Reporters Pick Auburn To Win SEC But Alabama To Win The West.....

Vinny

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That's it. We should not even prepare for the season and for go two a days. [emoji12]


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selmaborntidefan

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Has auburn ever won the SEC when they were considered the favorite?
Let me research my mental memory here:

1983 - preseason #5 - but Georgia was the beast back then and the SEC favorite pre-SECCG

1984 - preseason #1, lost four games including Iron Bowl

1985 - preseason #2, lost four games including Iron Bowl

1988 - preseason #7, won the SEC

1989 - co-favorites, shared the title

1990 - preseason #3, imploded in November, lost three games (and tied one) including the Iron Bowl

1995 - preseason favorite to win West, lost three games and should have lost the Iron Bowl (the Curtis Brown non-TD)

2001 - preseason favorite to win the West, lost five games including the Iron Bowl

2003 - SEC favorite (and picked to win it all in some polls), lost five games

2006 - preseason favorite to win the West, lost two games (CFN projected a USC-Auburn BCSNCG)


Past trends for what they're worth (which is virtually nothing) suggest that when they're favorites Auburn will lose 3-4 games - usually including the Iron Bowl - and finish between 17 and 22.

Auburn's greatest successes in the past three decades are nearly ALWAYS when nothing is expected of them. Simply look at 1983, 1993, 2004, 2010, and 2013 as examples. Those were the five best Auburn seasons of the last thirty-plus years. Want to know how they started the season ranked?

1983 - #5 (finished #3 but probably the best team in the country that year)
1993 - unranked
2004 - #17
2010 - #21
2013 - unranked

In other words, TWO of their five best years came when nobody took them seriously and they stunned everyone. And let's be honest folks, 1993 was a sick joke. Go look at their schedule. They played EXACTLY TWO teams with winning records all year. They played NO ROAD GAMES against teams with winning records - not one. And their OOC was USM, Samford, and New Mexico St, who had a combined record of 7-15-1 against FBS competition.


The catch where Auburn is concerned is very simple: will the extra official discovering all their razzle-dazzle violations change things? I am of the view that football has been and always will be won by the old school three yards and a cloud of dust. Malzahn seems to me to be a fine coach but guys like he and Briles, who use that high octane, fast break stuff always have lousy defenses. Will Muschamp has an inflated reputation for what his defense is but for the life of me I can't understand why. Muschamp - like a lot of coordinators - runs up impressive numbers statistically against the also-rans of college football. Look at what his vaunted run defense did - #1 in the nation - when they actually played a team that RAN the ball in the BCSNCG.

In the 2009 Iron Bowl, I was working in the lab and trying to catch a peep at the TV. Someone came out and told me Auburn had run a razzle-dazzle play and was up 14-0. I said, "Only teams that can't play straight up run that as much as Auburn. Let's see what happens when they've spent three hours getting hit straight on." And of course that's exactly what happened.

That said - they have eight starters back on a lousy defense and six starters back minus the QB on a pretty high-powered offense. If Ole Miss did not have to play Florida AND Alabama AND Auburn on the road, I'd pick them to win the West because they're returning 17 starters from a 9-4 team that was ranked in the top five and actually did beat Alabama last year. And Arkansas is a threat as they got better late last year.

The winner of the west might well be someone nobody expects. I don't think Auburn is necessarily the favorite, but they have the advantage of their toughest road game in September (LSU) and they get UGA and us at home.

I wouldn't bet on them but I wouldn't bet against them, either.
 

Redwood Forrest

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Let me research my mental memory here:

1983 - preseason #5 - but Georgia was the beast back then and the SEC favorite pre-SECCG

1984 - preseason #1, lost four games including Iron Bowl

1985 - preseason #2, lost four games including Iron Bowl

1988 - preseason #7, won the SEC

1989 - co-favorites, shared the title

1990 - preseason #3, imploded in November, lost three games (and tied one) including the Iron Bowl

1995 - preseason favorite to win West, lost three games and should have lost the Iron Bowl (the Curtis Brown non-TD)

2001 - preseason favorite to win the West, lost five games including the Iron Bowl

2003 - SEC favorite (and picked to win it all in some polls), lost five games

2006 - preseason favorite to win the West, lost two games (CFN projected a USC-Auburn BCSNCG)


Past trends for what they're worth (which is virtually nothing) suggest that when they're favorites Auburn will lose 3-4 games - usually including the Iron Bowl - and finish between 17 and 22.

