News Article: Interesting take on Trump from the NYT...

selmaborntidefan

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If Carson get's the nomination the Republican loss will be on the scale of Mondale '84 and it will be fun to watch
Even you don't believe that Carson will only carry one state.

That very candidate would carry pretty much the entire Southern USA not called Florida.

Would he still lose? Most likely.

Then again, you might want to remember that as one-sided as that was, the Democrats actually GAINED two Senate seats that year. They lost 17 House seats, meaning a repeat performance will give us 56 Republican Senators and a House GOP majority.

If you think the party hierarchy wouldn't take that result in a second, you're mistaken. It all but guarantees a filibuster-proof majority in 2018. Sure, the country as a whole loses (like always), but the GOP certainly wouldn't mind Carson losing and gaining in the Senate and holding the house since he's not 'really' one of them anyway.
 

selmaborntidefan

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Romney lost because he was the democratic equivalent to Kerry in all that he did was disagree with his opponent and didn't have a strong platform.
Romney lost because he was nothing more than Obama Lite, and everyone knew it. You simply don't get elected governor of Massachusetts as a CONSERVATIVE - there is no such thing. Romney then managed to alienate group after group to the point that come election time he had converted millions of Republicans into Democrats for at least one cycle.

Romney couldn't exactly attack Obamacare in light of the Mass health care setup now, could he?

I do agree with you, however, that he was the spitting image of John Kerry. Both held elective office in Massachusetts - go figure....


I fear Rubio is more in line with this in terms of the comparison.
OK, that makes a little more sense. Fact is that every single time Republicans listen to Democrats and nominate a Democrat in the wrong clothes to run for President, they lose; every time they nominate 'an extremist' by the media's standards, they win. There's a difference, of course, in a media-designated extremist and an ACTUAL extremist. Reagan was a media-designated one, David Duke or George Wallace is an actual one.

As far as the too conservative point, i was more saying that Rubio's comments on planned parenthood at the debate are haunting him and making him look ultra conservative. I think if he doesn't change that image he could be out by June.
This sounds like a contradiction. First, he isn't saying anything then he's saying too much.

Believe it or not, Planned Parenthood and gay marriage are NOT going to determine who wins no matter who pretends otherwise. It will be the economy, national security, and perhaps the budget deficit like it always is. For all of the heat the abortion issue causes, it ranks maybe tenth in importance for voters - every poll always shows that same thing. Besides - the folks who consider that the most important issue split 50/50 anyway.

I'd have to actually pay attention to the candidates but since I don't really have time, I guess by the time we get to vote it will be decided in the primaries anyway.
 

Jon

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Even you don't believe that Carson will only carry one state.

That very candidate would carry pretty much the entire Southern USA not called Florida.

Would he still lose? Most likely.

Then again, you might want to remember that as one-sided as that was, the Democrats actually GAINED two Senate seats that year. They lost 17 House seats, meaning a repeat performance will give us 56 Republican Senators and a House GOP majority.

If you think the party hierarchy wouldn't take that result in a second, you're mistaken. It all but guarantees a filibuster-proof majority in 2018. Sure, the country as a whole loses (like always), but the GOP certainly wouldn't mind Carson losing and gaining in the Senate and holding the house since he's not 'really' one of them anyway.
no, you are correct, he'd win a few more States than Mondale. But if it happens like you say I'd be ok with it. At this point the last few years have shown me the importance of who get's to pick Supreme Court justices over just about any other issue. For me it means I'll never vote for the current Republican party again and I've never voted Democrat for pres
 

TIDE-HSV

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I agree with the remarks above that too far right or too far left will not get you elected. The vast majority of the voting populace is squarely in the middle. If that weren't so, then the presidential elections, even with the strangeness of the electoral college, would not swing back and forth the way it does. I must say that this is the weirdest primary season I've ever seen, and I've been alive and aware a long time...
 

81usaf92

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Romney lost because he was nothing more than Obama Lite, and everyone knew it. You simply don't get elected governor of Massachusetts as a CONSERVATIVE - there is no such thing. Romney then managed to alienate group after group to the point that come election time he had converted millions of Republicans into Democrats for at least one cycle.

Romney couldn't exactly attack Obamacare in light of the Mass health care setup now, could he?

I do agree with you, however, that he was the spitting image of John Kerry. Both held elective office in Massachusetts - go figure....




OK, that makes a little more sense. Fact is that every single time Republicans listen to Democrats and nominate a Democrat in the wrong clothes to run for President, they lose; every time they nominate 'an extremist' by the media's standards, they win. There's a difference, of course, in a media-designated extremist and an ACTUAL extremist. Reagan was a media-designated one, David Duke or George Wallace is an actual one.



This sounds like a contradiction. First, he isn't saying anything then he's saying too much.

Believe it or not, Planned Parenthood and gay marriage are NOT going to determine who wins no matter who pretends otherwise. It will be the economy, national security, and perhaps the budget deficit like it always is. For all of the heat the abortion issue causes, it ranks maybe tenth in importance for voters - every poll always shows that same thing. Besides - the folks who consider that the most important issue split 50/50 anyway.

