IMO, Saban will select who gives Bama the best chance to win this year with no regard to next year and that's how it should be IMO. There won't be a fine point put on it such as "clearly". Many others have pointed out the success of new vs returning QB starters. Coach Saban has done a spectacular job with his selections thus far. Has not made even a slight mistake that I can see with some difficult choices.
Also, anyone who deems last year a failure (SEC champs, playoff participant, wins over A&M, UT, LSU, AU) is ungrateful and unreasonable. It could have been great but it was a good year. And Blake Sims was a joy and a wonder. Again that SEC championship was sweet. I'm still irritated that Bama did not get it in 2011.
When I was a kid (60s and 70s) I used to ignore SECCs, it was NC or bust, like the immature do now, but that has changed and they are even more difficult and more valuable now.