Auburn's greatest successes in the past three decades are nearly ALWAYS when nothing is expected of them. Simply look at 1983, 1993, 2004, 2010, and 2013 as examples. Those were the five best Auburn seasons of the last thirty-plus years. Want to know how they started the season ranked?

1983 - #5 (finished #3 but probably the best team in the country that year)
1993 - unranked
2004 - #17
2010 - #21
2013 - unranked

In other words, TWO of their five best years came when nobody took them seriously and they stunned everyone. And let's be honest folks, 1993 was a sick joke. Go look at their schedule. They played EXACTLY TWO teams with winning records all year. They played NO ROAD GAMES against teams with winning records - not one. And their OOC was USM, Samford, and New Mexico St, who had a combined record of 7-15-1 against FBS competition.


The catch where Auburn is concerned is very simple: will the extra official discovering all their razzle-dazzle violations change things? I am of the view that football has been and always will be won by the old school three yards and a cloud of dust. Malzahn seems to me to be a fine coach but guys like he and Briles, who use that high octane, fast break stuff always have lousy defenses. Will Muschamp has an inflated reputation for what his defense is but for the life of me I can't understand why. Muschamp - like a lot of coordinators - runs up impressive numbers statistically against the also-rans of college football. Look at what his vaunted run defense did - #1 in the nation - when they actually played a team that RAN the ball in the BCSNCG.

In the 2009 Iron Bowl, I was working in the lab and trying to catch a peep at the TV. Someone came out and told me Auburn had run a razzle-dazzle play and was up 14-0. I said, "Only teams that can't play straight up run that as much as Auburn. Let's see what happens when they've spent three hours getting hit straight on." And of course that's exactly what happened.

That said - they have eight starters back on a lousy defense and six starters back minus the QB on a pretty high-powered offense. If Ole Miss did not have to play Florida AND Alabama AND Auburn on the road, I'd pick them to win the West because they're returning 17 starters from a 9-4 team that was ranked in the top five and actually did beat Alabama last year. And Arkansas is a threat as they got better late last year.

The winner of the west might well be someone nobody expects. I don't think Auburn is necessarily the favorite, but they have the advantage of their toughest road game in September (LSU) and they get UGA and us at home.

I wouldn't bet on them but I wouldn't bet against them, either.
Well stated. I can't for the life of me figure the Auburn Love Fest. Generally not returning the QB is a disadvantage, but not with Auburn. Generally having a lousey D is bad, but not for Aubie. Go figure.
 

gamersfuel

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if i was a betting man it'd be on either Bama or AU... AU had an awful defense but the return of Lawson and the addition of Cowart should make them at worse a little better. Johnson is an upgrade as far as passing goes. It's just a matter of how effective he can be running the read plays. i cant make a prediction but i just dont think betting on AU is quite as delusional as some may think.
 

selmaborntidefan

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Well stated. I can't for the life of me figure the Auburn Love Fest. Generally not returning the QB is a disadvantage, but not with Auburn. Generally having a lousey D is bad, but not for Aubie. Go figure.
Yeah but remember that Marshall was a nobody when he took over - now all of a sudden he's "they lost the starting QB." Marshall was the best of a bad bunch.

It will NOT surprise me if every team in the West has at least TWO losses. The gap has narrowed considerably. Remember - not a soul thought Blake Sims would take Alabama to #1, he wasn't even going to be the starter by October went the consensus.

I think a close look at Auburn over the last two years would give a clearer picture. In 2013, they won a bunch of close games; last year they lost those same games and should have lost Ole Miss AND K-State. And had they played Arkansas in November rather than early they may well have lost that one, too.

It all evens out and a lot of close games does two things: 1) it teaches teams to never give up no matter what; and 2) lulls teams into believing they can do anything and thus can induce recklessness.

Lots of returning starters, favorable schedule, and toughest road game early - I mean, it does align them with a generous opportunity. But if Gus goes 8-5 again then the grumbling will begin ESPECIALLY if we happen to win the West.

I'll tell ya the truth - I have no earthly idea how it will shake out this year. This appears to be the most balanced I've ever seen but Auburn is certainly not an insane pick to win the West. Their success will depend on their ability to win high-scoring shootouts. If they get into a game with a foe that keeps them in check (like MSU did last year) they'll be in trouble.

