Ten last-minute thoughts...

JessN

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None of this had a neat spot to fit in the Wisconsin preview or the other articles, so I'm throwing it in here...

1) QB: A lot of what Nick Saban chooses to do with the media, people find curious. I'm not sure why UA has been so dedicated to practicing subterfuge at the QB position this offseason. It would be different if UA had a Sims type at QB, but they don't. Bateman, Coker and Barnett are all good athletes but there is no Sims on this team. It's not like hiding the starter is causing Wisconsin to prepare any differently. They're either getting the pro-style guy, the other pro-style guy or the other other pro-style guy. It's the Larry, Daryl and Daryl of football. That means either the subterfuge has been unnecessary, or they literally don't have a starter yet, and if that's the case, I don't want to know.

2) Offensive philosophy and DB play: The HUNH is quickly becoming the default offense, just like the spread-option before it, and the traditional spread before that. When that happens, a few interesting things happen, not the least of which is defenses start to accelerate in their ability to figure out the tricks. Look at the offense Louisiana Tech used against Alabama (the BYU-based, no-option spread) in both 1997 and 1999. Bubble screens on every other play. Run that offense today and see what you get. It's not vertical enough to stretch the field and not dynamic enough in the running game to keep people off the QB. Back in 1999, it was like trying to figure out hieroglyphics. Now, what does the HUNH do to defenses? It's all based on a half-dozen running plays, so there are a couple of things going on: One, it shrinks the size of DL, because you want quicker guys who can get to the OL's shoulder. Two, it puts pressure on the DBs. We're seeing more 4-2-5 base than we've ever seen because DCs can go one of two ways here -- either back to some variant of the old 5-2, or they can flood the field with DBs and then funnel to the edges (i.e., the path Joe Kines had UA on in 2005 and 2006), not to mention stop getting caught chasing a free WR on a smash route. What I'm getting at here is that if UA's secondary has improved as much as we think it has (thank you Mel Tucker) then especially one-dimensional HUNH teams like Ole Miss aren't going to enjoy playing the Crimson Tide.

3) Mark Richt: I think if UGA doesn't win the East (or, failing that, find a way to get in the final four without winning the division) in 2015, Georgia will fire him. If I'm Georgia admin this offseason, I would have started putting the pressure on behind the scenes, like LSU allowed to happen in regards to Les Miles, but they didn't. It makes me question the acumen of the people in charge over there.

4) SEC expansion: First of all, it's all about TV markets that the SEC currently doesn't have, so don't guess Florida State (UF has the market) or a sentimental favorite like Georgia Tech or Tulane. I'm thinking they go after the North Carolina and D.C. markets, which means either Maryland/Virginia/Virginia Tech for one slot and Duke/UNC/NC State/Wake Forest for the other. I'm 50/50 on whether this even happens. As for buyouts and whatnot, if the SEC decides it wants it to happen badly enough, the conference can make it happen.

5) My three biggest concerns with UA in 2015 (in order): QB, RB depth, Lane Kiffin. I thought the game plan for Ohio State was bad and if we're not flexible enough to make big adjustments then we're not flexible enough. Kiffin did a lot of good things in 2014 but knowing when to hold or fold isn't just applicable to a country song. (p.s.: Not looking to get into a discussion of whether the defense won or lost that game but with a different offensive plan it might not have had to.)

6) Speaking of Mark Richt and his seat being hot, everyone on this list has something to be scared of this year: Richt, Miles, Stoops, Mason. Darkhorses? Mullen and Malzahn. Mississippi State is an injury to Dak Prescott away from being 4-8. Even with Prescott, MSU could still finish under .500. Malzahn just has to worry about Alabama this year. I think Auburn's expectations as a contender are inflated, which isn't Malzahn's fault. What would hurt him, though, is 8-4 and another ugly loss to Alabama. The 55-44 game seems to have become remembered more favorably as time has passed but Alabama dominated 75% of that game and AU only scored its last TD because Alabama let it happen in exchange for running some clock. If Bama goes to AU and wins by 2 or 3 scores, it sets up a scenario in 2016 where Auburn must come to Tuscaloosa and win or else. Everything AU does has a UA focus to some degree and losing three straight to UA (2014-2016) would be lethal to Malzahn.

