Ten last-minute thoughts...

BigEasyTider

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JMO, but if Bama's offense explodes and Bama either wins the playoff or gets to the title game, he's gone. I'm not sure which schools are going to have vacancies so I might qualify that if there are no quality P5 positions open. What he continues to do with QB's is impressive and if he does it again this year (granted, he's not making gold from manure this year - and that's not a slam against BS, more a JC thing) successfully (meaning title game due as much to the offense as the defense) then if a quality job opens he's gone. Not sure about his family situation though - his wife did live in Knoxville, right? But won't live in Tuscaloosa? Hmmmmm.
Re: Kiffin possibly leaving, I think it's more of an issue of him finding the right job, which has always been his main shortcoming. For all of the criticism lobbied at Kiffin over the years, the most accurate -- yet seemingly the one least often stated -- is that he has consistently made poor career choices by taking the right job under the wrong circumstances.

Head coach of the Oakland Raiders, one the NFL's most storied franchises? Great job, except these Raiders have zero talent, are the most dysfunctional franchise in the league, and are "led" by a crazy owner with one foot in the grave. Head coach of Tennessee, traditional CFB powerhouse? Great job, except this UT program has been tanked by Fulmer and the SEC is at a peak unknown in the annals of college football. Head coach of USC? Great job, except here comes crippling NCAA sanctions, the rest of the Pac-12 is suddenly coming on strong, and expectations throughout the program remain high as can be. Common theme? All great jobs in theory, but all bad jobs in reality because the circumstances were all wrong.

Again, when you talk about Kiffin, you are basically talking about a guy who has let his career be defined by poor job choices, and I think he has reached a point to where he knows he cannot afford to keep making bad decisions in that respect. I think that was actually a very big role in him coming back to Tuscaloosa this year, and not taking the Niners OC job. So, if that improved thinking lasts another year, it might not be a surprise to see him still in Tuscaloosa in 2016.
 

CrimsonEyeshade

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The NCAA investigation, irregular as it was, didn't really turn up a fraction of what really went on during Dubose's three ring circus.
At the risk of diverting the thread .... We should all remember this the next time we want to blame everything on Fulmer, Kramer and the NCAA. If you cut your own wrists while swimming in the ocean, don't be surprised when the sharks pile in.
 
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BigEasyTider

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There are exceptions, you have to admit. Jimbo Fisher comes to mind.
No doubt there are exceptions, but those are quite clearly exceptions to the general rule. Anyone at a top CFB program hiring a first-time head coach is either apprehensive as can be or, if not, is just inherently oblivious to the enormity of the task at hand.

Even with Jimbo, as well as he has done at Florida State, I would venture to guess he would have had some real struggles in an SEC job. Not saying he couldn't have made it or ultimately wouldn't have had big-time success, but things would not have been nearly as easy for him, and it likely would have taken him a longer period of time to produce the level of returns that he has at FSU. It took him three years to get going in Tallahassee as it was, and really a fourth to take off on the national stage, and that was at a program like FSU, which basically has the luxury of being the only adult who gets to wade around in the kiddy pool. Stick him at an SEC West school circa 2010 and you've got a very different narrative for him.
 
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GrayTide

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IMO, Coach Saban will remain in Tuscaloosa no more than 5 years. I also believe he might try the NFL again or just retire and call it a career. He would then be 69 years old.

Obviously there could be someone out there we do not know of right now who by then maybe a hot commodity. I agree that any former Alabama player (Swinney and Jones) will have an almost impossible chance of landing the job. As for Kiffin, I see him in the NFL as either a coordinator or possibly a HC. A lot can happen in the next 5+ years.
 

TIDE-HSV

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IMO, Coach Saban will remain in Tuscaloosa no more than 5 years. I also believe he might try the NFL again or just retire and call it a career. He would then be 69 years old.

Obviously there could be someone out there we do not know of right now who by then maybe a hot commodity. I agree that any former Alabama player (Swinney and Jones) will have an almost impossible chance of landing the job. As for Kiffin, I see him in the NFL as either a coordinator or possibly a HC. A lot can happen in the next 5+ years.
I actually see CLK as more of an NFL HC. Where he seemed to have the most problem was dealing with was students, which is where CNS excels. One of the more amusing items, which comes up over and over, and it's coming up on the Wisc. boards now, is back to the NFL. These people haven't the benefit of his remarks over the years about how he missed molding young men, etc.,etc...
 

Chukker Veteran

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I've just read this thread, start to finish.

Excellent stuff.

One thought I've had that hasn't been brought up yet...

Will the level of success Saban has from here out effect how long he stays?

I see many people saying if we win another title with Kiffin at OC, Kiffin will be gone to a better job. I understand that reasoning.

