There's no denying the fact that the loss hurts, it removes the margin of error for Alabama. However, the same basic thing happened last year and Alabama ended up with a #1 seed in the playoff, Ohio State played a softer schedule, had a far worse loss and ended up being champions. So, if Alabama can build off of where they are now, they can get better, and the path will likely be cleared. I was a very concerned about Ole Miss because of how good their team was, I never imagined it would take so many fluke plays for them to win the game.
I think a lot of people want to nitpick certain aspects of Alabama's play last game aside from the fluke plays. I'm not really sure I see that many bad things once you remove the crazy stuff. If you want me to pinpoint what I see as the biggest correctable mistake, it was to play Cooper Bateman if he wasn't going to be running the ball. Otherwise, you have a comedy of errors against a very good football team that lead to a 6 point loss. It could have been far worse.
When Jacob Coker entered the game Alabama was down 17-3 in the second quarter. He scored a touchdown, then Ole Miss, in one of the craziest plays we'll ever see scored another touchdown. At this point the fates had conspired against Alabama, Ole Miss was up 14 in the third quarter and Alabama simply couldn't play the type of game they wanted to play, and Ole Miss on the other hand had the luxury of playing exactly how they wanted to.
Then, Alabama failed on a fourth down conversion leading to three more Ole Miss points. At this point Alabama turned almost exclusively to the pass, leading to the defense being pushed back onto the field, and another three points. The route was on... supposedly. Yet, despite everything conspiring against Alabama, and some fans walking out, Alabama fought back but twice.
It's very important to try and look at how Alabama played without just looking at fluke plays and the results of playing from behind. Despite being forced to pass, and a couple ridiculous TDs from Ole Miss, with Jacob Coker in, Alabama outscored Ole Miss 34-26. If Alabama wasn't playing from behind that margin would have almost certainly been larger.
In the first half, Alabama held Ole Miss to around 100 yards and accounted for 200 yards of offense. This also means for the record that the full half Coker played results in 300 yards of offense to go along with 27 points, against a very good defense! Is that enough to be pleased with how good the team is, the fact that Alabama's offense actually did fairly well with Coker in there? No, it goes beyond that.
Turnovers:
Alabama gave up 5 turnovers, and Ole Miss gave up 0. We can stop here and acknowledge that if this stat was flipped Alabama probably blows out Ole Miss by four touchdowns or more. This is the worst margin in the Saban era and unlikely to repeat itself. But, there were also the fourth down conversions, which were in part forced due to Alabama's desperation. Alabama was 1-4 on those plays and Ole Miss was 1-2. Now, it's oversimplifying, but failing a fourth down conversion is a lot like a turnover, so let's assign -.5 to a failed one and +.5 to a successful one. That means Ole Miss ends up with a 0 on turnovers, and Alabama ends up with 6. If you told me Alabama was going to be that far behind in the turnover margin, against a team as good as Ole Miss, I'd have expected the biggest blowout loss of the Saban era, not a 6 point one.
Jacob Coker:
I believe he showed the most important quality a quarterback can have, leadership. Ole Miss knew he was going to throw, they knew they could bring pressure, they knew they could play the pass, and he still hung in there and gave better than he got. He ended up being the team's second leading rusher, and just consider this fact. The Alabama's offense was not given anything! Ole Miss had 0 turnovers. Everything Coker and the Alabama offense did, they did against adversity, generally with bad field position, against a tough defense, and with the odds stacked against them.
Defense:
It's hard to puzzle it out, but someone said if you remove all the crazy stuff Ole Miss basically scored 12 points. I think you take a look at the first half to get an idea of how good this defense is, 100 yards and every single score was off a turnover, and then the next TD was off of a fluke play. When the defense had anything to work with they did a fantastic job. I have no real concerns about this defense anymore, Alabama just doesn't turn over the ball a lot and chances are these guys will get the job done. But, once Ole Miss had a nice lead, they could play even more aggressively, they could just take shots knowing that they were just playing to pad their lead. They had no real need to sustain drives, or desperation to score points. Alabama's defense was put in a horrible situation and if anyone wants to look at those 5 turnovers and three failed fourth downs, to go along with playing from behind and judge the defense, I simply think they are being irrational.
Kicking Game:
Lost in the shuffle a bit was the suspension of the long snapper, which for a struggling punter and place kicker was really bad news. As it was, JK Scott had a solid if unspectacular outing, and Adam Griffith had by far his best game of the year. He was perfect on PATs, his kickoffs looked pretty good, he hit his first field goal (laces if I understand correctly, always a bad thing for a kicker to have to kick the laces), and he had a beautiful on-sided kick. There's plenty of reason to believe that the kicking game has turned the corner and while there might be issues going forward, we've probably seen the worse already.
