Auburn winning the west?

Rama Jama · Jun 25, 2015

Last years game was much more about us than them. They essentially threw several ball up for grabs and our DB's never made a play. We gave up almost as much offense in the last 3 games as well did in the rest of the season. We had very little rush and I think that will change this year. I think we'll be much more aggressive defensively because we now have the players to do so. Our DB's won't have to cover as long when a QB is running for his life.

We'll find out about the boogs early. If they beat Louisville soundly, then I think they may at least be in competition in the west. If they lose, I think they will lose 3 or 4 games.

BamaInBham · Jun 25, 2015

stlimprov said:
To give the devil his due, Malzahn's offense is predicated on creating those long, freaky plays. You can't just say "Oh, except for those, it is not big deal."
I think his approach to first downs, for example, is that as long as he gets 10 yards in 1/3 plays, they keep rolling. He'll take two no gains and one 10 yard gain (that might be a tackle from being a touchdown) every time. Run a lot of plays that are fairly simple but include opportunities for multiple reads, looking to identify one missed assignment/read and blow that up. In theory, the guy making the reads only has to get 1/3 right (so long as the misses aren't catastrophic).
The contrast to this would be that an offense that gains 3.4 (2.6 if they never punt) yards on every play may not be dazzling, but will never be stopped. Malzahn's offense isn't designed to gain 3.4 yards on a play. In fact, it may not even care all that much about first downs. Consider this approach: if a typical offense runs 70 plays per game, 4 scores is one per 17.5 plays. If my offense gains 0 yards 16 times, but scores on the other play, I'm ahead of pace. If I can run 80 plays instead of 70, I only have to have one score per 20 plays. If you can sell it to your players that way, I'll bet most believe they can make a big play one out of 17 or 20 times.
I'm not saying there can't be some problems with that, but that I think his offense is built around creating freaky plays, so you can't just write them off.

I understand the offensive concept, but Malzahn was not depending on the safety to botch an easy int that turned into a fluke 60 yd TD because he was too injured to raise his arm. Or another very simple blown coverages because the safety who knows he has no help goes for the fake and gives up a 70 yd TD (please don't tell me that was their plan because it was the only such blown coverage all year by this terrific player 2009). These are the kind of "fluky" plays I'm talking about.

Btw, I'm not trying to ignore CGM's ability, just trying to bring a little balance.

RTR91 · Jun 25, 2015

BamaInBham said:
I understand the offensive concept, but Malzahn was not depending on the safety to botch an easy int that turned into a fluke 60 yd TD because he was too injured to raise his arm. Or another very simple blown coverages because the safety who knows he has no help goes for the fake and gives up a 70 yd TD (please don't tell me that was their plan because it was the only such blown coverage all year by this terrific player 2009). These are the kind of "fluky" plays I'm talking about.

Btw, I'm not trying to ignore CGM's ability, just trying to bring a little balance.

IOW, his offense is like any other offense - make the defense make mistakes and capitalize.

BamaInBham · Jun 25, 2015

GrayTide said:
Ellis Johnson was the major problem with auburn's defense. He is the most overrated DC in recent college football history. Yes CWM will be a big upgrade and in spite of what just about everybody on here believes, auburn does have defensive talent, not our level talent, but enough that with better coaching they could win the West.

All the other teams in the SEC have closed the gap on Alabama and CNS. The SEC West is no longer Alabama first and the other 6 teams playing for the #2 spot.

It was never Bama and the six dwarfs. LSU has been a legit threat all along and from time to time so has Ark and AU. Bama lost 3 SEC games 5 years ago, the only time they've lost more than one in the past 7 years. Bama only won 1 SEC title and 2 Division titles in Saban's first 5 years. Bama has won or tied for the last 3 Division titles and has won 2 of its 3 SEC championships during this 7 year run in the last 3 years. Things are pretty much the same - a struggle every year with Bama having great success almost every year. Sure AU, as well as others can win the West, they've done it 3 of the last 7 years.

BamaInBham · Jun 25, 2015

RTR91 said:
IOW, his offense is like any other offense - make the defense make mistakes and capitalize.

Hardly. If your offense is dependent upon an injured player blowing an int and turning it into a TD, you are going to be a failure. You could make a case for the 2nd scenario, but even that one is shaky. I know the kind of mistakes you are talking about and that is legitimate, but these are not those kind, IMO. There is a lot of luck/"good fortune" in sports and that's how I would characterize those 2 examples, but you can't depend on it. You can depend on putting a player in a dilemma and he makes an error or you take advantage of a CB's tendency to bite, but not the 2 examples I gave.

