Ten last-minute thoughts...

TideEngineer08

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That's what I'm wondering.

Good write up though, Jess.
The usual yearly blurb about it has come out from some media hack looking for attention. There was a thread posted about it yesterday, I think, which was promptly and predictably locked and probably deleted.

Whether he's going to retire next year or 15 years from now, it's going to happen at some point. And while I'm as optimistic as they come, I believe chances are it will be far sooner than later.
 

BamaMoon

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To touch on what _21 posted above (#8), that is absolutely correct, as long as there are people around who knew what took place. If anyone knows where the bodies are buried, it is he, because he helped bury them. On (5), I just never know how much to credit - or debit - CLK, I'd have to know what kind of mix the offense is between Kiffin and Saban. CNS has been clear that he hires OCs to run his offense. I do think that has changed some with CLK, but I'm not sure that Kiffin is the one who gets stubborn or refuses to make adjustments. I do think he has more autonomy than past OCs...
I freely admit "I know nothing" about some things you are referring to when CDS was at UA. I'm sure what you are referring to would come into play when the time to replace CNS comes to pass.

However, I stand beside the comments that CDS is miles ahead of CWM on results. Dabo's got some good numbers.
 

TIDE-HSV

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Is there any reason to believe Saban is entertaining the thought of retiring at the end of this year? Did I miss something or is this just thinking about the future?


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In a recent interview, he pointed out that his mother had made a hole in one at 80 and he never had, so he saw no reason he couldn't coach at least that long. There was the 111th report by an internet "journalist" that he was unhappy. That talk had just about died out, but he needed a topic for his blog, so why not make it up?
 

CrimSonami

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Is there any reason to believe Saban is entertaining the thought of retiring at the end of this year? Did I miss something or is this just thinking about the future?
Don't think so. But I'll say this. When the fire inside him starts to dwindle and he doesn't have a wood pile close by nor the desire to cut more he won't drag it out like most coaches do. He'll, of course, know before we do and his announcement will shock and surprise the majority of us. I have no idea how long we'll be blessed with him but I'll wish him the best when he leaves.

RTR!!!
 

Tidetwin

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"1) QB: A lot of what Nick Saban chooses to do with the media, people find curious. I'm not sure why UA has been so dedicated to practicing subterfuge at the QB position this offseason. It would be different if UA had a Sims type at QB, but they don't. Bateman, Coker and Barnett are all good athletes but there is no Sims on this team. It's not like hiding the starter is causing Wisconsin to prepare any differently. They're either getting the pro-style guy, the other pro-style guy or the other other pro-style guy. It's the Larry, Daryl and Daryl of football. That means either the subterfuge has been unnecessary, or they literally don't have a starter yet, and if that's the case, I don't want to know."

Great and provocative stuff, Jess. Thanks for your hard work.

In the 45 years I have followed Alabama football, I can't recall a single time when our starting quarterback has not been publically named this late in the pre-season. We have had multiple times when one was named but then replaced within a game or two but nothing, in my memory, compares to this year's situation.

I'm not sure it means anything one way or another. Can anyone think of a previous instance?
 
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4Q Basket Case

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I used to think head coaching experience was a pre-requisite for the Alabama job. I no longer think that way.

Look at the Top 25:
TCU at 2
The barn at 6 (unless you count 1 year at Arkansas state)
Oregon at 7
Georgia at 9
FSU at 10
Clemson at 12
Oklahoma at 19
Stanford at 21
Boise at 23 (again, except for one year at Arkansas State)

All have first time head coaches. Several others in the Top 25 were at really small jobs immediately before the big break.

And as we know from painful experience (Curry, Price and Franchione), HC experience is no guarantee of success.

The fact of the matter is it's something of a crapshoot whenever you make a hire, and I can't see where HC experience is at all predictive.

So I go with Smart because I think he's the most saturated with The Process. Which I think is more predictive than a previous HC spot. Yeah, it would have some risk. Name me someone who (1) would come, and (2) would be riskless.
 
