Mostly we think of the Power Four absorbing the Big 12 and becoming 16 member conferences. But what if the MWC decided to add 4 Power 5 teams, or AAC invited Baylor, Texas Tech, TCU and Iowa St to join and they accepted. Would the AAC now be a Power Five conference with 16 teams?
Lets assume that the Big 12 dies off soon
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I had not thought of that :smile: I was thinking of Texas, Oklahoma, Okie Lite and Kansas leaving. That would put the remaining 6 teams having to adopt 6 Group of 5 teams. It might be easier for them just to join the MWC or the AAC. It will be the same anyway, just different names.
In that event they'd have little choice. It'd be like rats leaving a sinking ship! It's fun to talk about in the off season but I hope we are done with realignment. The stick that keeps stirring the unrest is Texas. If we could only expel them from college football.
I didn't think the Big XII was going to fall apart last time when we took A&M and Missouri. So let's not write their obituary yet.
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I think you are spot on. Another question would be : who makes the first move and does that move create a sense of urgency by the other conferences to land the best teams possible? Is the magical number 12, 14 or 16? Is it possible that Big XII could actually add 2 teams and realign into divisions like they were before? The issue with 16 teams, assuming another conference game is not added, is in the SEC a team would play its 7 divisional foes and its cross division rival so we would never play an SEC East team unless it was in the SECC game.
I think the next move will be the Big 10 moving to 16 teams. I think the most likely schools would be Virginia and Kansas (taking into account academics, geography and TV sets). This would not cause the Big 12 to fold, but would cause the SEC to think seriously about matching the Big 10. I think the most logical states for SEC expansion are North Carolina and Virginia. Virginia Tech would be an obvious choice for the state of Virginia, but I can't see North Carolina joining the SEC. They are too focused on basketball and their rivalry with Duke. And even with Kentucky and North Carolina, basketball will always be a distant 2nd to football in the SEC. Would the SEC ever consider North Carolina State?
Assuming the Big Ten does indeed get Virginia (far from a given, IMO, because Virginia has contingent that is still very much southern from a cultural perspective) and that North Carolina is out of play due to their desire to remain in the ACC with Duke, then I think NC State would be a solid addition. In fact, I think they would be better than Virginia Tech for a variety of reasons.
But getting NC State and Virginia Tech gets you all of the tv sets in Virginia and North Carolina, even if they aren't the main teams in that state. Like has been pointed out, you get the tv sets whether folks are watching or not. It's based upon cable subscriptions.
Good post. Any school that joins will gain the advantage of being that states representative in the SEC. It has been really huge for South Carolina who was really nothing before and A&M who in my opinion has removed itself from the shadow of Texas in a big way. It'd be like winning the lottery for NC State.
Well, if we agreed on everything there wouldn't be anything left to discuss would there? I enjoy discussing certain things, and I think there's a lot to be learned through discussion. I try to be impersonal when discussing something, and while my disagreement might be strong on some issues, it doesn't mean I think less of someone because of it.
Anyway, Notre Dame kind of goes against my basic premise that the SEC has all the football powers it needs. So, that alone is reason enough to question my support of adding Notre Dame. I just see Notre Dame as a special case, and a part of the SEC's battle with the Big 10 for supremacy. So far the SEC has gained ground, but that's what they did, they gained ground. The Big 10 has been richer and more powerful for a long time and the SEC is just now starting to pull even, a final round of expansion might determine who holds the top spot for years to come.
Notre Dame always gets a seat at the table, even in the playoffs they were afforded one. They hold more power than they should, they get more respect than they should, but if they are a (full) member of either the Big 10 or the SEC, they will bring a lot of influence with them. The SEC has looked inept politically, trying to get rules passed that they can't, almost getting completely railroaded in the playoff creation. For all their on field prowess, they're still not respected politically, and honestly to me adding Notre Dame would be a political move.
Having said that, it should only be as a full and equal member, and the chances of that are terribly low. I don't think it will happen, I don't think it should happen otherwise, but if the SEC gained Notre Dame, they'd be keeping them away from the Big 10 and would make major inroads into Big 10 territory as well. If nothing else, I think the SEC making it known that Notre Dame would be welcome might keep them from making a premature jump to the Big 10. Anyway, I get your hesitation though, it's an odd, unlikely potential pairing that could easily go wrong.