I'd have to actually pay attention to the candidates but since I don't really have time, I guess by the time we get to vote it will be decided in the primaries anyway.
I'll give this one last try. Rubio is just striking me as that "safe" choice candidate that republicans are clinging onto if the top two fall off. But Kerry and Romney had no shot in their elections but candidates like Lieberman in 2004 and Ron Paul in 2012 would've have a good chance. Safe choices rarely pan out. That's more of what I'm trying to say
 

day-day

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I think it's a fair point, but the problem is will the democrats exploit it with enough credibility, and will will the possibility of trump running third party actually favor the republicans instead? The south and Midwest will undoubtably go away from trump in that scenario and get behind any republican, but where it gets intresting is places like New York, New Hampshire, Illinois, and Nevada in which trump has big influence. I say Hillary and Biden would probably withstand it but sanders is way too far left to be sure, and it realistically sets up for Carson to steal states he shouldn't because trump's influence.

Sanders is probably is the one republicans want to face because the republicans can counter with a moderate

Also I don't know how much religious beliefs actually play into presidential elections. Because w was a huge fundamentalist and Barack's crazy reverend didn't derail his campaign. I understand why it is a huge issue for you, but I don't think it hinders anyone really. Heck the republicans nominated a Mormon last time
One thing the democrats are good at is exploiting any republican candidate's leanings regardless of credibility. In fact, they do this in a "non-credible" fashion and voters soak it in like a sponge. Some of the Republican candidates are too extreme or absolute in their views on specific issues and that makes them even easier targets for the Democrats.
 

92tide

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I'll give this one last try. Rubio is just striking me as that "safe" choice candidate that republicans are clinging onto if the top two fall off. But Kerry and Romney had no shot in their elections but candidates like Lieberman in 2004 and Ron Paul in 2012 would've have a good chance. Safe choices rarely pan out. That's more of what I'm trying to say
lieberman would've been trounced worse than kerry, imo.
 

81usaf92

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One thing the democrats are good at is exploiting any republican candidate's leanings regardless of credibility. In fact, they do this in a "non-credible" fashion and voters soak it in like a sponge. Some of the Republican candidates are too extreme or absolute in their views on specific issues and that makes them even easier targets for the Democrats.
Idk. Romney and McCain were safe pick guys that were just overall weaker. Dole was just in for it for the campaign money and hw just had too many blunders. I think the democrats take more of the " you are an idiot if you don't vote for me approach" more than " look at how weak they are" tatic.
 

81usaf92

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lieberman would've been trounced worse than kerry, imo.
Maybe, but he didn't get a great chance with Edwards and Kerry being polarizing figures from the get go either. Limbaugh said from the start of that election that he feared Lieberman most of all because he might actually made it an issue based election rather than an Iraq war based one. Kerry pushed the war debate the whole time but when it came down to social questions it he was mostly " I would do differently than him" kinda guy.
 

Jon

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Maybe, but he didn't get a great chance with Edwards and Kerry being polarizing figures from the get go either. Limbaugh said from the start of that election that he feared Lieberman most of all because he might actually made it an issue based election rather than an Iraq war based one. Kerry pushed the war debate the whole time but when it came down to social questions it he was mostly " I would do differently than him" kinda guy.
Lieberman was the first and only Democratic Presidential candidate I'd actually have voted for.
 

day-day

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Idk. Romney and McCain were safe pick guys that were just overall weaker. Dole was just in for it for the campaign money and hw just had too many blunders. I think the democrats take more of the " you are an idiot if you don't vote for me approach" more than " look at how weak they are" tatic.
Maybe so. Also, in their cases, it may relate to what Earle was alluding to about the general closeness of the middle voters. The Democrats found a last minute rally cry that carried enough weight to bring the swing-voters their way. "Hope and change" pushed many voters to O'Bama due to white guilt and a desire by many to show the world that the USA no longer resides in the dark ages. Many of these voters had nothing else to go own in deciding their vote so it came down to this.
 

92tide

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Maybe, but he didn't get a great chance with Edwards and Kerry being polarizing figures from the get go either. Limbaugh said from the start of that election that he feared Lieberman most of all because he might actually made it an issue based election rather than an Iraq war based one. Kerry pushed the war debate the whole time but when it came down to social questions it he was mostly " I would do differently than him" kinda guy.
i had forgotten all about pretty boy edwards. yeah, kerry left a lot to be desired and was a one trick pony, but lieberman makes dukakis look cool and his voice is like nails on a chalkboard. i don't think he would have done very well at the top of the ticket
 

ValuJet

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I always thought Lieberman sounded like the Dad character ("Willie") from Alf. Not that that's relative to the discussion.
 

81usaf92

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I always thought Lieberman sounded like the Dad character ("Willie") from Alf. Not that that's relative to the discussion.
Yeah but then again what should a president sound like? Personally I'm not a fan of Obama but compared to the last three before him he is by far the most pronounced.

My argument for Lieberman was that he would force bush to try to articulate his plans for all of the issues other than the Iraqi war. Kerry only focused on the war. Yes you could argue there isn't much difference between Kerry and Obama, but Obama was better rounded in providing info on how he planned to act upon those issues and it also helped that he was going to be the first black president and McCain had very little to offer in terms of how he was better than Gw.
 

BamaInBham

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Its a fair point. though honestly I think Romneys Mormonism cost him in the last election and the US is a far different place since Bush was last elected. Not sure that someone that fundy will ever get the call again

Your scenario btw is plausible though, far too plausible for my tastes and frankly quite scary. Carson worries me as I can't possibly understan how someone with the Scientific acumen he has an be so blind to reality.
Serious question. What specifically do you mean by "blind to reality" ?
 

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