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TideEngineer08

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"1) QB: A lot of what Nick Saban chooses to do with the media, people find curious. I'm not sure why UA has been so dedicated to practicing subterfuge at the QB position this offseason. It would be different if UA had a Sims type at QB, but they don't. Bateman, Coker and Barnett are all good athletes but there is no Sims on this team. It's not like hiding the starter is causing Wisconsin to prepare any differently. They're either getting the pro-style guy, the other pro-style guy or the other other pro-style guy. It's the Larry, Daryl and Daryl of football. That means either the subterfuge has been unnecessary, or they literally don't have a starter yet, and if that's the case, I don't want to know."

Great and provocative stuff, Jess. Thanks for your hard work.

In the 45 years I have followed Alabama football, I can't recall a single time when our starting quarterback has not been publically named this late in the pre-season. We have had multiple times when one was named but then replaced within a game or two but nothing, in my memory, compares to this year's situation.

I'm not sure it means anything one way or another. Can anyone think of a previous instance?
I don't believe we'd settled on a true starter in 2011 with McCarron and P. Sims. Maybe AJ was named starter publicly but there was a competition ongoing through the first game.
 

DzynKingRTR

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I don't believe we'd settled on a true starter in 2011 with McCarron and P. Sims. Maybe AJ was named starter publicly but there was a competition ongoing through the first game.
that was what I was thinking. but it was only 2 guys then. and then there was Zow/Watts as well.

I can't remember a time where the depth chart listed 5 guys.
 

RTR91

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I don't believe we'd settled on a true starter in 2011 with McCarron and P. Sims. Maybe AJ was named starter publicly but there was a competition ongoing through the first game.
I don't think AJ was named the starting QB until after the first couple of games. He and Phillip shared snaps against Kent State in the opener.
 

Alabama22

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I have thought whoever comes after Saban may need to be a scapegoat. I really don't want to touch that subject at this time.
I don't think we need another scapegoat following a great coach (Saban), such as DuBose following Stallings. Look what that got us. I'd like to see one of the assistants who knows how to do it the right way step in. But I'm not sure if any of our assistants would be the right man for that. Glad it's not my choice. However, we have seen pretty good success at MSU and LSU since Saban left those programs. Whoever follows Coach Saban needs to be the right choice, for sure, or we are destined for another miserable era like the ones we had after Coaches Bryant and Stallings.

With all that said, I prefer not to worry about or think about Coach Saban's eventual departure right now...thank you very much. We have a new football season right in front of us!
 

sabanball

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As for "who" replaces CNS, I don't even want to think about crossing that bridge yet.

uga will win enough games this year to keep Richt. 8-5 or worse is what would get Richt fired if then, I mean after all, he is a nice guy and runs a clean program. "Hamburger is what the dawgs want!" as a previous poster put it.

That being said, I think it is a race between Sumlin and Miles to see who gets fired first. Sumlin is trending down on wins since 2012 and now some Ags are openly questioning if he is the right guy. Sumlin is one of the highest paid coaches in the SEC, hasn't even won the division and appears to some to be "in over his head" in the SEC. Year 4 of the Sumlin regime could turn out to be a "make or break" year. I wouldn't be surprised either to see Sumlin become the "Mark Richt" of the SECW winning just enough every year...

Just my .02
 

RTR91

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Blake was named. Controversy ensued but we knew he was going to start.
Depth chart read Blake Sims/Jake Coker.

Saban said Blake would start against WVU but didn't name him the starter. Saban wouldn't even call him the starter after the Southern Miss game. Link

Coker threw mostly short passes in relief duty. He overthrew Raheem Falkins on a go-route in the final five minutes. Saban said they still want Coker to get time and develop confidence within Alabama offense.