7) Muschamp: After watching the way UF imploded, I don't think Muschamp will be successful at his next stop. If Saban were to retire following 2015, the two names I keep seeing fans float around -- other than guys on the current staff -- are Muschamp and Dabo Swinney. I think Muschamp may very well be Mike DuBose without the secretary/religion angle. I know a lot of guys who think he was exposed at UF for being almost a dumb guy. There is a difference between being a great assistant, or even a great coordinator and being a head coach, and the latter is all about how you manage the program like a CEO. There used to be a time not so long ago where a college head coach could be successful yet not be a CEO type, but those days are probably over. Once Muschamp had eaten through his second well-respected offensive coordinator, you kind of knew where the problem was or wasn't. Will he be good for Auburn as a coordinator? Yes, because he's going to run Nick Saban's system and AU can recruit for it. Will he be great as a coordinator? Hard to say but I've never been as high on him as some have, going back to when he worked for Saban. Will he be successful as a head coach somewhere down the line? I don't think so.

8) Dabo: To close this loop, since I brought it up, no, I don't think Dabo Swinney could be highly successful at UA. I don't think he has the personality to handle this job. He's almost at his limit at Clemson, which is a big job but not a Bama-level job. He's got to get tougher. I believe he has toughened up a bit recently but is it enough? I don't think so. Remember, too, that whoever follows Nick Saban will need to be the biggest kiss-my-*** guy in the world for a couple of years and that's not Swinney. I think if he immediately followed Saban at UA, it would be an unmitigated disaster. There would have to be a transitional hire in there and unfortunately, that means someone who would be hired and then fail. So no, I don't think it's going to happen.

9) Coaches to watch: I may write a full article on this one again, like we used to do, but for now here are a few names from non-BCS schools: Mark Hudspeth (ULL), Bronco Mendenhall (BYU), Joey Jones (USA), Tim DeRuyter (FRES), Matt Wells (USU), Matt Campbell (TOL), Lance Leipold (BUF), Dino Babers (BGSU), Bobby Wilder (ODU), Bill Clark (UAB). I didn't list guys that haven't been a head coach yet. The most interesting name on that list to me is Bobby Wilder at Old Dominion -- something like 50-20 since getting the program up and running and finished 6-6 while moving up to FBS. But he's 51, so the clock is ticking. As for a BCS guy, the next time there's a major opening somewhere (Georgia?), it's going to be hard to overlook Todd Graham at Arizona State, a guy who once made our "coaches to watch" list when he was at Rice.

10) If I had to pick an absolute shocker for national champion, I mean someone totally off the grid this year? Boise State. The Broncos return 18 starters from a 12-2 team, they play only two teams that can beat them (Washington, BYU) and their coach, Bryan Harsin, probably belongs in the list I put up in #9. Boise starts with Washington at home and then goes to BYU. After that, it's a whole lotta nothin'. Virginia is on the docket but the Cavs are a mess. Utah State is always a tough out for Boise but the Broncos are the better team. Air Force in Week 11 is the "spoiler alert" game because of its option offense. But if BSU plows through this schedule, they'll be in line for a bid.
 

bama2112

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Maybe the Bham news needs to RIF the kids they have now as reporters and hire you. AL. com is becoming a joke and I dont even live in Ala anymore. Oh the AJC sux just as bad.
 

BamaInBham

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I can't believe Muschamp is being considered by anyone associated with Alabama. What insanity - that is hard to take seriously. I think he is overrated as a DC. Probably good but not great. Saban fired him as DC at Miami.