This was a crazy game, and honestly if another crazy game happens Alabama could lose. But, there's usually not more than one of these a year, so logically we can just hope it's the last one. I do have areas of concern, but nothing like a loss to get a team to try and clean up their mistakes. But, in the big picture I have a lot of confidence. This defense is very good and if you give them half a chance I think they'll get the job done. This offense can move the ball against a very good defense, and I believe that if you give the offense a decent chance they'll get the job done. The special teams remains a concern, but if offensive skill players don't revert to butterfingers again we're unlikely to see a repeat of what happened.
Now, one might argue that the real fluke was not all the turnovers and crazy plays, but how Alabama's defense played in the first half, how Coker was able to lead Alabama back repeatedly (we know he has his shortcomings). Perhaps that's true, and if so we'll see, but something tells me somewhere in all the craziness we saw how great this team can be.
Edit:
I think a few valid points have been made, and I thought I might as well address them here.
Ole Miss:
So many crazy things happened, that I don't think you can just change one thing and have Alabama win. It was a series of events, and Ole Miss took advantage. To say Alabama shot themselves in the foot, or to call them fluke plays isn't intended to disparage Ole Miss. They won the game, they deserved to win the game. However, winning the game does not necessarily mean they have a better team.
Offensive Line:
The offensive line is basically the third most inexperienced OL in the SEC (overall Alabama is basically the third most inexperiened team). I expect them (like the Alabama secondary) to improve as the season progresses.
The Competition:
I believe Alabama has played three bowl teams so far. This skews the viewpoint of Alabama unfavorably. If you compare their statistics or performance, to teams playing far lesser competition it makes Alabama look worse than they actually are. For instance, Alabama's opponents won their other 6 games by a combined 378-55! Alabama has scored more points on all of their opponents than any other team did, and has held all three opponents to less points than any other team did. Had Alabama played a similar level of competition their numbers would be skewed far more favorably.
Special Teams:
Special teams is an issue which I believe can be broken down into two areas. Place kicking, which due to inherent limitations might be a lingering issue, and the rest of the special teams play which over the years has generally been very good. I expect to see Alabama have more solid play (I certainly don't expect to see two more fumbled kick returns in one game), but make no mistake, if the struggles continue it will cost Alabama. I just see no evidence that those three games are a stronger indication than general performance over the years.
Injuries:
This unfortunately will always be a factor. This team might be great, but a single injury can be the difference between a win and a loss (I still belive Vinny getting hurt before the 2013 Auburn game was the difference). So, just being a great team isn't enough, I think this team can be great but they need to stay healthy.
Hopefully those statements provide slightly better perspective on what else I had to say.
I think a lot of people want to nitpick certain aspects of Alabama's play last game aside from the fluke plays. I'm not really sure I see that many bad things once you remove the crazy stuff. If you want me to pinpoint what I see as the biggest correctable mistake, it was to play Cooper Bateman if he wasn't going to be running the ball. Otherwise, you have a comedy of errors against a very good football team that lead to a 6 point loss. It could have been far worse.
When Jacob Coker entered the game Alabama was down 17-3 in the second quarter. He scored a touchdown, then Ole Miss, in one of the craziest plays we'll ever see scored another touchdown. At this point the fates had conspired against Alabama, Ole Miss was up 14 in the third quarter and Alabama simply couldn't play the type of game they wanted to play, and Ole Miss on the other hand had the luxury of playing exactly how they wanted to.
Then, Alabama failed on a fourth down conversion leading to three more Ole Miss points. At this point Alabama turned almost exclusively to the pass, leading to the defense being pushed back onto the field, and another three points. The route was on... supposedly. Yet, despite everything conspiring against Alabama, and some fans walking out, Alabama fought back but twice.
It's very important to try and look at how Alabama played without just looking at fluke plays and the results of playing from behind. Despite being forced to pass, and a couple ridiculous TDs from Ole Miss, with Jacob Coker in, Alabama outscored Ole Miss 34-26. If Alabama wasn't playing from behind that margin would have almost certainly been larger.
In the first half, Alabama held Ole Miss to around 100 yards and accounted for 200 yards of offense. This also means for the record that the full half Coker played results in 300 yards of offense to go along with 27 points, against a very good defense! Is that enough to be pleased with how good the team is, the fact that Alabama's offense actually did fairly well with Coker in there? No, it goes beyond that.
Turnovers:
Alabama gave up 5 turnovers, and Ole Miss gave up 0. We can stop here and acknowledge that if this stat was flipped Alabama probably blows out Ole Miss by four touchdowns or more. This is the worst margin in the Saban era and unlikely to repeat itself. But, there were also the fourth down conversions, which were in part forced due to Alabama's desperation. Alabama was 1-4 on those plays and Ole Miss was 1-2. Now, it's oversimplifying, but failing a fourth down conversion is a lot like a turnover, so let's assign -.5 to a failed one and +.5 to a successful one. That means Ole Miss ends up with a 0 on turnovers, and Alabama ends up with 6. If you told me Alabama was going to be that far behind in the turnover margin, against a team as good as Ole Miss, I'd have expected the biggest blowout loss of the Saban era, not a 6 point one.