RTR91 · Jun 25, 2015

BamaInBham said:
Hardly. If your offense is dependent upon an injured player blowing an int and turning it into a TD, you are going to be a failure. You could make a case for the 2nd scenario, but even that one is shaky. I know the kind of mistakes you are talking about and that is legitimate, but these are not those kind, IMO. There is a lot of luck/"good fortune" in sports and that's how I would characterize those 2 examples, but you can't depend on it. You can depend on putting a player in a dilemma and he makes an error or you take advantage of a CB's tendency to bite, but not the 2 examples I gave.

When you say an offense depends on something, you're saying it only succeeds when that thing happens. How many times has Auburn's offense faced a situation like Mark Barron's injured shoulder? Now, compare that to Auburn's offense's number of successes. Still think the offense depends on it?

selmaborntidefan · Jun 25, 2015

If we're going to rehash the 2010 Iron Bowl, let's at least not focus solely upon Mark Barron's injury. We should have been up 42-0 at the half instead of 24-7.

If we're up 42-0, Barron's injury means nothing. That bizarre Mark Ingram fumble skip and the Greg McElroy fumble (and I believe Trent dropped a TD right in his hands)......oh geez, I've never been able to watch that game again.

And who would want to?

As far as Auburn......we can scream hysterical about their "luck" all we want, but they have to be good enough to be close enough for that one lucky play to matter. Both times they've beaten us since 2007, WE HAVE BEATEN OURSELVES with stupid play calling and turnovers and failure to capitalize on our own successes. Yes, Auburn has not given up but my goodness....how many times do we get inside their ten and do something stupid?

If we had won in 2010 - seriously - NOBODY nationally would consider Auburn a threat at all. That national championship made them bigger as it always does. And it's OUR fault - if we had taken care of business in 2010 (2013 doesn't really matter since they didn't win) and been up 42-0 at the half, we would still be hearing Auburn partisans cry in their milk about "the only reason we lost was because two of our D linemen missed the first half."

(Like we made those guys punch the UGA players.....)

81usaf92 · Jun 25, 2015

selmaborntidefan said:
If we're going to rehash the 2010 Iron Bowl, let's at least not focus solely upon Mark Barron's injury. We should have been up 42-0 at the half instead of 24-7.

If we're up 42-0, Barron's injury means nothing. That bizarre Mark Ingram fumble skip and the Greg McElroy fumble (and I believe Trent dropped a TD right in his hands)......oh geez, I've never been able to watch that game again.

And who would want to?

As far as Auburn......we can scream hysterical about their "luck" all we want, but they have to be good enough to be close enough for that one lucky play to matter. Both times they've beaten us since 2007, WE HAVE BEATEN OURSELVES with stupid play calling and turnovers and failure to capitalize on our own successes. Yes, Auburn has not given up but my goodness....how many times do we get inside their ten and do something stupid?

If we had won in 2010 - seriously - NOBODY nationally would consider Auburn a threat at all. That national championship made them bigger as it always does. And it's OUR fault - if we had taken care of business in 2010 (2013 doesn't really matter since they didn't win) and been up 42-0 at the half, we would still be hearing Auburn partisans cry in their milk about "the only reason we lost was because two of our D linemen missed the first half."

(Like we made those guys punch the UGA players.....)

2010 we let them back in it. 2013 we played stupid on offense. Cooper and AJ were unstoppable that dy, but we kept playing for field goals and tried to run with Yeldon. I have said this before, but had we had Lane Kiffin that day we beat them comfortablly.

selmaborntidefan · Jun 25, 2015

81usaf92 said:
2010 we let them back in it. 2013 we played stupid on offense. Cooper and AJ were unstoppable that dy, but we kept playing for field goals and tried to run with Yeldon. I have said this before, but had we had Lane Kiffin that day we beat them comfortablly.

You're dead on right. But it's all water over the barn now.

TheRealPokeChop · Jun 25, 2015

West is kind of open. Lsu is as weak as ever under the hat, the miss schools are as dangerous as ever and Arkansas is gonna ruin somebody's season, maybe ours, maybe auburns, maybe both but someone's. So I'd say it's a fair pick.

CoastGhost · Jun 25, 2015

We'll see if the shine wears off that flipadoodle pee wee offense this year.

BamaInBham · Jun 25, 2015

RTR91 said:
When you say an offense depends on something, you're saying it only succeeds when that thing happens. How many times has Auburn's offense faced a situation like Mark Barron's injured shoulder? Now, compare that to Auburn's offense's number of successes. Still think the offense depends on it?

I will try to shut up and stop our back and forth after trying a final time to clarify my stance

.