"But I think we have to make decisions on a week-to-week basis on what we think gives us the best opportunity to win," Saban said. "Right now, Blake probably is a little more confident and if that remains that way, he's probably going to start. He started every game so far, but we have a lot of confidence in Jake. I just think Jake has to play."
 

deliveryman35

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I don't think AJ was named the starting QB until after the first couple of games. He and Phillip shared snaps against Kent State in the opener.
Technically you're probably correct, but once Phillip fumbled back at his own goal line against Kent State and surrendered the TD I think everybody pretty much knew it was over.
 

Tidetwin

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that was what I was thinking. but it was only 2 guys then. and then there was Zow/Watts as well.

I can't remember a time where the depth chart listed 5 guys.
Zow and Watts were like 1A and 1B. Wasn't AJ the presumptive starter though? A lot of insiders stated that he was a Saban favorite.

Maybe it is the disquieting fact that no one has really consistently stepped up and taken the job that prevents a starter from being named.
 
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bamamc1

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Great job as always Jess. I have said this since he was hired and I will say it again: There will be trouble down on the farm because you have 2 in gus and muschamp that want to be the spotlight and it will never work. Just wait and see. And there is no way muschamp or dabo are even considered once CNS retires.
 

BamaInBham

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Of the previous 3 "new QB" seasons under Saban (09, 11, 14), in the last 2 seasons a starter had not been named at this point: 11 AJM/PS, 14 BS/JC.

As far as there being reasons to not name a starter by now even if he is known: 1) to relieve pressure on him 2) why give the opponent any info 3) there is a difference between Bateman and Coker/Morris, even Saban has said so 4) keep the competition going, keeps the starter sharp, the others keep competing with hope 5) if you change your mind you don't have to do so publicly

IMO, the fact a starter has not been named had been way overblown. Anything Bama and Saban does is front page news, especially if it can be construed as bad. Part of the reason is simply wishful thinking. Again the last 2 times a starter had not been named by the first game turned out great - AJ and Blake. Both were better QBs IMO than when GM was named the QB by now in 09. IMO, Bama has a much better group of QBs to choose from than the previous 3 times under Saban. Sure things could fall apart but there is no precedent for that to happen. The precedent and current evidence suggest a successful outcome.
 

bodiddle

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Zow and Watts were like 1A and 1B. Wasn't AJ the presumptive starter though? A lot of insiders stated that he was a Saban favorite.

Maybe it is the disquieting fact that no one has really consistently stepped up and taken the job that prevents a starter from being named.
The problem is that they are all stepping up, which is a great problem to have. Please don't assume because no starter has been named that no one is doing well and no one is stepping up.
 

BigEasyTider

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I just can't get on board with the Kiffin criticism. Overall he did a superb job last year, and he's one of our biggest concerns now -- all because he was too rigid in one game where we piled up 35 points and 400+ yards of offense against the eventual national champion, despite three ugly INTs and generally bad QB play on third down? Not to say that he is perfect by any stretch, but if he's one of our biggest concerns for this season, I'd wager we are in for one hell of a year. With all due respect, I'll dissent on this one.

Do think Jess is spot-on about the QBs. Regardless of who wins the job, for the most part it's the same type of player who will be running the same system. And considering that Saban isn't usually the one to engage in wasteful, unnecessary subterfuge, I think the only reasonable conclusion is just that none of the three have been able to meaningfully separate from the other two. Not to say all three aren't decent enough to get the job done, but if there was any significant separation, we would have named a starter by now.

I think Dabo would be an absolute disaster at Alabama. Him at the helm strikes me as being Dubose all over again... i.e. a hometown guy whose emotions would probably get the best of him under pressure, someone who wouldn't be strong enough to lead the program and would instead find himself caught powerless and spinning amidst a fractured program, and a guy who would basically turn to recruiting to hopefully bail everything out. That's a recipe for disaster. On a personal level I like Dabo a lot and would love to see one of our own lead the program to great success, but, rationally speaking, I cannot see him ever surviving at UA. I can only hope that the PTB respectfully declines on him once the time comes, because unless he truly fizzles at Clemson -- which probably isn't too likely in the ACC -- he will be a candidate.

