China economic slump?

Tidewater

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Where do people see it ending up?
Short term: a bad day on Wall Street.
Medium term: Wealthy Chinese selling assets and moving to the US (more stable).
Long term: Worst case it could be a Great Depression-type event in China. I'm not that pessimistic. I think the Chinese Central Bank will devalue the yuan enough to make Chinese exports competitive.
For the US, however, the Chinese buying spree of US T-bills may be over for a while, which makes it more expensive for the US to finance it deficit.
 

mittman

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Short term: a bad day on Wall Street.
Medium term: Wealthy Chinese selling assets and moving to the US (more stable).
Long term: Worst case it could be a Great Depression-type event in China. I'm not that pessimistic. I think the Chinese Central Bank will devalue the yuan enough to make Chinese exports competitive.
For the US, however, the Chinese buying spree of US T-bills may be over for a while, which makes it more expensive for the US to finance it deficit.
That last sentence is the big one for me. We have been leaning on this for so long. Adding the Feds waiting so long to raise interest rates,. We are in a very precarious position right now. I'm not smart enough to know how it ends up, but it is pretty obvious that it could get bad.
 

TIDE-HSV

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I got out except for a few odd stocks when the Dow was around 17,800, which wasn't the top, but close enough. If it drops low enough, I may get back in, but not nearly to the degree I was invested. Too old...
 

ValuJet

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I got out except for a few odd stocks when the Dow was around 17,800, which wasn't the top, but close enough. If it drops low enough, I may get back in, but not nearly to the degree I was invested. Too old...
Even though I am watching it pretty close this morning - more for curiosity and the spectacle of it, I learned long ago not to overreact at the sign of a correction. I still have 15-20 years and am still in primarily growth stocks, just not as aggressive as 15 years ago. I'm not really worried.
 

92tide

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Even though I am watching it pretty close this morning - more for curiosity and the spectacle of it, I learned long ago not to overreact at the sign of a correction. I still have 15-20 years and am still in primarily growth stocks, just not as aggressive as 15 years ago. I'm not really worried.
yeah, folks tend to over-react to short term news on stuff like this. i am heading to hong kong later this week for a trade show and it should be interesting to see what everyone's take on it is.

the partners we work with in hong kong don't seem too worried and see this as a correction that has been coming for a while. of course, part of their business is export, so it should help them in that realm.
 

92tide

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Wow, lost over 1,000 but has regained, hovering at -500 right now. Be interesting to see what happens this week,
i think everyone is freaking out about china right now. seems like their currency devaluation last week caught everyone by surprise. i think things will bounce around in crap territory the rest of the week then start strengthening back up again once the newness of the chinese news wears off.
 

crimsonaudio

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i think everyone is freaking out about china right now. seems like their currency devaluation last week caught everyone by surprise. i think things will bounce around in crap territory the rest of the week then start strengthening back up again once the newness of the chinese news wears off.
Yah, we've seen this over and over - knee-jerk panic, then calm when the bottom doesn't fall out.

As long as they keep the market open, we're all ok.
 

TIDE-HSV

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Yah, we've seen this over and over - knee-jerk panic, then calm when the bottom doesn't fall out.

As long as they keep the market open, we're all ok.
For those of you young enough, that is true. The main reason I got out when I did was age. The older you get, the less time you may have for the market to recover. I held my breath and rode the market down and back up in 2008. IDK, but I may not have that kind of time and patience again...
 

92tide

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For those of you young enough, that is true. The main reason I got out when I did was age. The older you get, the less time you may have for the market to recover. I held my breath and rode the market down and back up in 2008. IDK, but I may not have that kind of time and patience again...
yeah, im 46 so still have a little time to work with in regards to that.
 

crimsonaudio

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For those of you young enough, that is true. The main reason I got out when I did was age. The older you get, the less time you may have for the market to recover. I held my breath and rode the market down and back up in 2008. IDK, but I may not have that kind of time and patience again...
Yah, my parents are in the same boat - iirc they're completely out of the market at this point. They might live 20 more years, but it's too scary to risk it.
 

ValuJet

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I believe trading on NYSE is suspended if the drop hits 7%. It's around 3.5% now.
 

Tidewater

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I am not so worried about the US market. The Chinese economy is what worries me at this point (and thus there ability to buy T-bills to help the US finance its deficits).
This would be a really good time to be running a budget surplus.
 

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