But what I've wondered, if Saban can win his fifth title, will he be tempted to hang it up while he's on top? If you knew that was the case, would it be good or bad for him to win it? (Devilish question :).)

I personally think he's got at least six in mind, to match Coach Bryant, and isn't near retiring. But lots of folks have suggested if Saban/Kiffin win a title, Kiffin is gone, while there hasn't been any discussion if winning another title would encourage Saban to retire.
 

bama579

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I've just read this thread, start to finish.

Excellent stuff.

One thought I've had that hasn't been brought up yet...

Will the level of success Saban has from here out effect how long he stays?


I see many people saying if we win another title with Kiffin at OC, Kiffin will be gone to a better job. I understand that reasoning.

But what I've wondered, if Saban can win his fifth title, will he be tempted to hang it up while he's on top? If you knew that was the case, would it be good or bad for him to win it? (Devilish question :).)

I personally think he's got at least six in mind, to match Coach Bryant, and isn't near retiring. But lots of folks have suggested if Saban/Kiffin win a title, Kiffin is gone, while there hasn't been any discussion if winning another title would encourage Saban to retire.
Maybe the length of Sabans' stay depends less on titles, championships, etc., than on how much the team(s) buy into the process(es). Could be that the more players focus on the next thing in front of them, the more Saban enjoys the work and feeds his sense of accomplishment.

He has said repeatedly that he wants players to ignore the scoreboard, other clutter, and execute the next play to the maximum. As we fans have seen, this behavior leads to the things WE want.

There is the possibility that the things WE want - at least most of us - don't have much effect on his plans. Maybe the way he gets his message across to the young men means more than scores, titles, highlights, and other non-inner directed stuff.

Maybe. On the other hand , the preceding could be completely off target. In either case, I'm gonna enjoy his time at my alma mater. It has been GREAT so far. Bet it continues to be.
 
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CoolBreeze

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Love this thread (Thanks Jess) and really like the last two posts by CV and 579. I learned a great lesson from my mom once. She said, the body ages but your feelings always stay the same inside. I get the feeling coach will keep coaching 1) as long as his body will let him and 2) as long as someone will let him. The guy obviously loves what he does for a living and the lives he impacts. When he leaves I think it will be to take a break (age). And if he comes back it would be to a smaller school to build something (like maybe Kent State). But one thing is for certain...there are no other Nick Sabans out there my friends. Once he is gone it is going to be the return of tough sledding once again at the Capstone. I for one am going to enjoy what we have and hope couch feels young for a long time to come.
 

Matt0424

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I think his timetable depends on whether or not Mrs Terry let's him keep coaching.

[emoji16]

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Chukker Veteran

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Mrs. Terry has a very large credit card and will defer to what the coach wants to do.
I would like to introduce a good friend of mine to the board...Moonman 613. We go way back...

And I can vouch for him being a true Bama fan, no barner in disguise.
 

Crimson1967

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Bashing players or coaches can get you suspended here. Bashing Mrs. Terry should get you the death penalty.


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JessN

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I'll add a few more things because there are so many questions I keep forgetting to go back and answer them all:

1) Joey Jones: I list him as a coach to possibly watch in his next job, but I don't think that next job is Alabama. He needs to leave USA and go up a rung first. The big thing we're dancing around here but not addressing is who makes the decision to hire the next coach. I expect Saban to be involved in it. I expect a lot of UA's decision-makers, who still remember the wandering in the woods everyone did post-Stallings, to be involved in it. Ergo, I do not expect Joey to get a look here. And if Saban stays 7 more years, which is possible, Joey will be 60-ish.

2) Lane Kiffin: I didn't address Kiffin specifically, but I didn't address any other current assistants, either. I guess I should: I do not expect Kiffin to be the top candidate among the assistants. I expect Kirby to be. This is all presuming Kiffin is here at the changeover. If Saban stays longer than 2 or 3 more seasons, Kiffin will be doing exactly what he needs to do in order to get considered for the UA job -- he'll be somewhere else proving he has matured enough to handle a program operation. That was his downfall both with the Raiders and USC. For whatever else he, probation or Al Davis did or didn't do, he didn't manage either situation well. In order for Kiffin to get considered, he'll need to do so well at his next job that he overcomes any internal pressure to hire Kirby. For that matter, I'm not sure Mario Cristobal isn't above Kiffin in the pecking order at the moment. I don't think any of the other coaches would be in the mix but I'm not sure about Mel Tucker and won't be until we see him work a little.

