Who, the Russians?Lots of mistrust, some earned and some unearned out there.
I really feel for those people. They have never seem to have had any really true friends, and have been constantly trampled over and misused.
I believe he meant the Ukrainians. I missed this link in the Crimea thread. However, it's appropriate to bring it back up, in view of continuing events...Who, the Russians?
There is an international affairs concept called "the security dilemma." Country A buys a new piece of kit, just to modernize their armed forces. Neighboring Country B, concerned about the weapons modernization, undertakes its own weapons buying program. Country A, which has no aggressive intentions of its own, is concerned by Country B's sudden weapons buy. "What are they up to? We need to keep up with the Jones and buy more weapons of our own." And so on.
At the end of the Cold War, the West gave the Russians a bunch of security guarantees (no NATO forces stationed west of Germany, and, in pursuit of transparency, NATO invited Russia to send military officers to hang out in the NATO military headquarters, for example).
The Russians have asserted that they want to rebuild the Soviet Union, after a fashion, which is okay, as long as the other republics have a say in the matter. If Kazakhstan wants to join a reformed Soviet Union, so be it. But the Russians fostered a separatist wars in Nagorno-Karabakh region of Armenia, the Trans-Dniestria region of Moldova, invaded Georgia in 2008, have invaded eastern Ukraine in 2014. When NATO responds to those provocations, who is to blame if Russia feels isolated and surrounded? The primary responsibility for Russian isolation is Russian behavior. They have been jerks to those around them.
It is a worthwhile article.I believe he meant the Ukrainians. I missed this link in the Crimea thread. However, it's appropriate to bring it back up, in view of continuing events...
Well, since we have such a solid history of understanding other world-views and therefore avoiding massive mistakes, I'm not worried one bit.Bottom line: we had better tread carefully. How they view what we do is different from how we view it. How they view what they are doing is very different from how we view it. Real risk of miscalculation.
A fair point. This opponent, however, has thousands of nuclear warheads, so the risks of getting it wrong are considerably higher.Well, since we have such a solid history of understanding other world-views and therefore avoiding massive mistakes, I'm not worried one bit.
I did mean the Ukrainians. Thanks.I believe he meant the Ukrainians. I missed this link in the Crimea thread. However, it's appropriate to bring it back up, in view of continuing events...
Life has dealt the Ukrainians some tough cards.I did mean the Ukrainians. Thanks.
I did read the article when posted on the other thread. I agree that the end result will not be a Russia friendly Ukraine. Whether or not we cross Putin's red line and get them in NATO is another matter. I don't see it happening any time soon. Like I said. It seems they have no true friends.
True, and that goes to bolster my earlier comments that Putin is a tactician, although a brilliant one, arguably, but he is no part of a strategist. I'm not sure the Russian public even would allow a strategist...Life has dealt the Ukrainians some tough cards.
I also do not see NATO membership for Ukraine.
One irony is that, if Lugansk and Donetsk gain their independence, what is left of Ukraine will be substantially more anti-Russian than Ukraine would have been with these two still in the country. This may be weighing on Putin's mind as he debates what to do in the Donbass.
In being worried about "enemies" encroaching on Russia's near abroad, Putin may have successfully created an implacable enemy on his doorstep.
I have read some interesting things about how Russia's leadershiip manipulates images and information generally.True, and that goes to bolster my earlier comments that Putin is a tactician, although a brilliant one, arguably, but he is no part of a strategist. I'm not sure the Russian public even would allow a strategist...
As I've said before, that's what happens when you have a KGB man heading up the government. What would anyone expect? I shuddered when I saw he'd made his way to the top. Intel-type people are not known for being strategist. Not their job...I have read some interesting things about how Russia's leadershiip manipulates images and information generally.
One liberal critic said that soon Russia will have more blocked IP addresses than ones that are allowed. The Russian people used to show that they knew what was going on. The two major newspapers in Moscow were Pravda ["Truth"] and Izvestia ["News,"]. Soviet citizens used to joke that there was no news in Truth and no truth in News.
Nowadays, polling data suggests that Russians seem to accept uncritically what the regime is putting out ("NATO & the US are trying to encircle Russia with enemies and make Russia a vassal state." "NATO is encroaching on Russia so they can attack it.")
The sad thing is that for a couple of decades Russia had a very benign western Europe that bent over backwards not to appear threatening to Russia and a couple of very understanding US Presidents. They have created an situation in which they are unlikely to have such a benign environment in the near future.
Putin's strategic thinking only makes sense when viewed from the perspective of keeping Putin in power. Putin is all about Putin. He has hurt Russia a lot with his policies. Fortunately for him, Russia is probably the best country in the world for the populace taking crap off of their leaders if their leaders can convince the people that it is making Russia powerful.As I've said before, that's what happens when you have a KGB man heading up the government. What would anyone expect? I shuddered when I saw he'd made his way to the top. Intel-type people are not known for being strategist. Not their job...
You just defined a tactician...Putin's strategic thinking only makes sense when viewed from the perspective of keeping Putin in power. Putin is all about Putin. He has hurt Russia a lot with his policies. Fortunately for him, Russia is probably the best country in the world for the populace taking crap off of their leaders if their leaders can convince the people that it is making Russia powerful.
Heck, those people fought for Stalin, for Pete's sake. Stalin killed more Russians than anybody in history.
Not good for them. How the Putin government reacts to this could get interesting. One friend over there is relating this to what happened when the USSR fell, and that something like this was a precursor. He told me that trying to forget the past causes Russians to repeat it at a higher rate than other places. He is worried that they could get even more authoritarian.This may be not very significant, but, on the other hand, it may be quite significant.
Russian farmers refuse to sell grain to the Russian government in exchange for rubles.
The article is in Russian, but the for curious, you can use google translate and get the gist. Rubles are simply not a good store of value.
This might be the beginning of something very bad.
That seems to be a recurring theme over there, because I have read other Russians make exactly that comparison: 1991=2015? Or 1917=2015?Not good for them. How the Putin government reacts to this could get interesting. One friend over there is relating this to what happened when the USSR fell, and that something like this was a precursor. He told me that trying to forget the past causes Russians to repeat it at a higher rate than other places. He is worried that they could get even more authoritarian.
That particular friend once told me that they shrug shoulders at each there as much as we wave to each other here. I thought that both funny and sad.That seems to be a recurring theme over there, because I have read other Russians make exactly that comparison: 1991=2015? Or 1917=2015?
With Putin in the vozhd's seat, as opposed to Gorbachev, a tolerant thoughtful response from the central authorities is less likely. Vladimir Vladimirovich is more likely to crack some skulls. Who knows where that will lead.