that the Maidan Uprising happened at the instigation of the US, which is ludicrous, but it excuses Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A Russian news web page has alleged that four US soldiers in Ukraine have raped two underage Ukrainian girls, but were not prosecuted because the Americans had "diplomatic immunity."
Bottom line: we had better tread carefully. How they view what we do is different from how we view it. How they view what they are doing is very different from how we view it. Real risk of miscalculation.
The interesting thing is Putin as a moderate, restraining more radical forces in Russia. Pan-Slavism was the ideology in late nineteenth century Russia and Pan-Russism functions that way today (the belief that Russians are neither Asian nor European, but something different and the Russian Federation must protect the interests and rights of Russians everywhere).
The authors draw some disturbing parallels with August 1914, when the great powers badly misread each others’ intentions. The lesson learned from the Franco-Prussian War of 1870-71 was that the first country to mobilize gains significant and insurmountable advantages. If you believe your opponent is mobilizing, you must mobilize or risk losing the ensuing war. To draw a Cold War analogy, this was sort of a nineteenth century “Launch on Warning” stance. Very destabilizing.
International Affairs theorists of the “realist” school assert that Ukraine is the legitimate satellite of Russia and they were stupid to try to lean toward the West. Putin has smacked them down and the West should leave Ukraine to Putin. This may be unrealistic. The Ukrainians remember that the Russians murdered 3.5 million Ukrainians in the Holodomor. The Ukrainians may be country folk, but they are not stupid and they are not forgetful. The Russians keep insisting that the Maidan Uprising happened at the instigation of the US, which is ludicrous, but it excuses Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A Russian news web page has alleged that four US soldiers in Ukraine have raped two underage Ukrainian girls, but were not prosecuted because the Americans had "diplomatic immunity."
Bottom line: we had better tread carefully. How they view what we do is different from how we view it. How they view what they are doing is very different from how we view it. Real risk of miscalculation.
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Who, the Russians?
There is an international affairs concept called "the security dilemma." Country A buys a new piece of kit, just to modernize their armed forces. Neighboring Country B, concerned about the weapons modernization, undertakes its own weapons buying program. Country A, which has no aggressive intentions of its own, is concerned by Country B's sudden weapons buy. "What are they up to? We need to keep up with the Jones and buy more weapons of our own." And so on.
At the end of the Cold War, the West gave the Russians a bunch of security guarantees (no NATO forces stationed west of Germany, and, in pursuit of transparency, NATO invited Russia to send military officers to hang out in the NATO military headquarters, for example).
The Russians have asserted that they want to rebuild the Soviet Union, after a fashion, which is okay, as long as the other republics have a say in the matter. If Kazakhstan wants to join a reformed Soviet Union, so be it. But the Russians fostered a separatist wars in Nagorno-Karabakh region of Armenia, the Trans-Dniestria region of Moldova, invaded Georgia in 2008, have invaded eastern Ukraine in 2014. When NATO responds to those provocations, who is to blame if Russia feels isolated and surrounded? The primary responsibility for Russian isolation is Russian behavior. They have been jerks to those around them.
I believe he meant the Ukrainians. I missed this link in the Crimea thread. However, it's appropriate to bring it back up, in view of continuing events...
It is a worthwhile article.
All parties need to tread very carefully.
The irony is that the one thing that has all but guaranteed that Ukraine will end up solidly in the Western camp is Putin's actions.
On 9 April 2015, the Ukrainian rada passed a law to obliterate monuments tying Ukraine to the Soviet Union.
This is not going to make a rapprochement with the Russian separatists any easier.
Whatever comes out of this conflict, it will not be a more Russia-friendly Ukraine.
Well, since we have such a solid history of understanding other world-views and therefore avoiding massive mistakes, I'm not worried one bit.
A fair point. This opponent, however, has thousands of nuclear warheads, so the risks of getting it wrong are considerably higher.
I did mean the Ukrainians. Thanks.