I was addressing a specific poster's assertion that "Saban's D struggled mightily with CGM's O". I was not speaking of his O in general but specifically in his first 3 games against Bama where he averaged 265 YPG and 16 PPG. In making my case I referred to these as examples that would have reduced that yardage and points even further. I was not saying that his offense was dependent upon such plays, just that they had been the beneficiary of some VERY unusual and/or fortunate bounces against Bama, the kind you can't depend on.

And just just to be clear: Bama has struggled on D the last 2 years against AU and others; AU, as well as others can win the West as they have 3 times in the past 7 years. However, Bama has not lost more than 1 SEC game but once in the last 7 years and that was 5 years ago. A remarkable feat.

selmaborntidefan · Jun 25, 2015

BamaInBham said:
I will try to shut up and stop our back and forth after trying a final time to clarify my stance .

I was addressing a specific poster's assertion that "Saban's D struggled mightily with CGM's O". I was not speaking of his O in general but specifically in his first 3 games against Bama where he averaged 265 YPG and 16 PPG. In making my case I referred to these as examples that would have reduced that yardage and points even further. I was not saying that his offense was dependent upon such plays, just that they had been the beneficiary of some VERY unusual and/or fortunate bounces against Bama, the kind you can't depend on.

And just just to be clear: Bama has struggled on D the last 2 years against AU and others; AU, as well as others can win the West as they have 3 times in the past 7 years. However, Bama has not lost more than 1 SEC game but once in the last 7 years and that was 5 years ago. A remarkable feat.

I sort of agree with you (and maybe I wasn't following closely enough as I saw snippets).

However, when Colin Cowherd said Malzahn owned the state and would win back-to-back titles, I thought he was silly. Somehow, Gus was great, right?

Well, look at things:

2009 - Auburn PPG 30.8 (scored? 21)
2010 - Auburn PPG 41.2 (scored? 28)
2011 - Auburn PPG 24.9 (scored? 0 on offense)
2013 - Auburn PPG 38.3 (scored? 28 on offense, 34 overall - 13 in the final 31 seconds)
2014 - Auburn PPG 35.8 (scored? 44)

In five matchups against Malzahn "the genius," Saban's D has held them to BELOW AVERAGE four times. Ironically, the only time they did NOT hold them below average, we won - while our record is .500 when we DO hold them below average.

In fact, on three occasions INCLUDING when Cam Newton was at Auburn, Saban held them below average by DOUBLE DIGITS.

Now I know the immediate objection so I'll have to consider it - "but you can't use that stat because teams like Auburn go and hang 54 points on Ball State and 62 on Furman that inflates the overall number."

Ok, that's a fair point. So let's consider how Auburn's PPG would be if we consider ONLY SEC games and ranked foes (like the bowl game or early season games with Clemson for example)

2009: 24.6 ppg (21 - still below)
2010: 41.1 ppg (that's right, they were 41.2 overall and 41.1 against good teams, like 65 on Arky and 51 on Ole Miss)
2011: 23.5 ppg (still below at 0 or at the 14 they got with a defensive and special teams TD apiece)
2013: 35.5 ppg (still below though close at 34)
2014: 33.1 ppg (again, they're ABOVE this for the only time)

In other words, in their five meetings, Saban has held Malzahn BELOW his ppg FOUR TIMES and again by double digits though only twice. (This stat also shows that Auburn does about the same ppg-wise against the full schedule as against the decent foes, which makes sense - after all, after you get up by about 31 on a nobody, you pull the starters).

We've lost twice and the 2009 game was too close for some comfort but then again.....Auburn had OFF WEEKS in 2009, 2010, and 2013. One could just as easily argue their close wins were due to being RESTED.

81usaf92 · Jun 25, 2015

selmaborntidefan said:
I sort of agree with you (and maybe I wasn't following closely enough as I saw snippets).

However, when Colin Cowherd said Malzahn owned the state and would win back-to-back titles, I thought he was silly. Somehow, Gus was great, right?

Well, look at things:

2009 - Auburn PPG 30.8 (scored? 21)
2010 - Auburn PPG 41.2 (scored? 28)
2011 - Auburn PPG 24.9 (scored? 0 on offense)
2013 - Auburn PPG 38.3 (scored? 28 on offense, 34 overall - 13 in the final 31 seconds)
2014 - Auburn PPG 35.8 (scored? 44)

In five matchups against Malzahn "the genius," Saban's D has held them to BELOW AVERAGE four times. Ironically, the only time they did NOT hold them below average, we won - while our record is .500 when we DO hold them below average.

In fact, on three occasions INCLUDING when Cam Newton was at Auburn, Saban held them below average by DOUBLE DIGITS.

Now I know the immediate objection so I'll have to consider it - "but you can't use that stat because teams like Auburn go and hang 54 points on Ball State and 62 on Furman that inflates the overall number."