To re-frame the entire discussion some, here's the top licensing sales, I think this adds some context to one aspect of what we've been discussing (mind you, this includes about 200 universities, not all):
https://www.clc.com/News/Annual-Rankings-2013-14.aspx
The first thing you can take from this is how great the SEC did on their latest expansion. They brought in two strong brands (9/19) and with those two schools they gained over 30 million in population. The Big 10 added 3 schools (13,43,53), less TV sets and weaker brands. They have the strongest network though, so it shows how much raw value they place on TV sets alone with their last addition.
By looking at the list you can easily see the top targets and really the programs holding the weaker conferences together. Texas 1/Oklahoma 12, FSU 8/North Carolina 10, and Notre Dame at 4. Those are the major players. For instance, there was some talk of FSU and Clemson heading to the Big 12 when they get upset with the new TV deal. I don't know if that was all talk, or if the silly 10 team Big 12 nonsense was an obstacle, but had it happened the Big 12 would have become rock solid again, and the ACC would have been on life support.
Anyway, from the SEC's perspective Texas and FSU are redundant, the SEC is already in those states. That really just leaves Notre Dame, North Carolina, and Oklahoma as top brand targets. Indiana has 6.5 million, North Carolina has 9.9 million, Oklahoma has 3.8 million. You can see why, potential football issues aside, Oklahoma is far less attractive than those other two programs. The real question then becomes do you value a 30 Duke or a 44 Virginia over a 12 Oklahoma? I think if you look at what motivated the richest conference with the most network data, you'd have to say that TV sets are more important than the brand.
There's a bit more to be gathered from that though, and that's the potential downfall of some brands. I wish all were listed, but you see the SEC's worst, Vanderbilt at 56. They to me show what you don't want to do, you want want their level of football attendance, you don't want a brand that weak. You want something better than that. But, look at Georgia Tech, they're sitting at 50. They used to be one of the SEC's best, so it shows that a brand can become seriously eroded. Or look at Colorado, there was a time they were playing for titles. 49th is pretty sad. So, a brand isn't something that is guaranteed in the long run, they can rise and fall of course. So, the brand is a big plus, but I don't think it can be the main factor for any addition.
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In terms of getting two from the ACC to come over to the SEC, I think it highly unlikely that UNC or Duke would break due to their rivalry that has already pointed out here. Also, they would view it as an insult to their academic status. (Trust me - I've lived here for almost 50yrs. As for NC St, that might fly except they also have a rivalry with UNC that would hard for many to lose. Football wise Clemson makes a lot of sense, but why in the world would they want to give up the gig they have with only F$U to beat?
So I would say Va Tech and here is a wild card (not a member of the ACC) East Carolina. They are football crazy and would have everything to gain and are not that far off in terms of competing.
So I would say Va Tech and here is a wild card (not a member of the ACC) East Carolina. They are football crazy and would have everything to gain and are not that far off in terms of competing.
Sorry, I would not want Notre Dame in the SEC.
Here's why. In the SEC, we are da man, the mac daddy, the king of the hill. No other program carries our prestige in the league's premier sport. Even in our down years, we still carry a lot of weight. No one rivals our tradition. We have a national draw the others respect and envy.
If Notre Dame joins, we lose that stature. I'm not saying we'd slip to #2, but we wouldn't be a sure fire #1 in that respect. They have a national aura that got them their own network deal and lets them remain an independent.
Yes, they are not on our level right now. But they still get people excited when they are brought up.
If you want to sacrifice our stature for the almighty market share, that's your right. But that is not an SEC world I want to live in.
I'm probably in the minority, but bringing in quality football trumps TV households to me. so I'd take Oklahoma over North Carolina.
Here's why. In the SEC, we are da man, the mac daddy, the king of the hill. No other program carries our prestige in the league's premier sport. Even in our down years, we still carry a lot of weight. No one rivals our tradition. We have a national draw the others respect and envy.