I did read the article when posted on the other thread. I agree that the end result will not be a Russia friendly Ukraine. Whether or not we cross Putin's red line and get them in NATO is another matter. I don't see it happening any time soon. Like I said. It seems they have no true friends.
Life has dealt the Ukrainians some tough cards.
I also do not see NATO membership for Ukraine.
One irony is that, if Lugansk and Donetsk gain their independence, what is left of Ukraine will be substantially more anti-Russian than Ukraine would have been with these two still in the country. This may be weighing on Putin's mind as he debates what to do in the Donbass.
In being worried about "enemies" encroaching on Russia's near abroad, Putin may have successfully created an implacable enemy on his doorstep.
True, and that goes to bolster my earlier comments that Putin is a tactician, although a brilliant one, arguably, but he is no part of a strategist. I'm not sure the Russian public even would allow a strategist...
I have read some interesting things about how Russia's leadershiip manipulates images and information generally.
One liberal critic said that soon Russia will have more blocked IP addresses than ones that are allowed. The Russian people used to show that they knew what was going on. The two major newspapers in Moscow were Pravda ["Truth"] and Izvestia ["News,"]. Soviet citizens used to joke that there was no news in Truth and no truth in News.
Nowadays, polling data suggests that Russians seem to accept uncritically what the regime is putting out ("NATO & the US are trying to encircle Russia with enemies and make Russia a vassal state." "NATO is encroaching on Russia so they can attack it.")
The sad thing is that for a couple of decades Russia had a very benign western Europe that bent over backwards not to appear threatening to Russia and a couple of very understanding US Presidents. They have created an situation in which they are unlikely to have such a benign environment in the near future.
As I've said before, that's what happens when you have a KGB man heading up the government. What would anyone expect? I shuddered when I saw he'd made his way to the top. Intel-type people are not known for being strategist. Not their job...
Putin's strategic thinking only makes sense when viewed from the perspective of keeping Putin in power. Putin is all about Putin. He has hurt Russia a lot with his policies. Fortunately for him, Russia is probably the best country in the world for the populace taking crap off of their leaders if their leaders can convince the people that it is making Russia powerful.
Heck, those people fought for Stalin, for Pete's sake. Stalin killed more Russians than anybody in history.
This may be not very significant, but, on the other hand, it may be quite significant.
Russian farmers refuse to sell grain to the Russian government in exchange for rubles.
The article is in Russian, but the for curious, you can use google translate and get the gist. Rubles are simply not a good store of value.
This might be the beginning of something very bad.
Russian farmers refuse to sell grain to the Russian government in exchange for rubles.
The article is in Russian, but the for curious, you can use google translate and get the gist. Rubles are simply not a good store of value.
This might be the beginning of something very bad.
Not good for them. How the Putin government reacts to this could get interesting. One friend over there is relating this to what happened when the USSR fell, and that something like this was a precursor. He told me that trying to forget the past causes Russians to repeat it at a higher rate than other places. He is worried that they could get even more authoritarian.
That seems to be a recurring theme over there, because I have read other Russians make exactly that comparison: 1991=2015? Or 1917=2015?
With Putin in the vozhd's seat, as opposed to Gorbachev, a tolerant thoughtful response from the central authorities is less likely. Vladimir Vladimirovich is more likely to crack some skulls. Who knows where that will lead.
Putin's immediate problem is the price of oil.
One fix for that is an ISIS / Iranian / Iraqi missle into Tel Aviv. Oil goes to $150 a barrel overnight. Economic and currency problem solved.
I wouldn't put it past Putin to arrange something like that. Man's crazy and has dictatorial power. Really bad combination if / when he feels cornered.
One fix for that is an ISIS / Iranian / Iraqi missle into Tel Aviv. Oil goes to $150 a barrel overnight. Economic and currency problem solved.
I wouldn't put it past Putin to arrange something like that. Man's crazy and has dictatorial power. Really bad combination if / when he feels cornered.
That particular friend once told me that they shrug shoulders at each there as much as we wave to each other here. I thought that both funny and sad.
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