Ok, that's a fair point. So let's consider how Auburn's PPG would be if we consider ONLY SEC games and ranked foes (like the bowl game or early season games with Clemson for example)

2009: 24.6 ppg (21 - still below)
2010: 41.1 ppg (that's right, they were 41.2 overall and 41.1 against good teams, like 65 on Arky and 51 on Ole Miss)
2011: 23.5 ppg (still below at 0 or at the 14 they got with a defensive and special teams TD apiece)
2013: 35.5 ppg (still below though close at 34)
2014: 33.1 ppg (again, they're ABOVE this for the only time)

In other words, in their five meetings, Saban has held Malzahn BELOW his ppg FOUR TIMES and again by double digits though only twice. (This stat also shows that Auburn does about the same ppg-wise against the full schedule as against the decent foes, which makes sense - after all, after you get up by about 31 on a nobody, you pull the starters).

We've lost twice and the 2009 game was too close for some comfort but then again.....Auburn had OFF WEEKS in 2009, 2010, and 2013. One could just as easily argue their close wins were due to being RESTED.

I still go back to my sumlin and Spurrier argument. People love to proclaim ________ is the next _________. Its like Brady is the next Montana, Lebron is the next Jordan, or Kershaw is the next whoever. Cowherd is making the case that Malzahn is the next Spurier in that he is going to light up these dinosaur teams and take the country by storm. My problem is that he had basically the same aura that Sumlin had going into to his second season with a similar result. One season doesnt mean he will be continously like that. I think we will know how good Gus really is after this year.

TiderJack · Jun 25, 2015

81usaf92 said:
I still go back to my sumlin and Spurrier argument. People love to proclaim ________ is the next _________. Its like Brady is the next Montana, Lebron is the next Jordan, or Kershaw is the next whoever. Cowherd is making the case that Malzahn is the next Spurier in that he is going to light up these dinosaur teams and take the country by storm. My problem is that he had basically the same aura that Sumlin had going into to his second season with a similar result. One season doesnt mean he will be continously like that. I think we will know how good Gus really is after this year.

I agree. If things get off to a bad start which is possible with the Barn schedule things can go south in a hurry and the "family" will start rumbling big time.

Redwood Forrest · Jun 25, 2015

Auburn has a .454 winning percentage when on the road since 2010. They play, on the road, LSU, Miss St, Arkansas, Mississippi and Texas A&M. That does not bode well for the goobers.

BamaMoon · Jun 25, 2015

Let me sum this up yall. I think until we field a defensive secondary that stops the Barns hail mary offense Gus will keep throwing it up for grabs.

Enter Mr. Tucker working with CNS and hopefully a few young studs in our secondary stops that stuff.

Now yall carry on!

GrayTide · Jun 25, 2015

Redwood Forrest said:
Auburn has a .454 winning percentage when on the road since 2010. They play, on the road, LSU, Miss St, Arkansas, Mississippi and Texas A&M. That does not bode well for the goobers.

They play Ole Miss and MSU @ auburn, their other road game is at UK.

selmaborntidefan · Jun 25, 2015

Redwood Forrest said:
Auburn has a .454 winning percentage when on the road since 2010. They play, on the road, LSU, Miss St, Arkansas, Mississippi and Texas A&M. That does not bode well for the goobers.

Except you're counting when Chizik was head coach (which includes a year Malzahn was not there) and conflating two nealry unrelated sets of stats.

2011: 1-4
2012: 0-5

(1-9)

2013: 3-1
2014: 3-2

Malzahn is 6-3 as head coach and 7-7 overall if you want to include his OC days post-Cam.

He's won at Kyle Field, Neyland, Arkansas, Kansas State, and Ole Miss.

On the other hand, he's 4-4 against ranked teams on the road so....

Redwood Forrest · Jun 26, 2015

selmaborntidefan said:
Except you're counting when Chizik was head coach (which includes a year Malzahn was not there) and conflating two nealry unrelated sets of stats.

2011: 1-4
2012: 0-5

(1-9)

2013: 3-1
2014: 3-2

Malzahn is 6-3 as head coach and 7-7 overall if you want to include his OC days post-Cam.

He's won at Kyle Field, Neyland, Arkansas, Kansas State, and Ole Miss.

On the other hand, he's 4-4 against ranked teams on the road so....

You know what they say about stats, they're for losers

I was just pointing out that some teams don't do well on the road and some don't do well at home. Just because someone like A&M has a loaded home schedule doesn't mean much when they suck at home.

Interesting that Alabama and Missouri play equally well at home or on the road. I did a 2010-2014 on SEC teams and didn't figure in ranked or unranked.

Auburn winning the west?

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