Too early to predict a season but TCU and W Virginia have yet to prove they can sustain Power Five conference titles. Baylor has sustained. So ..... I predict TCU will not sustain and lose more than once this year.
I question the conclusion Baylor has sustained.
Baylor's rise to the top two in the Big 12 coincides with some rather convenient departures from the conference. In point of fact, Baylor's success is no different than West Virginia suddenly getting "good" when all the other powers left the Big East. Baylor owes its entire 'success' to the following:
a) Colorado, Nebraska, Missouri and aTm all left the conference.
Baylor went 1-1 against the current SEC teams in 2011, that was the RGIII Heisman year. Wanna know what Baylor's record was against those four teams from 1996-2010? Can you even guess how bad it was? Try 5-31. They never beat Nebraska, even though they played the Cornhuskers when they were a shell of their former selves. When they have won those games, it's pretty much: a) always close and b) in a down year for Colorado (one of those wins was against a 2-10 CU team).
b) TCU and WVA came into the conference
The Bears are 3-2 against those foes IN CONFERENCE PLAY. I realize that's a small sample but there's a huge difference pct wise between 3-2 and 5-31.
c) Oklahoma and Texas are 'down' compared to their former selves
OU is still pretty good but this is a team that used to be in the top five almost every year from 2000-2008. They take a step back, Baylor goes 3-1 the last four years against OU and voila! Then, there's Texas, who apparently departed when Colt McCoy's arm did. Baylor is also 3-1 against Texas in the last four years.
d) The Big 12 went from an eight-game conference schedule to a ninth - guaranteeing Baylor gets to drill Kansas every year.
Baylor doesn't get Kansas from 2007-2009. The Jayhawks rotate on in 2010 and become an annual opponent in 2012. Baylor is 4-0 against them.
So you subtract AT LEAST TWO annual losses from the old Big 12 every year and ADD FOUR WINS and sometimes FIVE PER YEAR.....and voila! You're suddenly viewed as a national power. Throw in the fact that Okie State is inconsistent (10 wins one year, 7 the next). In some seasons, you're trading three losses out and five wins in merely because of the time it is. What happens when you do that? A four-win team becomes a nine-win team and a 7-win team becomes an 11-win team.
In all honesty, this is no different than Mississippi State suddenly looking real good 1997-2000.......while Alabama and Ole Miss were both serving crippling probations, LSU was rebuilding, and Auburn was dealing with the post-Bowden fallout. All of a sudden, the Bulldogs look pretty good. Look at the teams they played from the East during that time frame:
1998 - 1-10 S Carolina, Kentucky, Vandy
1999 - 0-11 S Carolina, Vandy, Kentucky
2000 - S Carolina, Florida, Kentucky
MSU's record against the East? 7-1, including a spanking of Florida (it was nowhere near as close as the 47-35 score suggests)
So you add wins over two teams on probation (7-3 against us and Ole Miss from 96-00; from 90-95? 3-9), which is 1-2 wins plus per year, three plus wins on the East side of the ledger guaranteed, catch Auburn during the fallout of Terry Bowden (MSU went 4-0 vs them, including the year Auburn won the West) - which is another win - and suddenly a 5-win team is now a 9-win team......ten if you can get one of those lucky bounces.
And the moment the schedule shifts off and they suddenly have to play Florida, Tennessee, Georgia (MSU record vs those teams in the next four years? 1-3), South Carolina (who they play every year) gets good under Holtz (0-3 from 00-02), Ole Miss comes off probation (1-3 in 01-04), and Saban turns LSU into a monster, and Tuberville gets his team in place at Auburn (MSU goes from 4-0 to 0-4)........MSU falls right back to being MSU.
And that's what's happening to Baylor right now.
I don't mean to sound like I'm diminishing them because they still have to win the games but really.......as large as Texas is, there's plenty of talent to go around, which is the answer to the objection, "But this doesn't happen for Iowa State!" Of course it doesn't - Iowa State is the #2 program in a much smaller state where the weather in the fall is NOT an attraction for a recruit.
Baylor will remain a 6- or 7-win team but their days are numbered where they are now.