I'll say Auburn goes 10-2 or 9-3. Anything less and the natives will be restless.
 

GrayTide

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I agree Bill the winner in the SEC West could easily have two losses. IMO the only West team to rule out right now is MSU. The gap in the West between Alabama, LSU and the other five teams has been closed significantly; we are no longer feared and this is not 2009-2012.
 

selmaborntidefan

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I agree Bill the winner in the SEC West could easily have two losses. IMO the only West team to rule out right now is MSU. The gap in the West between Alabama, LSU and the other five teams has been closed significantly; we are no longer feared and this is not 2009-2012.
The question regarding MSU will be the fact they've lost a ton of starters. On the other hand, they soared last year and so you have players who are hungry to get it again. We will know by the end of September how good the Dawgs are. They have LSU at home and Auburn on the road among four games. But the flip side is this: the rest of their schedule pre-November is so favorable that MSU could EASILY get to November with a 7-1 record and they have time to get the tough things worked out before hitting the meat of the schedule in November.

Remember - MSU usually plays LSU close even when they're bad. The 2013 loss which looks terrible when you look at the final score was close until MSU gave out of gas in the fourth quarter. Remember how great that 2011 LSU team? The Dawgs were 7-6 but the score was 9-6 LSU entering the fourth quarter and ended, 19-6. In 2009, MSU won everywhere except on the scoreboard. These are in the odd-numbered years of HOME games - which this year's match-up is.

And MSU should have done better against Auburn as well. In 2013, Marshall took them 80 yards in the final two minutes to win at JHS. In 2011 - again - MSU put up one helluva fight and lost at the end. Heck, the year Cam won it all for them they only beat MSU, 17-14. And who will ever forget that 3-2 debacle from 2008?

Under Mullen, MSU has stood toe to toe with LSU and Auburn but usually come up short. Last year they didn't. Whether this will inspire the youngsters or not remains to be seen. I DO think it makes sense that folks look at what MSU lost - everything except Dak - and figure, "they're doomed," but if they can hit the break at 7-1, even they have to like the way the season looks. That will mean they've gone .500 against the two good teams.

And remember - they get us at Davis-Wade and while we have won all the games there recently, several have been way too close for comfort.

2013 - 20-7, four turnovers and MSU failed to capitalize
2011 - 24-7 (we led 10-7 entering the 4th)

Yeah, we did blow them out, 31-3, in 2009, but oh well. In recent years when they played us close at DWS, we played LSU the week prior....sorta like this year.


MSU should be no worse than 6-2 entering the break. If they're 5-3 (lose to ATM) or 4-4, well, the old MSU is back. My guess is that MSU will end the year no better than 7-5 but might do as well as 10-2.
 

deliveryman35

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It's not that I think we've regressed, I just think everyone else has gotten better. We are sort of a victim of our own success--everyone else has had to raise their game to another level and no one else is feeling that in our conference more than Auburn. They may very well fall flat on their face this year as some of you evidently think but I would not be willing to bet my hard-earned money on that. The location of the iron bowl has been extremely important, especially on our side, the last 20 yrs and what Malzahn's O did to us last yr in BDS still amazes me. They are not intimidated by us or Saban. The SEC championship goes through the plains this year. I'd be happy to be wrong but I'm standing by my prediction that falls in line with most in the SEC media that thinks they ultimately and barely win the conference this yr by winning the iron bowl.
 
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rgw

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I think we've regressed some honestly. The secondary has given up a lot more big plays over the last few years, largely due to just not being in good position to make a play on the ball. The run game hasn't been reliable in crunch time consistently either. I'd put the Auburn lost in 2013 on the offense being unable to produce a tough yard in a few critical moments against a subpar defense than the kicker missing a bunch of FGAs.

2013 and 2014 were fine football teams. One was a conference champion but neither were as hard nose on offense or capable of making individual plays in the secondary as the national champion teams under Saban. With the style Saban likes to play, you need those two things to be a championship caliber squad.
 

rgw

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By that token though, I am optimistic (with some qualifications) about this team. By necessity, this team will need to be a bit more run focused than the past few years because of a first-time starter QB and young WRs. The corners should be pretty experienced too. The questions are whether the new QB and safeties are going to be a liability or good enough to fit in the talent around them.
 

Alabama22

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That should tell you all you need to know about news "journalists", sportswriters and reporters...and why Coach Bryant generally loathed their existence! They are not the brightest bulbs in the box.
 

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