That's it. We should not even prepare for the season and for go two a days. [emoji12]
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Let me research my mental memory here:Has auburn ever won the SEC when they were considered the favorite?
Well stated. I can't for the life of me figure the Auburn Love Fest. Generally not returning the QB is a disadvantage, but not with Auburn. Generally having a lousey D is bad, but not for Aubie. Go figure.Let me research my mental memory here:
1983 - preseason #5 - but Georgia was the beast back then and the SEC favorite pre-SECCG
1984 - preseason #1, lost four games including Iron Bowl
1985 - preseason #2, lost four games including Iron Bowl
1988 - preseason #7, won the SEC
1989 - co-favorites, shared the title
1990 - preseason #3, imploded in November, lost three games (and tied one) including the Iron Bowl
1995 - preseason favorite to win West, lost three games and should have lost the Iron Bowl (the Curtis Brown non-TD)
2001 - preseason favorite to win the West, lost five games including the Iron Bowl
2003 - SEC favorite (and picked to win it all in some polls), lost five games
2006 - preseason favorite to win the West, lost two games (CFN projected a USC-Auburn BCSNCG)
Past trends for what they're worth (which is virtually nothing) suggest that when they're favorites Auburn will lose 3-4 games - usually including the Iron Bowl - and finish between 17 and 22.
Auburn's greatest successes in the past three decades are nearly ALWAYS when nothing is expected of them. Simply look at 1983, 1993, 2004, 2010, and 2013 as examples. Those were the five best Auburn seasons of the last thirty-plus years. Want to know how they started the season ranked?
1983 - #5 (finished #3 but probably the best team in the country that year)
1993 - unranked
2004 - #17
2010 - #21
2013 - unranked
In other words, TWO of their five best years came when nobody took them seriously and they stunned everyone. And let's be honest folks, 1993 was a sick joke. Go look at their schedule. They played EXACTLY TWO teams with winning records all year. They played NO ROAD GAMES against teams with winning records - not one. And their OOC was USM, Samford, and New Mexico St, who had a combined record of 7-15-1 against FBS competition.
The catch where Auburn is concerned is very simple: will the extra official discovering all their razzle-dazzle violations change things? I am of the view that football has been and always will be won by the old school three yards and a cloud of dust. Malzahn seems to me to be a fine coach but guys like he and Briles, who use that high octane, fast break stuff always have lousy defenses. Will Muschamp has an inflated reputation for what his defense is but for the life of me I can't understand why. Muschamp - like a lot of coordinators - runs up impressive numbers statistically against the also-rans of college football. Look at what his vaunted run defense did - #1 in the nation - when they actually played a team that RAN the ball in the BCSNCG.
In the 2009 Iron Bowl, I was working in the lab and trying to catch a peep at the TV. Someone came out and told me Auburn had run a razzle-dazzle play and was up 14-0. I said, "Only teams that can't play straight up run that as much as Auburn. Let's see what happens when they've spent three hours getting hit straight on." And of course that's exactly what happened.
That said - they have eight starters back on a lousy defense and six starters back minus the QB on a pretty high-powered offense. If Ole Miss did not have to play Florida AND Alabama AND Auburn on the road, I'd pick them to win the West because they're returning 17 starters from a 9-4 team that was ranked in the top five and actually did beat Alabama last year. And Arkansas is a threat as they got better late last year.
The winner of the west might well be someone nobody expects. I don't think Auburn is necessarily the favorite, but they have the advantage of their toughest road game in September (LSU) and they get UGA and us at home.
I wouldn't bet on them but I wouldn't bet against them, either.
Yeah but remember that Marshall was a nobody when he took over - now all of a sudden he's "they lost the starting QB." Marshall was the best of a bad bunch.Well stated. I can't for the life of me figure the Auburn Love Fest. Generally not returning the QB is a disadvantage, but not with Auburn. Generally having a lousey D is bad, but not for Aubie. Go figure.
The question regarding MSU will be the fact they've lost a ton of starters. On the other hand, they soared last year and so you have players who are hungry to get it again. We will know by the end of September how good the Dawgs are. They have LSU at home and Auburn on the road among four games. But the flip side is this: the rest of their schedule pre-November is so favorable that MSU could EASILY get to November with a 7-1 record and they have time to get the tough things worked out before hitting the meat of the schedule in November.I agree Bill the winner in the SEC West could easily have two losses. IMO the only West team to rule out right now is MSU. The gap in the West between Alabama, LSU and the other five teams has been closed significantly; we are no longer feared and this is not 2009-2012.