Jacob Coker:
I believe he showed the most important quality a quarterback can have, leadership. Ole Miss knew he was going to throw, they knew they could bring pressure, they knew they could play the pass, and he still hung in there and gave better than he got. He ended up being the team's second leading rusher, and just consider this fact. The Alabama's offense was not given anything! Ole Miss had 0 turnovers. Everything Coker and the Alabama offense did, they did against adversity, generally with bad field position, against a tough defense, and with the odds stacked against them.
Defense:
It's hard to puzzle it out, but someone said if you remove all the crazy stuff Ole Miss basically scored 12 points. I think you take a look at the first half to get an idea of how good this defense is, 100 yards and every single score was off a turnover, and then the next TD was off of a fluke play. When the defense had anything to work with they did a fantastic job. I have no real concerns about this defense anymore, Alabama just doesn't turn over the ball a lot and chances are these guys will get the job done. But, once Ole Miss had a nice lead, they could play even more aggressively, they could just take shots knowing that they were just playing to pad their lead. They had no real need to sustain drives, or desperation to score points. Alabama's defense was put in a horrible situation and if anyone wants to look at those 5 turnovers and three failed fourth downs, to go along with playing from behind and judge the defense, I simply think they are being irrational.
Kicking Game:
Lost in the shuffle a bit was the suspension of the long snapper, which for a struggling punter and place kicker was really bad news. As it was, JK Scott had a solid if unspectacular outing, and Adam Griffith had by far his best game of the year. He was perfect on PATs, his kickoffs looked pretty good, he hit his first field goal (laces if I understand correctly, always a bad thing for a kicker to have to kick the laces), and he had a beautiful on-sided kick. There's plenty of reason to believe that the kicking game has turned the corner and while there might be issues going forward, we've probably seen the worse already.
This was a crazy game, and honestly if another crazy game happens Alabama could lose. But, there's usually not more than one of these a year, so logically we can just hope it's the last one. I do have areas of concern, but nothing like a loss to get a team to try and clean up their mistakes. But, in the big picture I have a lot of confidence. This defense is very good and if you give them half a chance I think they'll get the job done. This offense can move the ball against a very good defense, and I believe that if you give the offense a decent chance they'll get the job done. The special teams remains a concern, but if offensive skill players don't revert to butterfingers again we're unlikely to see a repeat of what happened.
Now, one might argue that the real fluke was not all the turnovers and crazy plays, but how Alabama's defense played in the first half, how Coker was able to lead Alabama back repeatedly (we know he has his shortcomings). Perhaps that's true, and if so we'll see, but something tells me somewhere in all the craziness we saw how great this team can be.
Edit:
I think a few valid points have been made, and I thought I might as well address them here.
Ole Miss:
So many crazy things happened, that I don't think you can just change one thing and have Alabama win. It was a series of events, and Ole Miss took advantage. To say Alabama shot themselves in the foot, or to call them fluke plays isn't intended to disparage Ole Miss. They won the game, they deserved to win the game. However, winning the game does not necessarily mean they have a better team.
Offensive Line:
The offensive line is basically the third most inexperienced OL in the SEC (overall Alabama is basically the third most inexperiened team). I expect them (like the Alabama secondary) to improve as the season progresses.
The Competition:
I believe Alabama has played three bowl teams so far. This skews the viewpoint of Alabama unfavorably. If you compare their statistics or performance, to teams playing far lesser competition it makes Alabama look worse than they actually are. For instance, Alabama's opponents won their other 6 games by a combined 378-55! Alabama has scored more points on all of their opponents than any other team did, and has held all three opponents to less points than any other team did. Had Alabama played a similar level of competition their numbers would be skewed far more favorably.
Special Teams:
Special teams is an issue which I believe can be broken down into two areas. Place kicking, which due to inherent limitations might be a lingering issue, and the rest of the special teams play which over the years has generally been very good. I expect to see Alabama have more solid play (I certainly don't expect to see two more fumbled kick returns in one game), but make no mistake, if the struggles continue it will cost Alabama. I just see no evidence that those three games are a stronger indication than general performance over the years.
Injuries:
This unfortunately will always be a factor. This team might be great, but a single injury can be the difference between a win and a loss (I still belive Vinny getting hurt before the 2013 Auburn game was the difference). So, just being a great team isn't enough, I think this team can be great but they need to stay healthy.
Hopefully those statements provide slightly better perspective on what else I had to say.
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