New AP Poll October 11th
- Thread starter CLINT
- Start date
If an SEC team can win the SEC championship while remaining undefeated or with a single loss, they will likely in the playoff. I do not see four teams in other conferences going undefeated and blocking a 1 loss SEC champ out. But for the Tide to win the SEC, OM is going to have to be beaten by a SEC west team. There is no way that the Tide, even with a single loss, is going to make it in over the SEC champion, and the committee is not going to put two SEC teams in the final four, no matter what. So the Tide does not control it's destiny at this point.
Yes, and guess who gets a week off this week right before playing us. You guessed it- Tennessee, and then LSU has the week off before us, too. I don't count that one, though, because we also have that week off.
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22Musso22
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Ole Miss already beat Vandy so any SEC loss would be from the West.
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Well, first I was a big supporter of the BCS system, not necessarily the AP poll. I think having the computers in with the other two polls helped remove most bias and inserted logic into the equation. Also, the crystal ball had history, the AP trophy has history, this playoff is just... what everyone else does, it just doesn't mean as much to me. Having said that, I think the AP did get better and I would put more faith in them than the committee.
The main reason is this simple, the committee was poisoned from day one. They were formed in the aftermath of an all SEC BCSCG, and they have been tasked with taking conference championships into play. Now, that was a non-factor last season but it could be at any point and until it's removed as a criteria that will always have that bias. The injuries aspect are worse to me though, and this brings the small committee into question. This current committee might indeed be ok, but all it takes is one or two bad applies and the entire thing can be entirely wrecked. You get a few people in there that decide a loss doesn't count, or a win doesn't count due to injuries and they can turn that whole thing upside down. There was no need for the committee, the BCS formulate worked great, but it committed the unforgivable sin of putting two SEC teams in a championship game, it was too unbiased.
Ok, I would note one thing that you might be overlooking would be conference championship games. This is a big test for most teams. We've seen plenty of teams derailed by that, the SEC is pretty much the only conference that hasn't had a team tripped up in that game.
But, really it's more simple than that. There are basically 6 parties which all have a direct path to the playoffs. The Power 5 and Notre Dame. If those 6 parties all have an undefeated team then you have an issue. That's not going to happen though, since Notre Dame lost and they don't have a conference championship game to earn them bonus points. They have removed themselves from the equation unless more teams lose.
This leaves the 5 conferences. I was watching the TCU game last night and thinking what would need to happen if TCU lost. For Alabama to have a direct, control their own destiny path to the playoffs, all they would have needed would have been for TCU to win out and Ole Miss to lose. Now that's just one scenario, but that's a pretty clean and straight forward one right?
Notre Dame is stuck behind Alabama now, if the Big 12 ends up with a one loss champion again, they will be stuck behind Alabama as well. And that's all Alabama needs. But, for all this worry, Alabama went in last year as a one seed (over an undefeated team) after being in a nearly identical position. If Alabama can win, the odds of their getting in, as long as there are no committee shenanigans, will be very, very high.
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Based on my observations, Michigan will destroy Ohio State. I don't see Ohio State making the final four this year.
Yep, If Ole Miss wins all their remaining games, they are going to the SEC championship game, and we will be home watching them play, even if we win all our remaining games. The Tide just needs to focus on one game at a time and take care of business. We are not out of the playoff picture yet, but we are facing an uphill battle. For certain, there are going to be upsets in the coming weeks and about two thirds of the top ranked will take a loss.
This is so true - obviously I want another SEC championship and the playoffs, but Bama is so Jekyll / Hyde this season that thinking about a playoff spot seems borderline silly.
The OSU-Michigan rivalry has been about as thrilling to watch and as difficult to predict the winner as the Bama-Tennessee rivalry for the exact same time period. Completely one-sided and never seriously in doubt.
It's great for the fans of the (winning) schools involved, I enjoy whooping Tenn every year, but about as must-watch nationally as Harvard vs Princeton.