3) Finding an Urban Meyer: We profiled him on "Coaches To Watch" when he was still at Bowling Green. We also profiled Dennis Franchione at New Mexico. I love trying to ID those guys early and was ecstatic when Alabama hired Franchione, but Franchione may be the biggest hurdle to hiring a mid-major guy. Franchione flat-out cracked under the pressure here. That is why he left, no other reason. He didn't leave because of the big, bad NCAA. He left because he lost confidence in himself to lead at a job this size. I don't fault him for that, because knowing your own limitations is something more people should know how to do, but I wish he hadn't left the way he did. If he'd just gone to a mic and said, "Guys, this just isn't working out, I'm a bad fit here," I can't imagine too many people would have hated him long-term. The problem is, he was an outsider, support was not unified behind him (Logan Young and a lot of his friends wanted Tommy Bowden to get the job) and if someone were to try to suggest a mid-major coach at this point, they'd get reminded of Franchione.
 

Matt0424

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I'll add a few more things because there are so many questions I keep forgetting to go back and answer them all:

1) Joey Jones: I list him as a coach to possibly watch in his next job, but I don't think that next job is Alabama. He needs to leave USA and go up a rung first. The big thing we're dancing around here but not addressing is who makes the decision to hire the next coach. I expect Saban to be involved in it. I expect a lot of UA's decision-makers, who still remember the wandering in the woods everyone did post-Stallings, to be involved in it. Ergo, I do not expect Joey to get a look here. And if Saban stays 7 more years, which is possible, Joey will be 60-ish.

2) Lane Kiffin: I didn't address Kiffin specifically, but I didn't address any other current assistants, either. I guess I should: I do not expect Kiffin to be the top candidate among the assistants. I expect Kirby to be. This is all presuming Kiffin is here at the changeover. If Saban stays longer than 2 or 3 more seasons, Kiffin will be doing exactly what he needs to do in order to get considered for the UA job -- he'll be somewhere else proving he has matured enough to handle a program operation. That was his downfall both with the Raiders and USC. For whatever else he, probation or Al Davis did or didn't do, he didn't manage either situation well. In order for Kiffin to get considered, he'll need to do so well at his next job that he overcomes any internal pressure to hire Kirby. For that matter, I'm not sure Mario Cristobal isn't above Kiffin in the pecking order at the moment. I don't think any of the other coaches would be in the mix but I'm not sure about Mel Tucker and won't be until we see him work a little.

3) Finding an Urban Meyer: We profiled him on "Coaches To Watch" when he was still at Bowling Green. We also profiled Dennis Franchione at New Mexico. I love trying to ID those guys early and was ecstatic when Alabama hired Franchione, but Franchione may be the biggest hurdle to hiring a mid-major guy. Franchione flat-out cracked under the pressure here. That is why he left, no other reason. He didn't leave because of the big, bad NCAA. He left because he lost confidence in himself to lead at a job this size. I don't fault him for that, because knowing your own limitations is something more people should know how to do, but I wish he hadn't left the way he did. If he'd just gone to a mic and said, "Guys, this just isn't working out, I'm a bad fit here," I can't imagine too many people would have hated him long-term. The problem is, he was an outsider, support was not unified behind him (Logan Young and a lot of his friends wanted Tommy Bowden to get the job) and if someone were to try to suggest a mid-major coach at this point, they'd get reminded of Franchione.
Jess, as always I think you did a wonderful job with these condensed articles. As a matter of fact, I'd like to see this more because you can get really good follow up questions and comments. Excellent job.

That being said, I honestly think that when Saban decides to go (whether 1-3-5-15 years from now) we could end up with a hire much like the CAJ hire in basketball.

While I wouldn't be surprised at one of the assistants getting the job (depending on timetables you don't know who's still here), I also wouldn't be surprised if the coach was from the pros.

I also agree that CNS will be involved, because I think he may be the successor to Bill Battle. That may be wishful thinking on my part, but he's said before (and even recently) that he wanted to keep having a hand in football even after he retired. I think he knows the value of having all athletics strong, and might just be the plan going forward.

Again, a lot depends on timing.

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rgw

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Totally right about finding the "next" problem. Ultimately, no matter where you go with the post-Saban hire the worst case always amounts to "they can't get the job done." Just gotta hope for a little luck.
 

bamablood6

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I think his timetable depends on whether or not Mrs Terry let's him keep coaching.

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Yep, Coach just wants to coach football....I dont think he really cares all that much where....but wherever it is Mrs. Terry has to be happy. She is happy in Tuscaloosa right now....so therefore coach is happy in Tuscaloosa right now. I mean she dont see him all that much as a Head Coaches wife, so the other things around her have to make her happy. And he wants her to be happy, so he can coach football.

If she had been happy in Miami, he might still be in Miami (with enough success). And if/when Mrs. Terry gets tired of Tuscaloosa, Coach will leave. She may push him to retire or move on (which I doubt), but she might, and he will leave.
 

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