As far as the current staff, from afar I prefer Cristobal over Smart or Kiffin. He has HC experience and success plus he appears to have more gravitas than the others. He "seems" like a big man and dignified. I guess this year's OL will tell us a lot about his coaching acumen. He has already proven he is a good talent evaluator and a fabulous national recruiter. What do you think ?

This was in response to Jess' post.
 
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BadgerTidefan

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I think Muschamp will fail too. I haven't seen this mentioned, but to me, he's too hot tempered. It's one thing to be purposely angry ( to accomplish something) and still under control, but that's not the impression I get watching him. Those days are gone in my opinion. A person can be technically competent or even brilliant but still fail because of personality issues, happens in business very frequently. Not judging his entire personality, I just am not impressed by his demeanor watching him on the sidelines. Sometimes he looks almost out of control.
 

IMALOYAL1

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I think if he immediately followed Saban at UA, it would be an unmitigated disaster. There would have to be a transitional hire in there and unfortunately, that means someone who would be hired and then fail. So no, I don't think it's going to happen.
I have thought whoever comes after Saban may need to be a scapegoat. I really don't want to touch that subject at this time.
 

CrimsonEyeshade

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Thoughtful and provocative, JN. This would be a terrific weekly feature. I'm sure a pay raise of some sort would be involved.
 

92tide

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great read. thanks jess. you are one of the few sportswriters that can consistently give a thoughtful look on the state of our program and the sec

i am excited to watch our d this season.

i don't think richt will leave uga until he runs that program into the ground. he may one of these days slip up and end up in the national mix at the end of the season, but he will never be consistently successful at anything except almost getting uga there, which is apparently enough for the uga ptb.
 

Con

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Thanks Jess. This was a great write up. I enjoyed seeing something this close to game day to help me relax a bit.


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trenda

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Good stuff, Jess. Thanks.

As for up and coming coaches, you don't think Fuente at Memphis is among that group? I think what he's done there is nothing short of a miracle. An offensive mind that learned under a defensive-minded coach (Patterson at TCU). Could easily see him taking the reins of a program like Vanderbilt.
 

Tideflyer

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Echo what others have said. Thanks Jess, great piece. For me, I really only place Jess and Cecil in the " Must Read" category when it comes to Alabama related sports writing.
 

GrayTide

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Like this a lot, thanks Jess. If CNS should retire after this season I have no clue as to his successor but hope it is not Swinney. You are right he is maxed out at Clemson.
 

im4uainva

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Like this a lot, thanks Jess. If CNS should retire after this season I have no clue as to his successor but hope it is not Swinney. You are right he is maxed out at Clemson.
Gentlemen, please...I understand that it is the natural progression in these matters, but it causes my head to ache to even entertain the notion that CNS would retire at the end of this year, this decade, or even the next decade. So please excuse me while I go bury my head in the sand when this subject is pondered.
And Jess, thanks for the article.


Roll Tide!
 

AlistarWills

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Concerning Richt and to since you somewhat mentioned, Les Miles. If those programs decide to go in another direction, who are they going to get? You know they are going to want to do what we did and hire a successful guy who has proved himself already. Those are few and far in between. How many "proven" guys are looking for a job. LSU would be easier to sell because of the recruiting base in Louisiana, Georgia, not so much.
 

NiteyNight

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Is there any reason to believe Saban is entertaining the thought of retiring at the end of this year? Did I miss something or is this just thinking about the future?


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TideEngineer08

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Thanks for this, Jess. I always love reading stuff like this from you.

I really believe if our defense, especially the backfield, is as improved as is being touted, we'll be fine. Unless the QB position turns into a total meltdown.

Count me among those that would be seriously dismayed if Muschamp and Swinney are being considered for the HC to replace Saban some day. Swinney would be better than Muschamp, but he's got a lot of baggage (IMO at least) with his ties to the DuBose regime. Muschamp would be the worst possible hire, and I can't believe anyone would think otherwise after he completely destroyed Florida's program. Yes, Meyer didn't leave it in great shape, but it wasn't a dumpster fire. Muschamp made it a flaming pile of garbage.
 

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