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Audio, I'm the biggest Bama fan in history, but we're not a playoff contender.
We're too young and we're just not very good overall at critical positions.
People get mad at me when I post this, but we truly could lose our next three games.
I hope we don't, but we COULD.
It's no sin to just be 'pretty good" for a season.
Our kids need a chance to grow up, and if Bama fans can't live with that, then maybe they need to get a better hobby.
sip
Let's just state the obvious... If either tcu or Baylor are undefeated then they are not going to be penalized for not having one this time.
Also the conferences you are taking about are division heavy. MSU only derailed tOSU because they were in opposite divisions that year but now are on the same one so the winner of that side is playing most likely whisky.
The acc... Forget about it unless Miami finds a way back or gt or vt finally learn to play a competitive game.
PAC 12- I'll say this is the best shot out of all of them. Stanford might beat Utah if they are still unblemished, but Utah is better than them.
Allow me to point out that at this time last year, the talk was whether or not Alabama could still get into the playoff with an undefeated Ole Miss team. Let that sink in, Ole Miss, the team that finished with four losses had many people fearing they would not lose a single game. If that doesn't tell you how easily people can underestimate the difficulty of upcoming games, I'm not sure what can. Who tripped up Oklahoma St. and put Alabama in the 2011 championship game? It was Iowa State, a dreadful team. Mark my words, you are not going to have 4 undefeated teams from the Power 5. It's not going to happen. The closest we've had to that in recent memory would be 2009 in which TCU, Boise State, Cincinnati, Texas, and Alabama all finished the season undefeated. Only three of those teams were from automatic qualifying conferences.
Anyway, at this point last year people were also still wondering if Alabama could get in. They didn't just get in, they were the #1 seed, meaning at least two more Power 5 teams could have been undefeated and they still would have been in the playoff with room to spare. Mind you, I said the whole time if Alabama won out I thought they'd get in, and it wasn't even close.
As to other posts about Alabama's chances of winning out, I'd have to agree they do not favor Alabama. Just considering the Texas A&M, LSU, and SECCG game all present huge obstacles, and you can't exactly look bpast Miss. State and the rivalry games. But, Alabama is evolving and they just have to evolve more. Ohio State wasn't a playoff worthy team early last year, but things worked out ok for them.
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Didn't I clearly state barring an upset in the first post you responded to. I never said that they won't lose just that the rational odds are against us. I highly think any sane person said isu was going to beat okie lite, so I stick with my assessment that unless someone just gets those teams they have pretty favorable schedules.
Sorry, but this just is not true in this rivalry. If you haven't watched the game in the last ten years, you have missed some great games decided in the last possession.
In the UM/OSU rivalry you really can throw out the rankings and records. Not only does the underdog win on a regular basis, these games are very rarely blowouts.
Some of you guys should look around the country a little more. There are some awesome traditions in this sport outside of the southeast. You are missing out.
Honestly, the odds of 12-1 Alabama being left out because 4 other teams are undefeated are pretty slim. The odds of going undefeated are always poor no matter the schedule, because winning 12 or 13 games in a row is harder to do than winning one individual game, no matter the team you may be up against. It has to do with the way odds stack in a series, take OSU this year as a perfect example, we were the 90+% favorite in virtually all of our games this year, yet still only had a 70 something % chance to run the table. The odds of any team going undefeated no matter how talented are usually around 50% or less, the OSU case is an outlier, so the odds of team A + team B + team C + team D all running the table are slim at best. The odds of that happening while Alabama is sitting there as the 12-1 SEC Champs are virtually 0 I would imagine.
There are other games I would prefer to watch over OSU-UM most years. I have zero attachment to either school. It simply has not been a nationally relevant game.
South Carolina - Clemson is always a big game for me to watch and that game hasn't been nationally relevant since, well, never.
No one is saying OSU-UM isn't important to the schools and fans. But you can't point to a game since 06 that had any impact on the national title picture other than "will OSU lose". That is all anyone is saying.
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