If Notre Dame joins, we lose that stature. I'm not saying we'd slip to #2, but we wouldn't be a sure fire #1 in that respect. They have a national aura that got them their own network deal and lets them remain an independent.
Yes, they are not on our level right now. But they still get people excited when they are brought up.
If you want to sacrifice our stature for the almighty market share, that's your right. But that is not an SEC world I want to live in.
I'm probably in the minority, but bringing in quality football trumps TV households to me. so I'd take Oklahoma over North Carolina.
Yes it is fun, especially during the off season. I don't mind if it continues, just as long as the expansion/shrinkage is in the Group of 5 where it doesn't matter so much. I would like to see the Big 12 get two more and then have it all settle down for a few years.
Missouri and aTm broke up some huge rivalries and are profiting a lot more for it. I don't think expansion happens but I think if it does the sec will look east if it does
Of course we are talking hypotheticals here, but UNC and Duke will not separate...0% chance. On the other topic...4 super conferences makes a lot more sense than 5. Unless the Big 12 adds teams, which is highly unlikely, and has a conference championship game I believe they are history.
The playoff is going to be 8 sooner than later, because of the $$$$ versus what's best for the game IMHO
Clemson is redundant though, but... I could see NC State or East Carolina, if push comes to shove. But why should it? Yes, UNC is a long shot, but the SEC can stay at 14, they can sit and wait for something to happen, worst case they pick up a VT or lesser program in North Carolina, right? So, there's really nothing that can go wrong with waiting for the situation to evolve.
You know, I really was with you. I can relate to the risk of bringing in a program that could unseat things. But that last part? After all that you advocate for Oklahoma? Look, Notre Dame would be in the East, Oklahoma would be in the West. You tell me which program would pose a more direct threat to Alabama? Notre Dame is worth way more than Oklahoma financially and poses a less direct threat in my opinion. Oklahoma wouldn't join the SEC to be a wallflower. Alabama is #1 all time, Notre Dame is #2, and Oklahoma is #4. I agree, Notre Dame is a risk, but they're a risk that would be in the other division and at least open up new recruiting territory, along with you know, more money and power for the SEC. Oklahoma would be in the same division, already relies heavily on SEC states for recruits, and offers what again, besides trouble?
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If the Big12 intends to stay together they need to put their foot down. I am certain there are some of them who are antsy about being left behind if they do disband. What does Iowa State have to offer to any other conference, other than cannon fodder? W Virginia is so far out of the loop they are like a foreign country.
If they expand they ought to go on up to 14 teams. Adding Cincy, Memphis, E Carolina, and UCF to Iowa State, W Virginia and Oklahoma would create an East division as well as add lot of those TV sets ~ get Oklahoma and Texas separated.
If they expand they ought to go on up to 14 teams. Adding Cincy, Memphis, E Carolina, and UCF to Iowa State, W Virginia and Oklahoma would create an East division as well as add lot of those TV sets ~ get Oklahoma and Texas separated.
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ND would never go for it. It's not about money for them, it's about pride. They have the clout they do because they're an independent, and aren't tied to a conference. They play whoever they want, whenever they want. If they joined the SEC, they would lose their independent identity. Oklahoma seems more likely, because they're 2nd fiddle to Texas already, and they see how well aTm did by getting out of the shadow of the horns, but didn't all the Big 12 members cede their tertiary TV rights to the conference? I find it hard to believe that it would be financially attractive to any of them to leave for the SEC and pay Texas for the privilege.
The B1G would love it if we took FSU, GT or one of the Texas teams. We'd add more teams capable of beating up on us without adding more TVs. Their model seems to be to take schools with a good academic tradition, but you notice that those schools DON'T present a challenge on the field to any of the power teams in the B1G.
The B1G would love it if we took FSU, GT or one of the Texas teams. We'd add more teams capable of beating up on us without adding more TVs. Their model seems to be to take schools with a good academic tradition, but you notice that those schools DON'T present a challenge on the field to any of the power teams in the B1G.
The Pac 12 will not take a religiously-affiliated school. They've made that abundantly clear in the recent past.
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