Idea on Muschamp at Auburn is that the exposure to Malzahn's offensive operation will allow him (1) a quick rebound with success as a defensive guru, and (2) give him the skills he needs to put together a competent offensive attack, which -- in theory, put together with his defense -- would yield a strong team/program at his next head coaching destination. I think it's all wishful thinking on his end. You don't tank at a top program and then later get a head coaching job at another top program, just doesn't work that way. He'll do well at Auburn, and he'll either end up back in the NFL as a DC or he'll end up as a head coach as a middling P5 program in CFB. He's kidding himself thinking that he'll either get another top CFB head coaching job, or that he can use Auburn as a trampoline to bounce right back into that type of a job.

Richt ought to be fired if he doesn't get to Atlanta this year, but he won't be. The overall weakness of the SEC the past several years has really allowed him to survive (obviously internal UGA dynamics, which still make no sense to me, have played a big part too). Eventually he will go out like Fulmer did. Other East programs will finally get it together and raise the level of play in the division, and Richt won't be able to rise up with them and UGA will feel forced to make a change as they descend down the divisional ladder. That's exactly what happened with Fulmer and UT -- that program was running on empty by '03, but didn't come to a stop until '08. For Richt and UGA, though, I figure that's probably at least two or three years down the road.
 
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UAME

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1) QB: A lot of what Nick Saban chooses to do with the media, people find curious. I'm not sure why UA has been so dedicated to practicing subterfuge at the QB position this offseason. It would be different if UA had a Sims type at QB, but they don't. Bateman, Coker and Barnett are all good athletes but there is no Sims on this team. It's not like hiding the starter is causing Wisconsin to prepare any differently. They're either getting the pro-style guy, the other pro-style guy or the other other pro-style guy. It's the Larry, Daryl and Daryl of football. That means either the subterfuge has been unnecessary, or they literally don't have a starter yet, and if that's the case, I don't want to know.

Strategically, not naming a starting QB seems trite, considering that it really buys you no advantage with our upcoming opponents. I personally wonder if the handling of this QB situation (which appears to be a departure from Saban's MO) is reflective of CLK's increased "autonomy", as TIDE-HSV labeled it... all other evaluations being equal, you would think that CNS's preference would be to game experience (Coker), but I wonder if CLK feels the ceiling is higher with some of the others...



6) Speaking of Mark Richt and his seat being hot, everyone on this list has something to be scared of this year: Richt, Miles, Stoops, Mason. Darkhorses? Mullen and Malzahn. Mississippi State is an injury to Dak Prescott away from being 4-8. Even with Prescott, MSU could still finish under .500. Malzahn just has to worry about Alabama this year. I think Auburn's expectations as a contender are inflated, which isn't Malzahn's fault. What would hurt him, though, is 8-4 and another ugly loss to Alabama. The 55-44 game seems to have become remembered more favorably as time has passed but Alabama dominated 75% of that game and AU only scored its last TD because Alabama let it happen in exchange for running some clock. If Bama goes to AU and wins by 2 or 3 scores, it sets up a scenario in 2016 where Auburn must come to Tuscaloosa and win or else. Everything AU does has a UA focus to some degree and losing three straight to UA (2014-2016) would be lethal to Malzahn.
I find it hard to believe that Malzahn would be on the hot seat so quickly, even with another loss to Bama. I think everyone (including barners) could see through the ruse of Chizik's tenure, but I think Gus will only go down quickly if more opponents than just Bama find a way to shut down his offense. Until Saban departs, AU will have a difficult time finding quality replacements that want to share this state with us.

8) Remember, too, that whoever follows Nick Saban will need to be the biggest kiss-my-*** guy in the world for a couple of years and that's not Swinney.
I wonder if Ray Perkins would have 1 or 2 good years left in him??
 

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